Member Info for PUTUP

The issue, of course, with the numbers I mention below is that they include minimal investment. Just enough to try to slow the loss of field production capacity. Where the $16 will become important is when we want to invest for growth. If the $16 is only lifting costs plus capex recovery there's plenty of headroom for investment. If it's all costs then there isn't much room at all. It's all TBD.

"would see half the revenue that have receiving for the local sales"

You are correct that there's a lot of detail that has to be worked out as well as engagement with the actual IOCs, but I don't think the above is correct. What's important is (a) sanctity of contracts and (b) defining what's in - or out - of "costs" as far as the inter KRG/ICG arrangement is concerned. If we have (a) there's no doubt that the better pricing achieved by export means greater receipts (all else being equal). It just so happens, however, that export restart is likely to occur at the same time or after the benefits of excess cost recovery run out (CRP normalisation). That leaves forecast receipts in my model largely flat between February (local sales) and June through December (under exports). That's ignoring the question of the receivables and the cost component therein. As for (b) and which costs are 'in the $16' versus out, there's a lot of uncertainty. Is it just the cost of extraction and capex recovery? Does it include transportation and pipeline costs? Does it include the 'profit oil' component of the IOCs contracts? FWIW currently expected lifting costs and capex recovery for GKP/MOL this year are well below $16 - below $7 in fact. Add in profit oil and they're still under $16 - closer to $13.

Good news. Feeling good about my assumption of export restart beginning April 1.

Longstrong, be aware you are double counting here. By March all the historical costs will have been recovered except for those in the arrears invoices. Receipts (gross and pre the deduction of CBC) only ‘double’ if GKP can re-invoice those costs. If they can the receivables are reduced by that amount. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to who will be liable for the arrears and particularly the cost component therein as the sale proceeds for those months have already been banked by the KRG. What is certain however is that we won’t get to recover the same costs twice.

GLA

As I've stated, my year end target (cum dividend) is currently 183p. We aren't even there yet so there's no need to re-evaluate assumptions. That target is based on some conservative assumptions, not least a 20% required return, but also some big ones like export restart (April or thereabouts) and a programme of arrears recovery (I assume, for now, over two years). I'm also expecting some additional investment beyond current management guidance to help stem the fall in field capacity. If all those things fall into place during the course of this year and all looks rosy there's upside beyond that. But I'm not prepared to pay for that today. Let's see how things go. If the share price demands that I pay for a lot more today without there being additional progress in fundamentals then, yes, I'd sell. If the actual fundamentals and progress demonstrate the validity of more optimistic forecasts then I will adjust them upwards. What I don't do is sit here thinking we should be at £3 because "all the negative speculation" has disappeared and that should be "the price to expect now if oil starts flowing" simply because at one point, in the distant past and with a very different backdrop, the stock traded above £3.

(And, no, I'm not from Trinidad.)

You confuse sensibility with 'bashing down'. I guess if your worldview is set by rampers it might seem like bashing down. Sensibility has been proven right. Again and again and again. Hype and hysteria have been punished again and again and again. Recent posts have illustrated this all too well. (And you seem to forget my posts in '20 and '21, in particular, when the stock was deeply cheap and hadn't valued the then large CRP balance. It's a shame that balance is now near zero except for the cost recovery in the arrears.) As a chartered accountant and auditor you surely can value sensible forward expectations/modelling, adjusting those according to actual events and considered changes in outlook, as a basis for thinking about value as opposed to senseless opinion without basis.

Go on. Prove me wrong. Prove me exceptionally wrong. I'd be so happy if this rocketed through £2 next week. And through £3 by a month later. But that's not at all my expectation. And if it did I'd expect there'd be far bigger sellers than me.

(In my portfolio there are just two UK stocks that I manage myself. There isn't that much else I've found interesting and worth a self-managed and concentrated position. Open to ideas... Not at all strange then that I post here and more recently in the Vanquis thread. And as you know yourself, Vanquis has been much less interesting, although still rewarding for me, so far.)

Last year?

We are talking about where we were immediately prior to the pipeline being shut. That’s almost two years ago. Things were rocking in January and February ‘23. Yeah oil prices had come back to more sensible levels and yes we had a backlog of payments. But we had contract certainty, were producing more oil and were drilling for growth. I’m not one for looking backwards and making simplistic comparisons. I look forward, map out expected outcomes and discount those back to today. But if you are going to look backwards (for example to where we were immediately prior to the pipeline closure) at least be honest with yourself as to what the situation was back then.

If exports restart (I am already assuming they restart in April) and we get the receivables paid (I’m assuming they’re recovered over the next two years) and we get regular payments each month according to our current contract terms (already assumed in my modelling) and we begin drilling for growth (for now I only assume growth back to 48k) then I could see uncertainty falling enough to reduce my discount rate (currently 20) to reflect the lower uncertainty.. I’ve said this often before. But there’s a lot of wood to chop before then.

And, yes, I was using a lower discount rate in early March ‘23 when I called the sell on the KBT news.

Good luck!

Pilgrim, I wish you luck with that distorted memory. And if you think people were speculating regarding pipeline closure, even in March '23, I'm afraid you're delusional. For those with poor memories here's the fact pattern.

The stock spiked to a high of 321p on the 9th of June '22. Brent was $123 a barrel. My model was flashing red and I sold GKP of the first time ever that day (average price on oder was 320.2p). Unfortunately I didn't sell enough. The euphoria dissipated quickly and by the end of the month GKP was down 20% to 260p. June '22 production was 46k bopd.

In July '22, the company paid out 29p of dividends. These weren't generated by recurring cash flow, but rather mostly from the one-off recovery of historical costs. On the 14th of July (the second ex div date) the stock closed at 200p. Brent had fallen to $99.

In the second half of July and August the stock rallied somewhat only to turn down again. A further dividend announcement of 10.7p per share didn't help much. As it went ex div the stock was at 199.60p.

It basically flatlined in broad range of c190 to c220p until early March '23. We got a further dividend in of 9.577p per share (ex dividend date 16 Feb '23) which helped the stock towards the high of its trading range on a cum div basis before going ex. (Thankfully the earthquake didn't affect operations for long.)

By early March '23 Brent had fallen further to around $85 (versus its current level of c$76).

By the end of February the mood was good. Yes, Brent had 'normalised' but we were drilling for growth, production was on the rise and payments were regular albeit delayed. In very early March, however, we began hearing about the move to KBT pricing. When I added the additional discount into my model it began flashing red again. For only the second time. Genel announced first and, on the back of that news, on the 6th of March I sold for the second time. (207.32p was the average of the order.) GKP announced on the 9th. The stock fell to a low of 160.83p on the 20th before recovering to close at 173.40 on the 24th largely as the production backdrop was looking very good - we had just hit 55k for the very first time. Brent had fallen to $75.

Then the news regarding the pipeline closure broke out of the blue...

The stock bottomed in the week of the 6th of August and we've been in the same trading technical pattern since - a steady upward trend with peaks in mid November '23, mid June '24 and now (?). The company has largely distributed all the cash it generated in 2024.

Good luck!

Yep. 173.40 close on the 24th of March 2023, the last trading day prior to the shutdown. And the company had recently hit 55,000 bopd production (versus the current outlook of 40-45k bopd!). The stock had already taken a leg down due to the introduction of the KBT discount.

Like I said, it’s all relative. I don’t think you’re “high” at least until you’re in double figures.

As for this board, and you, it’s just sport. That plus a sense of morality. The irony of so many shareholders of old, who’ve PROVEN themselves utterly wrong in this stock, endeavouring to lecture and sway the new that their totally unrealistic, failed expectations may yet come true is next level.

Beware those who have demonstrably poor performance. Especially when they struggle with mathematics and simple logical analysis. And especially when their response to someone who can do such is simply to disparage and resort to attempts to discredit the legitimacy of their interest in GKP.

God forbid someone “have an agenda” of common sense and realistic expectations.

No I didn’t. You surmised I was.

And you still haven’t answered my question. How much net worth to HNWI? £5m? £10m? £20m? £100m?

Ain’t wireless internet great?

Define HNWI? I don’t think I am but perhaps in your world view I am. It’s all relative.

I wish you luck - despite your clearly bitter and unpleasant character. Get some help. It can make the world of difference.

I just didn’t want to interrupt the misery fest. Play the field before you not the one based on hysterical hopes and dreams.

Untested => unvested (ugh autocorrect of fat fingers)

You need to count all his vested options and then, separately, consider all the untested but awarded ones. He's well long the stock.

He was awarded the stock as part of a (retention) compensation agreement agreed a year ago. The EBT made the purchase for him. You should read the RNS properly.

Nah Mulder. It's already trading above my average entry cost and almost certainly being pitched as an acquisition candidate. Position is small though. Only 153k shares. As always DYOR. (BNOR was another cracker. 4.7x there.)

But let's not clutter the GKP board with discussion of VANQ...

"Putup’s less than optimistic calculations might be based upon technical evidence, and that offers balance to the view of GKP bulls like me."

LOL. Expecting a circa 20% return for the year (including dividends) is hardly "less than optimistic". If anyone is happy with a Lowe return they're welcome to bid the stock up today. For me, the stock isn't particularly cheap, and hence a Buy, until it's below 140p (10% or more below my current fair value view).

"However, the notion that Trump doesn’t give “a flying ****” about Iraq / Kurdistan is not correct"

Oh he 'cares' about Iran. He is forced to. But if you think the Trump administration sits there fretting about Kurdistan oil production you're delusional.

(OMG see has an 'agenda' of commonsense and realistic expectations.)

Trump couldn't give a flying **** about Kurdistan/Iraq. Don't be misled by rhetoric intended for a domestic audience.

The issue is sovereignty. Hard one to solve. As any downtrodden Scot will tell you.

haha ****eye. you're such a muppet. god forbid anyone "have an agenda" of commonsense and realism rather than wishful 'thinking'.