Latest from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley12 Nov 2024 19:10
The 2025 Surplus Remains Unresolved
Uncertainties around the Middle East and US presidential
election are past their peaks for now, which leaves the outlook
dominated by the expected surplus in 2025. As demand
continues to come in below expectations, this surplus remains
on the horizon. We lower price forecasts modestly to reflect this.
November 12, 2024 07:00 PM GMT
Key Takeaways
We lower our full-year demand forecast from 0.95 to 0.8 mb/d for 2024, and from 1.1 to 0.95 mb/d for 2025. In total, our 2025 demand estimate falls 0.4 mb/ d.
Still, we also lower our OPEC supply estimate by a similar 0.4 mb/d in 2025, based on the one-month delay, better compliance in Iraq, and lower exports from Iran.
In turn, this leaves our estimate for a 1.3 mb/d surplus in 2025 intact. Whist this surplus remains on the horizon, risks to prices probably remain skewed lower.
Looking ahead to the 1 Dec OPEC meeting, our base-case expectation is that after the recent adjustment, the current OPEC+ agreement now remains unchanged.
The outcome of the US election can impact oil prices considerably over time, but offsetting effects make the direction hard to call, probably for a while.
New Brent price estimates:
1Q25 old 77.5 new 72
2Q25 old 75 new 70
3Q25 old 72.5 new 68
4Q25 old 70 new 66
2026 old 75 new 70