Member Info for Jxp101

I think the market is currently pricing this like a broken growth stock, which is understandable given underlying revenue growth was only 1% and EBITDA margin dropped to 34%. But on valuation, it’s starting to look pretty interesting.

Using adjusted EPS of 7.3p:

At 12x earnings = c.88p fair value

At 16x earnings = c.117p fair value

At 20x earnings = c.146p fair value

So even on a fairly normalised 16x rating, I get around 115–120p. If the market starts believing the recovery story again, 140p+ isn’t mad.

On EV/EBITDA, market cap is roughly £544m and net debt is about £114m, so EV is around £659m. Against £110m adjusted EBITDA, that’s only about 6x EBITDA. For a subscription-led data/intelligence business, that doesn’t exactly scream expensive.

If you apply:

8x EBITDA = c.110p equity value

9x EBITDA = c.126p

10x EBITDA = c.142p

Then there’s the margin recovery angle. Management is aiming to get EBITDA margins back towards 40%. On FY25 revenue of £322m, that would imply roughly £129m EBITDA. Put even an 8–9x multiple on that and you’re looking at roughly 130–150p.

So my fair value range is:

Conservative: 90p

Base case: 115–125p

Recovery case: 140–150p

The £5m buyback isn’t huge, but it does show management thinks the shares are cheap enough to keep taking stock out. The bigger issue is execution. They need to prove organic growth is coming back and margins are recovering.

My take: undervalued on fundamentals, but not yet fully trusted by the market. At 78p, I’d say fair value is around 120p, with upside to 140p+ if the turnaround actually lands. The chart still looks grim though, so this is more recovery/value setup than clean momentum buy.

Bit of a mad one today. Share price has been absolutely walloped, down about 25% to around 720p.

I don’t think FY26 itself was the disaster. Revenue was up 5.6% to £1.94bn, adjusted PBT up 4.7% to £132m, adjusted EPS up 3% to 122.8p. Customers were up strongly too — total customers up 23% to 1.43m, organic customers up 10%. Net debt/EBITDA still only 0.9x, so this isn’t some busted balance sheet horror show.

The issue is FY27 guidance. Management are basically saying: “We’re going to spend heavily now to grow the business over five years.” They’re putting about £55m a year into price investment, brand, Partners, digital/AI and the multiservice proposition.

That means FY27 adjusted PBT is expected to fall to £80m–£90m. That’s the bit the market hated. Fair enough really — a profit reset like that is never going to get a standing ovation.

The plan is to double multiservice customers from about 500k now to over 1m by FY31. By then they’re targeting around £175m adjusted PBT, ROCE over 30%, net debt/EBITDA around 1x and roughly £100m shareholder distributions.

So the whole question is: is FY27 just an investment dip, or is the business actually starting to wobble?

Buyback is interesting. They’re doing up to £40m of buybacks, equivalent to about 50p/share, plus 50p total dividend for FY26. So total FY26 return is 100p/share. At 720p, £40m could buy back roughly 5.5m shares, about 7% of the company. That’s pretty chunky.

Their buyback rule is also worth noting. They buy back when the shares are below 20x implied post-tax earnings. Using the FY27 midpoint of £85m PBT, that works out around £16/share. So at £7.20, the buyback is very clearly switched on. Doesn’t mean £16 is fair value tomorrow, but it does mean management sees the current price as cheap enough to buy stock back rather than pay a special dividend.

My rough FV:

Bear case: 550p–700p

If the market decides FY27 is not a one-off investment year and earnings are actually under pressure, then 7x–9x trough earnings gets you somewhere around here. Basically, this is the “management plan looks like wishful thinking” case.

Base case: 950p–1,200p

If FY27 is just a deliberate trough, customer growth stays decent, churn doesn’t get worse, and the buyback helps EPS, I think this is a more sensible medium-term range. Around 11x–14x trough earnings.

Bull case: 1,500p–1,800p+

Needs the FY31 plan to look believable: multiservice customers moving towards 1m, PBT path towards £175m, ROCE >30%, and buybacks reducing the share count. Possible, but not something I’d just blindly assume because management made a nice slide deck.

Stockopedia looks odd but explains the situation quite well: ValueRank 82, but MomentumRank only 21. So cheap-ish, but chart looks like it fell down the stairs, hit every step, then got mugged at the bottom.

Main positives:

* real business, not jam-tomorrow AIM rubbish

* essential household services

* recurring-style revenue

* strong c

Yes and rumours tout it as £1,800 takeover potential

Share Buybacks are in play now. Can only see this going up from here now. Plenty of cash better to use it on buy backs

I would say it's worth £5 at least. Given past bid and recent trading update.

Ii has now paid

Nothing paid through ii either

Be patient

210p is resistance. If it breaks after retest: UP UP WE GO!!

20p sell, here!

Iran! Good time to exit if oil goes up a bunch

I think he's heavily in profit currently. He loves WG.

When it flys, it flys!!

@JO I might actually send an email to the Chairman - Rick Grant to understand his views on protecting shareholder value with updates like that. Word for word I want to understand how it is protected or he has an incompetent muppet running the company. Like the one we have had at WG.

As I said your reputation is well known on this site!! 💯

Good luck keep on pis sing your money on penny stocks!

Jxp the reality is you are trader scum that has a reputation on lse of ramping the **** out of something in the morning then changing the entire narrative in the afternoon. you do realise people can read your history?? 🤣💯🤡

Everyone but you are a scum now! 🤡🤡🤡. I keep on saying it - you are uneducated

today 22:13

it’d be a legal minefield for anyone to jump in now. on a no vote, the door was wide open, clean slate, easy pivot. but with the yes locked and 75% secured, sidara have effectively built a legal fortress around this deal.

i totally underestimated how stacked the game was from day one, clause a, clause c, and the board choreography made it near impossible for resistance to build real momentum.

i was hoping for a proper institutional rebellion… but with only a 40% turnout, that resistance never materialised. sidara played the long game, and now that they’ve crossed the line, they’re not letting go. 💯

extremely unfortunate, however you can’t change the results!

your small brain **** process fundamentals. you live in hope - markets live in reality

Haha exactly 🤣 I can take a few punches from the main characters, that’s part of the show… 💯💯🤣 but when the NPCs start crawling out the woodwork they need challenged. 😆💯👍

Stupid uneducated two @t is back 🤡🤡🤡🤡

@YoungEngineer Agreed. There will be plenty of sellers at 27-28p, which is why the Wood share price will settle at circa 24-26p overall...more like 24-25p.

But this is okay. The markets will give you more than staying in the trade. How many wish they nevet invested in this roller coaster?

'Muppet. There will be no bidders.'

Agreed I don't see another bidder. The fall of PFC is enough to tell us that there are many more loss making contracts priced into Sidara's offer. Anyone else offering now will be punting. That B/S and P/L doesn't look good for Wood. These contracts are multi year contracts and if you don't price them in properly - this is what happens. Winning business is easy but pricing it in is much harder. At least thats what I have learnt from working in this sector. Well done to everyone that make money, those that didn't use this as a learning lesson. Too many pump stocks expecting recovery but debt is debt - the markets don't like debt if you are not making profit much like your bank when they give you a mortgage - a drop in salary = equates to more than risk.