Member Info for PUTUP

"I think cost savings they promised last year should be reflected in their next update. Which will help the turnaround."

Personally I don't think we get that this update. But simply a stabilisation and settling of sentiment is all that's needed to return the stock to 120p. The cost reduction strategy will show later and justify a much higher sp.

The state oil fund of Norway

Norges is an asset manager not a bank. SWF.

Broken resistance but with a very extended RSI. Let’s see how far we run.

BTW HGNAHMED, under local sales via the KRG we would have begun recovering the arrears in just 4-5 weeks' time... It all comes down to how SOMO will treat the CRP. Technically, the costs in arrears haven't been recovered and so are still in the CRP (and available for invoicing/recovery) but I'm sure there's an argument that the KRG owe them and not ICG/SOMO. Let's see how it unfolds.

It would be logical to conclude so given they've recently increased their shareholding.

Unfortunately I don't believe those statements have anything to do with the arrears. (Rather they reference adjustments to the payments made on the provisional $16 per barrel.)

But I do expect GKP to recover them over the next two years. Faster would be better still.

Blame on the big bad wolves. Anything other than accepting personal responsibility...

Sorry for your loss Bondsan, but that's on you.

The firms that restructured the company didn't defraud you. In fact, they offered you participation in the restructured company. The fact that ridiculous hopes and dreams burnt to the ground was not their fault. Blame Todd, his crew and excessive greed for that.

You are applying a multiple applicable to situations where one owns the field. GKP/MOL do not. They execute the development strategy of the owner for a small slice of the profits. Don't forget that.

If ever there was a lesson from all of that it ought to have been to value commonsense rather than hype. Rog has that.

No one can time a trade sale like that

Good. There needs to be considerable turnover of the shareholder register into fresh hands.

Stock undoubtedly being marketed as acquisition candidate.

Rider, personally I don't see much in the way of possible positive surprises. As I have noted, I think a lot is in the price. Maybe I get comfortable paying now for 55k production even though I think they will be late 2H 2026 at best. That's about 11p per share in my model. But I don't seen any positive surprises to near-term production, export restart, receivables recovery etc that are worth much more than what I think is embedded. (If anything potential delays are more likely.) Doesn't mean I'm right but that's my view. So I expect a general accrual at circa 15% pa for now.

The really big possible upside is the price at which Shaikan oil is sold at. The historical discount of $23.20 plus $9 for the 'KBT discount' is a really deep discount (even if it includes transportation costs). Even knocking the $9 off would be worth a lot as I outlined below. I've absolutely no clue whether this would be possible and hence I use the situation prior to pipeline closure as my guide for now.

GLA. Off to the beach now.

PS: Dividends pay out value, they don't create value. Only unexpected cash generation within the business adds to value. Expected cash generation 'earns' the discount rate applied to it. Paying out that which was expected to be generated merely trades stock price for cash in hand.

Mary going giddy-up when we are near the top instead of when we're in the dip

The interesting question is, if the KRG is handing over production volumes to SOMO, is GKP still able to get paid upfront? What price is the oil sold at? Also, in March the CRP will have run out and under local sales with the KRG we’d recover some arrears. But now? So many key issues to be resolved… Hopefully we get some clarity in the near future if any is available.

Opu’s back. Yes he’s back. Yes he’s back. Trailer park girl?

Btw I expect the company to have the cash to announce a $30 million dividend in March. But of course that just comes straight out of the stock value.

Rider, a good question and one I continue to think about. Obviously if there is no change (improvement or degradation) to the fundamentals then I’d expect to earn 15% going forward. Absent other opportunities that’s not a disaster but of course one needs to think about just how much money one should have in a bet like this. (I’ve had more in it before and seen it evaporated significantly.) If some of the upside potential I’ve outlined happens sooner than I expect there’s more to gain. The risk, obviously, is things don’t go as well or as fast as planned. One other factor: the great potential for retail shareholders here to pay for a lot of (extra) future potential today rather than letting the near future pan out. Probably not a good thing to ever rely on but the track record is there. Certainly if we move more sharply higher in the near term or if I have other use of the funds I’d probably sell some more. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

GLA

Not sure how 'trading' got corrected to 'terracing'. LOL

An entry at 52p was always unlikely to reward in the near term. I expect we might have to wait until late this year or 2026 for a turning point. But the terracing range provides plenty of opportunity. Buy the dips (below 40p) and sell the rallies. Another nice tick today. Up 44% from the low now. Not bad in 2 1/2 months.

Yep. At some point. Drill for growth. The question is how much potential to pay for up front today?

Well fellas it's been a good day. First, in full disclosure I took the opportunity to take profit on 10% of my position today. I didn't get the best execution but it will do (average 189p).

It's worth thinking about what's now in the price (round number 190p) and what upside is left. Here's my 2p:

1. Export restart at Brent less $32 from circa early April this year. The $32 is the previous discount of $23 and a $9 discount for KBT, again as previously.

2. A 15% discount rate (vs my previously used 20%)

3. Full recovery of the arrears over the next two years ($57 million net to GKP this year, balance over the subsequent 15 months)

4. An average 43.5k production this year vs management guidance of 40-45k. I'm assuming $75 Brent in Q2 and $72.50 for 2H in line with oil analyst forecasts.

5. 50k production from next year in perpetuity (with Brent averaging $65 forever and the discount mentioned above).

Where's the upside? In no particular order...

1. Higher oil prices obviously but they're outside management control. But maybe there's a chance to work with SOMO can achieve a lower discount for Shaikan oil. The "KBT discount" alone has a massive impact, roughly 45-50p per share on 50k of production. No surprise it's introduction slammed the stock in March '23 before the pipeline shutdown nailed the coffin.

2. Of course, if one is prepared to accept a lower return then lowering the discount rate increases value today. 15% is likely about as low as I'd go for a single stock in a sh*t-show location, but your risk tolerances may be different.

3. Faster recovery of arrears? Only very limited impact unfortunately, but areas recovery opens the door to...

4. Drilling for growth. Management have guided that current field capacity is falling 6-10% per annum. To keep production constant let alone achieve growth they need to 'drill, baby drill.' Before they can drill they need IMO to - at least - restart exports, have confidence in contract sanctity, get regular payments, review a new FDP with SOMO and recover at least a large portion of the arrears. As a result, currently I don't see any significant production growth this year or next, but maybe we will see some results in 2027 and beyond.

There's still a massive amount for management to now work out even just to restart exports, but yesterday provides the opportunity to start.

GLA

@AlmaCogan 🤣🤣