Member Info for PUTUP

Yawn

Easy Jxp.

Ps: GKP’s balance sheet isn’t much help. It’s greatly distorted by the (improper) difference between the depreciation of capex/fixed assets and cost recovery (fully recovered). GKP doesn’t actually own much of anything except its cash on hand and a right to the receivables. As an accountant you should understand this. If you don’t, you’d be best advised to give it a lot of consideration. ATB

Don't follow them too closely. In general, I think it has no real reason to exist. Would love to see GKP buy out/merge with DNO's operations - and take out Genel's interest - in Kurdistan.

I should really add the Bot to the rest of the green lines on my screen. Never - never - has anything useful to contribute.

Good luck Jxp!

Mulder, there was plenty of incentive without a push from the US State Department. I don't think they've been decisive at all. But hey ho I don't care how they get there so long as exports restart. Without that the stock would be worth a lot less than now.

Jxp, there's good potential for healthy dividends going forward. But 2022 was 'abnormal'. Then the company was recovering the off-balance sheet CRP asset and paying it out - essentially returning prior debt and equity capital (rather than just operating free cash flow) to shareholders. Apart from the receivables, those days are gone. Free cash flow from normal operations (excl receivables recovery) this year will likely be closer to $55 million (+/-) assuming all oil is exported from April onwards. And that includes the last of the supernormal cost recovery in the first two months of the year and a constrained, batten-down-the-hatches capex and opex outlook. Invest more and that figure falls (as profit oil is diverted to cost oil). Likely the first thing the company needs to invest in is more water handling equipment just to stabilize the falling production capacity. Growth, even back to the previously touched-for-a-moment 55k, probably requires drilling. We will have to see what manage says once the dust has settled on export restart. Have a great weekend.

I'd like to see them pay out all the receivables and only reinvest recurring business cash flow - and then only invest once a good deal of the receivables is recovered. So, as I've said before, I don't see much growth before late 26.

They are hogging too much capital. But anything paid out just comes off the value of the company. Better to focus on cash generation rather than cash distribution.

I don't expect a takeover anytime soon. But £3 per share would be awesome. Bang gone.

$

Or the receivables get reinvested in the field.

Dividends don't excite me. They pay cash out of the company. What excites me are the variables that allow for their payment - all those that contribute to cash flow generation rather than paying it out.

We begin collecting the receivables in March. They are, of course, a one-off. I currently expect a payment plan over two years with $57 million recovered this year (all factored into my valuation). (IF - a big IF - the cost component is allowed to be recovered in 'normal' fashion (ie as part of the CRP and not as receivables per se) they could be recovered faster.) Receivables recovery compensates - for a while - the drop in cash generation from the normalisation of the CRP. Don't forget why the company was able to pay such big dividends historically.

Truthsayer, I have circa $112 million for end of February (versus $102 million end of year '24). I expect a dividend of $30 million although they ought to pay out much more.

I see Norges keeps accumulating. Some healthy off-market trades continue. Good to see continued rotation of the shareholder register.

Delay? What made anyone think things would be fast given all that needs to be sorted out? I’d say things are progressing nicely. Not so long ago the IOCs weren’t even a party to discussions. Excessive expectations will continually disappoint.

I answered this question quite some time ago if you want to scroll back. (I’m poolside in the Caribbean so won’t be checking for the figure again anytime soon.)

Lots to be sorted out with the IOCs. Company working their way through all the details. Personally I’m still expecting April for export restart but happy if it’s sooner - so long as we have an agreed path for arrears recovery. Restart (and arrears recovery) in the price already but girlies are likely to ensure things overshoot for a bit.

Buying the dip

You have no understanding of stock based compensation. How do you think HMRC is paid?

Some nice off-book trades today. Someone still accumulating.

Cookoo cookoo

stuff him in a wooden clock

Jeez someone left the door to the asylum unlocked...

Another one in the bin.

What I wrote is correct

I doubt it. You can't sell something you haven't got. An award was made some time ago. Some (or all) will have vested/exercised which creates a tax event (employment compensation). The sale to cover taxes is likely an election made at the time the compensation agreement was entered into (or when the award was made). It's quite normal. Thereafter he holds the stock as a capital position (subject to capital gains taxes if applicable). (If I were bullish I'd prefer to have gains from here be capital gains rather than employment income.)

Carry on. Nothing to see here.

Of more relevance will be the award of further zero-cost options to GKP management two weeks after the annual results in March and the vesting of some of the prior grants.