Member Info for PUTUP

nah. the pre 16ers gorged on hype and self-greed. sure actors played to the crowd. but greed played a huge role. hype was lapped up. you’d think some lessons would have been learnt…

and , yes, **** (tail risks) can still happen even when you’re careful. onward.

"Sadly these boards serve mainly as a conduit for the moneyed to acquire more money from retail by peddling jam tomorrow bs in a golden age of fraud."

Nah. In contrast it demonstrates the foolishness of retail and their failure to invest based on sensible analysis rather than hype and their associated steadfast inability to consider opposing risks in a balanced way. Anyone looking to take advantage of this doesn't need to look in here to affirm their view.

And yours wibble? At lest his posts are thoughtful and he's considering the right issues. Ignore them at your peril.

Done yet?

No real surprises. Continued cleaning of balance sheet. Very good progress on cost efficiency gains.

BB, that's certainly a possible 'downside' view. Not my base case though. It would be a disastrous outcome vis-a-vis the current stock price.

"will be the $16/bbl still be applied to those volumes directed to local refineries?"

I believe "yes". It's a placeholder for costs - adjusted up or down when actual costs have been audited. And cost incurrence is governed by agreed budgets and field development plans. So the $16 is a nominal, temporary, figure only. Also, costs are costs - the debit side of the income statement - quite separate from revenues/credits. Currently costs aren't close to $16 - more like a bit below $10 given current restrained capex this year.

Starsalign, nah not now. People can do their own calculations. They really aren't hard to do, although the cannon fodder in my filter bin will no doubt struggle.

Good luck all.

"Oil revenue will significantly rise upon the expected deal"

Some PSC maths.

Assume:

46k production for each of March and April.

March production is local sales at $27 a barrel.

April is export at $70 Brent and the previous $32.20 discount that applied prior to pipeline closure.

Pre any arrears recovery (including the cost oil in the arrears).

March net revenues to GKP = $11.9 million

April net revenues to GKP = $12.5 million

(admittedly April is 1 day shorter than March...)

🤣🤣🤣

Just imagine how long it is going to take to agree field development plans and associated budgets with each of the operators... The IOCs can't invest (on their behalf) until all that is done.

I will assume that's a question for me.

I bought my core position between May '20 and Aug '21, reinvesting dividends along the way. After that I banked dividends to manage overall exposure. (Back then the play was monetisation of the unrecognised/undervalued by investors Cost Recovery Pool. Your didn't need growth. Even a decline in production would be ok. All that was needed was for the oil price to allow recovery of this previously spent, and written off, capital. That was the huge attraction for those that restructured the company. That trade is now over except for the recovery of the receivables which contain the very last of that cost recovery.)

My first sale was at 320.2p on 9 June '22 and, regrettably, small. Then later at 207.32p on 6 Mar '23 when the KBT discount was revealed by Genel.

The sales at 141p and 145p in May '24 were profit taking on a rare trade I allowed myself with that stock purchased a year earlier at 132. It was small - only 25k in total - and, while I made money, frankly the return for the holding period was very disappointing. Plus I was already running enough risk. I regretted the add. So those sales brought me back to my original holding (less the sales at 320 and 207). You can look at it as taking my share of the distribution or as straight up profit taking on the earlier (regretted) buy.

My last sale was recently 189p (10% of position). I've banked all the dividends since Aug '21.

So only regret so far is not selling everything in June '22 as there were ample opportunities to reset the entire position since. (Also, perhaps I should have hit the opportunity even harder in 2020.) But hindsight can be a wonderfully brutal thing.

Loving the green lines popping up. 🤣. I expect cash as of end Feb to be $112 and so a couple of million more by the 20th of this month with a little of the receivables collected. So, make it $70 million I would prefer returned to shareholders! Way too much shareholder capital is deployed in unproductive assets. They won't be bold enough though... Pity.

(Or they can buy stock at market in which I'd participate as a seller. That would be better still.)

Yup. I still expect $30 million although I'd prefer them to pay $50 million and further reduce capital deployed.

(And a couple of weeks after that expect the next grant of nil-cost stock options for management. Thank all those that voted in favour of the stock option plan!)

And is before the CBC paid by GKP

No. If paid according to the current PSC, with the arrears treated separately, the total Contractor 'revenue' per barrel for GKP/MOL will be $12-13 per barrel once exports restart (assuming $67.50-70 Brent and the historical discount of $32). This includes the 'profit' oil component and so not just 'costs'.

" international oil companies currently profit more from the unofficial production and sale of the oil than they would if pipeline exports resumed"

This is not the case

The weight of a single, large buyer was removed

"Uncle Sam knows this and is the reason behind the insistence of pipeline crude resumption."

Yup. It's all about Iran.

Thanks. I will have a look.

Just to be clearer, I have not seen any evidence that the KRG will be allowed to export oil alone regardless of any pipeline contract. So I'm really interested if there is any supporting evidence for this view. Only Itsa has been banging this drum and again without supporting evidence. Hence I believe the only path forward is a tripartite agreement between the KRG, ICG and the IOCs (which I expect but also believe is largely priced in).

But what makes you think the KRG "can go it it's own way and use the pipeline without agreement" (sic)?