Member Info for PUTUP

“So why is share price utter sheeait?”

Seems about where it ought to be for me. Not surprising. In line with my model. 🤷🏾

They’ve been paid. Next one due in January.

"Strange share price movement again"

No one should be surprised. Accumulate on weakness, more of which is likely to come. (My model's FV end '25 is currently 170p. Target, on cum div basis, circa 195-200p for end '26.)

The prior practice of announcing each payment receipt was rather unusual and something the company was, I believe, keen to move away from and hence the change in practice. IMHO we should all push back on this. Particularly in such uncertain times, timely information regarding volumes and prices is helpful. (Of course the payment received was only a provisional one and there's still a lot being negotiated.) I'm sure more will be disclosed as the company updates its corporate presentations and with the FY results but I too would prefer that monthly receipt update were maintained, at least until everything is operating flawlessly.

Especially given the comment in the recent operational update which said "and we are pleased to have recently received our first payment."

I'm pretty sure they have received the first provisional payment for end-Sep/October production already. The next one, for November production, would come in January.

i just filter the muppets. ****eye, straycat, jenslehman etc. not only are they idiots, but obnoxious ones at that. they have been and always will be cannon fodder.

yes, the purpose of this chat board is to exchange investment views, both positive and negative; views as to how things might and might not unfold in the future and the risks attached thereto.

let them be run over at which point they will blame some dark and sinister third party rather than their own stupidity.

"Why all the conjecture? We’ll know when we know. Buy, sell or hold. Up to the individual."

Really? Because that is what investing is all about: peering into the future and trying to ascertain how well, or poorly, a company will do in comparison to what is already impounded in the stock price; endeavouring to discern whether the future is brighter or darker than expected. It's "up to the individual" based on each individual's assessment of how things will unfold.

Nope. Nor is it intended to. I think you completely misunderstand the purpose of the interim period arrangement BB. I suggest, again, you reach out to management and get a better understanding.

Their job is to check that the invoices are consistent with contract terms. Not make up new ones.

And yet Brent just had its lowest weekly close since the week beginning 1st of February --- 2021

"would speed up Wood Mackenzie analysis/report"

IMO the most interesting aspect of the international consultant review will be the costs-in-arrears rubber meeting the road. GKP will no doubt have submitted an invoice based on the gross CRP, unadjusted for the costs in the arrears. After all, they'll argue, these costs have not been recovered. So their so-called 'full entitlement' (a misleading term if ever there was one). If Wood McKenzie have done any homework whatsoever they will know that such an invoice (because it re-bills costs-in-arrears) would mean SOMO would be paying back some of the KRG's arrears - something SOMO is quite likely to object to. So the whole arrears discussion comes to a head very quickly. I estimate GKP has already recovered a bit under $12 million of the arrears already by re-billing costs. I value the remaining balance at 39p per share and, of course, recovery is critical to investment for growth. Working through these issues and settling on a repayment mechanism with the KRG in the coming couple of months is incredibly important to the stock. We wait with bated breath.

"various expenses and outgoings in running a Navy"

A sunk cost (excuse the pun). He'd argue "why not put them to work covering some of their expenses?" After all, he just stole 2 million barrels of heavy crude. Luckily he's not going after Colombia and further exacerbating the cost of living crisis by pushing up the cost of cocaine...

Nah. He's just stealing oil for free now.

Dunno. Sales would have to be even lower than 40k bpod to drag my cash estimation down by $2m. At the end of the day I don't think it matters (rounding error) and we will find out soon enough. Could just be capex timing etc. $2m is less than 1p per FD share.

1. Water handling equipment is leased

2. They already have enough equipment for first well and almost enough equipment for first 3 wells. However, they have to order a rig.

3. Real growth, ie drilling, is dependent on recovery of the arrears

4. Oslo has nothing to do with debt, but rather the chance to attract new equity demand. Anyone with the slightest understanding of capital markets understands what's needed for it to happen and why it hasn't happened yet...

"I'm looking more at 40k for Oct"

And how does that align with previous and latest statements regarding YTD production?

Below are my figures - comprising actuals where there has been disclosure. They imply 41.37k to end of November; 41.593k for the year. I will refine with further disclosure.

Jan 47,900

Feb 45,200

Mar 46,400

Apr 47,200

May 46,000

Jun 31,800

Jul 21,200

Aug 40,000

Sep 43,000

Oct 43,000

Nov 43,750

Dec 44,000

But anyways, being only $2m off in cash estimation is neither here nor there. A plan always beats no plan and so far this plan has worked very well.

Maybe it's how you conduct yourself. Personally, I have found Aaron responsive and helpful. Try again and let us know how it goes.

*anyone HERE

BroadfordBay, good questions. Why don't you send a note to IR and let us know now what they say? I doubt anyone there has a clue so asking them is pointless. I SUSPECT the issue is water and hence the need for the water handling equipment - and why the work-over of PF2 was deferred to align better with water handling equipment installation. But let us know. Thanks.