Member Info for PUTUP

Target price - We increase our target price to 140p (from 120p) reflecting a sustainable ROTE of 15% and COE of 16% applied to FY27e tangible book of 179p, using the ROTE/COE formula discounted to 12mths forward.

We have updated forecasts to reflect divisional restatements ahead of capital optimization presentation (17/10) and Q3 trading statement (5/11). Overall changes are modest, including incorporation of At1 issuance; a small upgrade to adjusted EPS27e; and a small increase in expected motor finance redress provision in H225.

Recommendation - We continue to be positive on VANQ. The shares have rallied strongly this year. However, shares are still not an expensive trading on KBWe PE27e 5.2x or PTBV25e 0.9x. Reiterate Outperform, TP140p (from 120p)

Yes. 90 day interim period subject to review by independent consultant. Then new agreements executed. No more independent consultant. SOMO appointed sales agent sells oil, proceeds go into escrow, invoice sent, criteria in invoices met => proceeds released. SOMO in charge of transport and marketing. KRG remains in control of regional industry and its development. That's the plan anyway.

Just answer my question. Where in the presentation?

FWIW, though, if I plug YOUR $65 and 50k assumptions (plus the other requisite assumptions) into the PSC formula you get more like $56 million plus whatever comes in from the one-off recovery of arrears.

"I note that you did not bid goodbye even when the price flirted with £3 and more about 3 years back - give or take"

Yeah I tried to sell the lot back then but didn't get it away. Sold some as high as 320p but unfortunately not enough. Oil was over $100 a barrel. Wild times. It was certainly the time to sell and reinvest elsewhere.

" in heart of your hearts you expect somewhere between £3.50 to at least £5."

Nah. Right now I'd sell the lot between 225p and 250p (probably lower). I sold over half my position between 200p and just over 225p. I have an unexecuted sell order at 225p good 'til cancelled and would sell more above.

Good luck!

"Why.... Published Again ?"

Always makes sense to have an up to date corporate presentation that is published and available for distribution/as a basis for conversations. There's been enough change over the last couple of weeks to warrant an update.

"Clear hint of FCF OF $100M /YEAR."

Titan, where on earth did you conjure this bit from? Or did you hope people reading your comment wouldn't bother to read the presentation?

(You do realise the current dividend yield, even with the 12% retracement is less than 10% don't you?)

I have access to some. One assumes $75 oil which is a bold assumption IMO. Check them out as best you can.

Yes, although you should read the actual research and note the assumptions.

Euphoria & giddiness --> More settled emotions.

Watch the oil price and eyes on 2027 production

"Oslo Listing !" Not any time soon IMO.

Hopefully the next three months go smoothly and we come out of the consultant review process without a bust up. A bottom for the stock in the 190s would let us all off very lightly...

Likely it's a case of 'let's not tell them/make it obvious, since the CRP balance is technically truly higher as those costs haven't yet been recovered, and hope they don't notice'... No avenue for profit oil recovery this way. If the costs are recovered via another tbd plan (which includes profit oil recovery) then the CRP balance will be 'adjusted' (perhaps only as and when they are recovered).

"I'm assuming the $30 realised price doesn't refer to our actual invoices but the temp fixed $14pb"

Correct. Not 'realised sale price of oil' but simply an expression (poorly worded) of the $14. 14*0.8/0.358 = .... (subtract a bit for CBC)

It's clear, however, that management are guiding analysts to $25 as a base case. Still need to assess the impact of shifting $2 for transportation to coming out of the $16 versus being part of the discount...

Ha. Well I have been saying for over a year and a half now one of management's key tasks is to try to reduce the discount. However, with the announcement regarding the provisional period implying a discount of $36 or more I'm taking a wait and see approach.

And whether you are bullish, neutral or bearish from here, it doesn't change the FACT that Profit Oil per barrel is about $4 at today's realised prices and R Factor.

"Things have not been this rosy for GKP"

GKP has been absolutely fantastic over the last 5 years!!!! Don't be so down and out!! Personally I'm up 4x and surely with your wisdom you've done even better! Congratulations!!!

[Oh - it's only been challenging for those that bought on euphoria and didn't (couldn't?) understand how the company is remunerated. Hmmm...]

Jesus Jxp, anyone looking at pg 18 of the company's presentation can figure this out. Management provided this page for a reason. You can't possibly be that stupid unless you're gambling your disability benefit.

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/03/GKP-FY-24-results-presentation-vfff.pdf

There's nothing "new" about this

Facts > Feelings

Providing factual information isn't talking down the stock. 🧐 But there are some here who would prefer you not understand facts. My point to OilViking1 is that the stock is at these levels not because GKP is earning 14-21 USD a barrel in profit but shouldn't be. It's here even though it is rather obvious it's earning 4 per barrel (less 20% CBC and corporate overhead). If you don't understand that you don't understand how GKP is remunerated.

OilViking1, I hope you realise that profit oil per barrel for Shaikan under exports is already circa $4 a barrel. From GKP's shared of that they have to pay CBC and all non-recoverable expenses.

Pincer is mixing his currencies up (and doesn't know how long 12 months is)

But even a 7% dividend yield (a more accurate figure) is high. No surprise there. If only it were coming from profits.

But good luck!

Ha sorry about the autocorrect Zedy