Member Info for PUTUP

Starsalign, if we look at 2025 and put arrears recovery off to one side for a moment as it is not recurring cash flow, the difference between exports with Brent at $72 and a $32.20 discount (same as prior to export closure) and domestic sales at $27 is almost a two-fold increase in free cash flow generation (c$60 million versus c$33 million). Funnily enough the CFO is right.

Exports also provide greater scope for faster receivables recovery - a one-off but still better to get the sooner rather than later.

You need help. It's becoming rather sad. There only two people in my filter bin: NoBull (complete inability to think for himself with respect to buybacks) and a complete d*ckhead Andy1022. Many others should probably be in there with them but it would be a shame to put you in the same room as well. . Get a grip.

(Oh and BluNord has been a nice ride as well from below 140 NOK)

Ah Stray Cat, I really should have you on filter (and will likely do so now).

"PUTUP, only climbed in @ ca.80p"

Far better to be in at 80p and already recovered multiples of your initial investment than be long and wrong at much higher prices. The opportunity I saw was recovery of the then very large cost pool which was not at all factored in the then stock price. (It's the same opportunity seen by those who played the company's restructuring.) It's paid off nicely. The only historical cost pool left to recover is that which is in the receivables. There hasn't been much production growth and my investment thesis didn't need it.

Currently, I value 48k production going forward at about 70p per share. The rest of the company's current worth is either stuck in cash or stuck in the overdue receivables, both non-producing assets. The 70p already assumes current contract terms, export restart very early next year and sales prices relative to Brent in line with that which existed prior to pipeline closure. That's a lot to assume. For that 70p to go significantly higher (ignoring a sharp drop in the £) one or several of the following need to occur: risk has to dramatically reduce (lower discount rate), better sales pricing has to be achieved (don't forget the move to KBT pricing dropped the stock before pipeline closure did) or there's real growth. I don't doubt that some of these might occur. We await the first, will have to wait longer for the second most likely and even longer for the third. I would not expect the company to make major investment in the CRP until risk has lowered dramatically and a substantial amount of the receivables have been recovered. Go ahead and pay for all of these upfront today - please. Those expecting this portion of value to go up multiple times in the short term are delusional.

"Just imagine the pain of the real LTHs…not that he cares one jot."

Nope. People need to own their own mistakes. This isn't a playground for whiners. (My own mistake on GKP was not dumping my entire holding above £3 when I had the opportunity to do so. I should have been totally out 2 1/2 years ago. And likely back in since.) Live and learn.

"Now he’s trapped"

I can sell at any time so far from trapped. And I'm well in the money even ignoring all the dividends I've received. I'm also happy with a 20% expected return. Should the stock rally to a point where I think expected returns are too low then I will, of course, sell. A 4 and 1/2 year investment is far from short term.

The only one that needs to grow up is you. For someone that doesn't care what I think you sure do post a lot about me. Get a grip. You're losing it.

As for Vanquis, I will happily discuss that on the appropriate board. (60p isn't my exit price, more like 2-3x that over the next 18 months or so, although I may well trade the range at the margin for now. An entry below 40p has been nice there so far.) (Oh and BluNord has been a nice ride as w

Why would you expect one to be announced now? They've already guided on timing of distributions. Plus, in the two months since the last update they've added a mere $5m to cash balances. You'll have to wait until March.

Starsalign, I had 45.9k for Oct, 22k for Nov and have 48k for Dec. So the announced production numbers are weaker than expected. Anyone saying the announcement is good news is delusional. But I agree that production is low enough and sales prices low enough that the absolute negative delta is modest. But then so are the monthly receipts. As for completing maintenance work, I don't think the company doing what they said they were going to do is great news - just par for the course. The really disappointing part of the update is that it's clear they're not having discussions regarding restart of exports, contracts, FDP etc etc. The company remains in limbo. I was hoping for something positive here although was prepared to be disappointed. I'm now going to push out my assumption of export restart (again) to 1 April. There's a lot embedded in the current stock price (current cash, export restart early next year, full recovery of receivable etc etc). By early next month the CRP ex that in the receivables will be fully recovered and we can begin partial receivable recovery. I value the receivables at 43p per share versus their nominal 52p with recovery assumed equally over the next 24 months. Monthly cash flows remain flattered by one-off recovery of past expenditure.

(Unwin needs to look further than one nose length. If he can.)

Hmmm. Weaker than expected production. Also, it's clear they're not having talks with KRG/ICG regarding restart (I'm not surprised there). They, too, are simply waiting.

Qube Research went to 0.49% on the 4th (from 0.51%) and Citadel did the same on 18 November. Thereafter they (and any others) don't have to declare.

No significant resistance until 61 ish. RSI needed to ease though. Healthy day today.

Mary what's your exposure here (# of shares) and average cost? Based on your posts it would seem you've gotten this horribly wrong to date, not that it might not come right in the long term... And what's your expectation for the stock, say, 18 months out?

Agreed. The KRG can no longer independently export oil. It will be SOMO/ICG negotiating any contract extension.

They will be long something else against it. You can't only look at one leg of the trade.

That is already underway. Individuals will still have free access to the FOS while CMCs will have to pay £250 per claim

Buy the dips. Sell the blips. Middle of trading range now.

I doubt my friend thinks it was hindsight.

I'm glad I told a friend to trip last week at 150. Should have followed my own advice.

RSI shows plenty of scope for moving higher before being overbought. Onward.

We're likely due an operational update in the near future which would include commentary on the maintenance

"Doubt it'll go to 60p in a straight line up tho."

Of course not

You miss the point completely