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"We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears."
When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary.
Uh oh, Paul is back, and he's attempting to bluff by accusing others of having multiple accounts, and yes, my response to you, whether you are Paul, or not, is a lol.
But I'll humour you, the Iraq's can do whatever they like! It matters not what you or I think of their morality or you attempting to second guess, or lament, their behaviour, rationale or treatment towards their own people. None of that matters, troubles them, nor drives them.
Our investment, no matter how we might feel aggrieved, is irrelevant to them. Actually it's an irritation to them, and one that they would gladly crush.
And so yes, this is a possibility, certainly... "No restart of the pipeline, ever? Baghdad claiming the PSCs illegal?"
You can see the thread to figure out who I replied to.
Are you going to give me a reply to my question(s) or is your take still a "lol"?
'You have approx. 6000 posts between your three accounts complaining about issues in Iraq and their federal state Kurdistan. We understand, it will never be as clear-cut as you have it in your Anglo-Saxon country.'
Who are you talking to here?
You have approx. 6000 posts between your three accounts complaining about issues in Iraq and their federal state Kurdistan. We understand, it will never be as clear-cut as you have it in your Anglo-Saxon country.
Your complaints aside, what's your actual take here? No restart of the pipeline, ever? Baghdad claiming the PSCs illegal?
Were our missing payments last year used to pay the Kurdistan salaries via Erbil (as Baghdad had not forwarded the 12.7% due to Erbil), or were they cheekily ‘acquired’ by the usual suspects - as they knew that we and our PSCs could be used and abused at will )?
Solve this, and we have a clear case to take to court for the recovery of payments + interests due.
Instead of mocking my take - would you mind telling me how it will work out, then?
We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears.
If you take your stand, that Baghdad consider all these companies and their licenses illegal - why are they even negotiationing and offering concessions? Surely you can't u-turn after that, and take the position that the licenses were illegal to start with.
If this hits arbitration court in Paris (which Iraq obliged under post Iraq war restructuring) Baghdad will find themselves in a very weak position not acting on these "illegal licenses" for over a decade, and especially not after the closure of the pipeline.
Games are over, everybody knows it, exports will restart after Erdogan visits Baghdad late next month.
(When did Erdogan ever not get what he wants?)
'While I could to, some small degree, subscribe to the old conspiracy theory that it's all an act from Baghdad to once and for all terminate western IOCs and put Kurdistan in terminal poverty (and a new ISIS stronghold, because of it?)'
WTF! lol. Some of the people on this board haven't got a clue about the region in which they have placed their money. Not a clue!
While I could to, some small degree, subscribe to the old conspiracy theory that it's all an act from Baghdad to once and for all terminate western IOCs and put Kurdistan in terminal poverty (and a new ISIS stronghold, because of it?) - I believe we've gone too far now for Baghdad to pull of that rug-pull.
- Apikur has been successful in aligning both parties of the congress in the US, rooting for US companies and their investments being intact in Kurdistan. We have US politicians, from both sides of the aisle, now putting these assets as a precedent for further Iraq talks.
- We know that recent PSCs Iraq signed with international companies doesn't differ much in terms of economics from KRG-based PSCs. Link: https://www.rudaw.net/sorani/business/140220245
- When Iraq signed the latest PSCs with Total, the minister finished the press conference with saying "all projects are unique, and we can make amendments to the contracts". It's clear for everyone that Iraq want's to up it's total oil production.
- If the KRG is unable to export oil the funding still remains for Baghdad
- Currently the pipeline costs Baghdad $30m per month - or $360m per year - in fees to Turkey
- KRG politicians have stated publicly that they don't have any issues with the oil going through SOMO
- Iraq is currently missing $1B in annual revenues on-top of looking uninventable to international companies wanting to invest
Sure, I understand that Baghdad might have philosophical problems with Kurdistan - but are they really going to argue the IOCs illegal and risking international arbitration for years and years? For what? 5% higher royalties?
The games are ending now. Turkey is pushing, the US is pushing, KRG is pushing.
The IOCs via APIKUR wanted to be Queen, but that was never going to be possible.
The Castle's only got limited vision.
A Knight maybe...
We are now seeing more Iraq, Turkish co-operation, especially on the thorny issue of border control. Action groups like the PUK have killed a lot of Turkish soldiers and caused a lot of hostility.
Going to admit that I dont know a great deal about these action groups, however it might be the right time now to put down the gun and sue for peace. clearly the odds are stacked against them, and co-operation will most certainly bring lasting rewards and peace for all.
Its almost a if the Kurdistan gov, also recognises these facts now Iraq holds most of the cards. If we look close to home in Europe, we had quite a few similar groups which had great causes but eventually moved away from the bullet and the bomb, and now have a solid peace process. They can also achieve the same.
With solid progress being made and Erdogens visit not far off, Kurdistan has a golden opportunity here to work with fellow Iraqis and secure solid deals moving forwards. The IOC's are a pawn (well more like a castle), in this game.
Seems real progress on resumption of oil exports being made with Erdogan's visit only weeks away. We can expect news on agreements with IOCs before then.... importantly, they are discussing payment of debts owed to IOCs.
https://twitter.com/john78846295/status/1769447320947495259?s=19
Crude stays above $80 and highly likely to rise further.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/17/crude-oil-showing-signs-of-a-breakout-as-it-tops-80-what-traders-say-happens-next.html
Russian supply being reduced involutory by Ukraine, following new strategy to blow up Russian refiners , with 3 hit overnight. Clearly aimed at distillation towers so it makes good propaganda footage. A way of stopping a refinery from operating but not the best way, as it can be repaired in a couple of months.
This was all agreed months ago.
SOMO markets Iraq’s oil.
Tribals just biscuiting to get their rightfull private shares.
The ministry's spokesperson Asim Jihad told Shafaq News Agency that "technical committees are working between Baghdad and Erbil to finalize a transparent agreement between the two parties to end the disputes regarding the export of oil from KRI after its cessation."
Jihad added that these committees "discuss export mechanisms and related matters, including financial entitlements resulting from oil sales, as well as the rights of oil companies that have entered into partnership contracts with the Regional Government (KRG). By resolving these issues and reaching a comprehensive agreement, oil exports will resume."
Discuss export mechanisms and related matters, including financial entitlements resulting from oil sales, as well as the rights of oil companies that have entered into partnership contracts with the Regional Government (KRG). By resolving these issues and reaching a comprehensive agreement, oil exports will resume."
Https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-reveals-developments-in-resuming-oil-export-via-Turkey
That $82m-$86m is better sat on the Balance Sheet right now.
Not given away as capital returns, whether it's in the form of dividends or a $25m buyback sop to shareholders for their suffering.
That money will be needed (and a lot more) to restart Capex once this issue is resolved and the self-funding plan is re-ignited, as the Board still believes.
Because the basic field development model demands up front investment before cost recovery. Whatever form it may take when renegotiated.
There's plenty of time for shareholder appreciation via capital returns later, once some kind of normal service is resumed.
But not now.
Point was it's better to preserve the cash given the ongoing lies and shenanigans, and no certainty over local sales.
Been saying for some time that personal greed was behind the closure.
Like taking candy from their own population (and us naive little oilers).
Looks to me Barzani is doing just fine stitching up the IOCs in Kurdistan!!
He probably likes the pipeline closed while making $40 a barrel of everyone.
Eventually this has to stop because his country is about to implode on itself very soon.
Does he care probably not and we all thought things were improving 🤔.
To much thieving and lies by all.
I think you’ve hit that nail on the head … 165-195 incoming this year !!
Next week, fireworks!
Great news there ‘ponzi :)…… 190s sounds very OK to me !