Member Info for PUTUP

Ah Longstrong, those with unrealistic expectations and feeble (if any) analysis will always have "a hold load of hope dashed" (sic). Others (I wouldn't place Itsa in this bucket either) have realistic expectations of the future and the ability to examine those to gain a sense of what's already in the stock price.

Choose an investment strategy based solely on hope at your peril.

If

(a) your believe the pipeline will reopen in Q2, and

(b) you believe the arrears will be recovered over the last three quarters of this year, 2026 and 1Q 2027

then Hold for circa 20% return (including dividends). (a) (b) and 48k production (more than management expect for this year) are priced in. If you want to be more bullish (eg by paying today for greater production) by all means bid the stock up. That's if you have any cash left to bet on hope.

14 day RSI now back to 'middle of the road' levels. The weekly is more elevated but no longer extended.

The stock is up 22% since it was first announced. No "slide" yet.

"maybe knock back or discard the exports starting this year also??"

That would whack valuation quite a bit. Essentially by the amount of arrears recovery I am expecting. (Receipts from continuing operations would be much lower although we'd still gather the arrears versus assuming a bump up in cash flow from continuing operations from exports plus the areas recovery.) That equates to about a 20p per share hit to value. (Quick back of the envelope math.)

Reducing my production forecasts (now 43.5k average of the year) to be more in line with management expectations reduces operating free cash (assuming export restart in April) down to $58 million (from $65 million). Add to this the $57 million of one-off arrears recovery. Knocks about 5-6p off my YE fair value target - now $183p. Discounted to end-January that's 155p. All cum-dividend. (That's if I still value for 48k production from 2026 and beyond even when December '25 is likely going to be closer to 44/45k. Growth looks ever more distant.)

Also embedded in my expectations (and price targets) is the recovery of $57 million of arrears this year

Rog your $65 million of free cash flow generation is the same as mine BEFORE marking down to the lower production guidance. I need to update my numbers for the lower expectations.

Screw a meagre 13% return for this risk. I require more.

Yet again the girlies got all giddy last week. The grind of reality is slower and more arduous.

Ugh

"2025 gross average production is expected to be in the range of 40,000 to 45,000 bopd"

That is way below what I have currently factored in (48k).

"Estimated 2025 net capex of $25-$30 million"

I have $40 million Gross but that was with the hope that 48k could be maintained

"Exploring a range of additional plant initiatives to enhance production, including water handling,"

As I outlined previously...

Overall, rather disappointing.

"While Iraqi Parliament approval of the amendment could be an important step towards the resumption of exports, a number of key details remain outstanding regarding payment surety for future oil exports, the repayment of outstanding receivables and the preservation of current contract economics.

Gulf Keystone remains ready to engage with the Government of Iraq and Kurdistan Regional Government to clarify key terms and finalise written agreements prior to resuming oil exports."

A reminder that there is a lot to be rectified beyond just the oil and gas law.

Still need a lot of shareholder rotation for substantial gains. Steady as she goes. Nice gains from below 40p.

1. There's an article in today's Financial Times but I'm sure it is reported elsewhere as well

2. My speculation of course. Were I to have any particular non-public information I could not trade the share nor share it here (or elsewhere)

What shame we can't purchase a seat and popcorn

What a sh*t show. I think I will keep demanding at least a 20% return from GKP for awhile yet...

Welcome back. And Happy New Year. I'd still be interested in your short and medium term views as to where the stock goes here. I see support on dips around 36p, resistance around 60p and 'fair value' around 2.5x that. I think the company gets sold somewhere in between those two higher numbers (and us dragged into the sale at the same level). The Reeves news today was not surprising in my view.

I doubt Trump has much effect on oil. First, it’s an internationally traded commodity with lots of players (demand as well as supply) affecting price. Second, the U.S. is already at extremely high levels of production. Trump’s “peasantry” wants lower oil prices not firmer but Trump has never intended to cater to his peasantry. He favours “his people” the oligarchy forming around him.

A lot is already in the GKP stock price (return to exports, arrears recovery etc). Other than the steady tick as they execute according to expectations we need growth to propel gains beyond that. Personally I think that’s 2H 2026 at best. Right now we’ll need to drill just to keep production where it is. Luckily the share price isn’t asking us to pay for growth yet. Sit back and enjoy the laborious trip to circa 190p by year end (adjusting that downward for any dividends paid out).

LOL. They haven’t declared a dividend and won’t until the FY results in March. So expect some time in April.

Holding up remarkably well so far all things considered. Let’s see if it continues to do so.

I doubt he even understands the issue let alone cares about it

With luck, in 2026.

It's worth noting that on a weekly basis the 14 week RSI hasn't been this high since....drum roll....the stock touched 321p in June '22.

Not sure what you mean by that. Generally I don't feel compelled to advertise here the trading strategies of friends. I did, however, in this one instance, indicate when he trimmed on my advice. And I mentioned, albeit later, that he had bought back in. He traded the dip. Good on him. His 100k or so shares are in an ISA which offers, as we all know, advantages re no capital gains tax and low trading fees. For example, each and every time GKP's RSI has become overextended (above 70, and less often below 30) there's been a quick correction. That needn't last long - only enough for the RSI to ease - but it is a well-proven short term trading strategy in this stock. Back cast it if you want. (The last example, from 161, offered less gain and a shorter turnaround but nonetheless panned out as well.) Currently the 14 day RSI is 75.

(My much larger position isn't in an ISA and I'm much less inclined to trade the short-term ups and downs... even if it is fun to try to call them.)