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@theoryman
If I know correctly, KRG revieved around $ 400 millions per month in the last 3 month. On the top of that - with US involvement - Bagdad agreed to give $ 1.5-1.6 billion to fully cover the saleries. This will be distrubuted in 3 portion and the federal governmnent backs the loan agreements.
According to the budget law, the KRG should get around 1 billion just for oil revenues (and they should have other 3-4 million (?) for other revenues).
Regarding the production around Kirkuk, idk whether they can effectively redirect that but if not then you can calculate that 80k bpd * 60 (USD/barrel because of quality discount) * 30 (days per month) * 5 (months)=$ 720 million. But again idk wheter they can redirect it or not. But for sure Bagdad paid for the KRG so far $ 1.2 billion and granted 1.5 billion in loans while recieved 3 times 80k bpd into refineries (worth around 4-500 million USD). So in financial terms if it continues, it is sure that it wont be financially sane for Bagdad because as local sales rump up, they wil be FORCED to pay more than 400 millions/month anyway. The higher the official Kurd production, the more they will have to pay, because - correct me if I am wrong - but the Budget Law requires the them (KRI) to export or if not possibly sell the oil in domestic markets, at least 500k bpd. I think they KRI should be easily over 300k bpd for now.
theoryman. fine in theory but when it comes to common sense and logic middle eastern politicians become mired in a sea of self interest, religious lunacy and ****** / tribal agendas. that said at the end of the day money rules the world and it does seem that a pragmatic face saving solution is close. in the meantime, and as most sensible people on this forum seem to believe, gkp can survive and even return to small profits.
patience still required
Oil prices going higher,, and pipeline open Soon,,£250+ juicy Divideds,, it's no brainer,,,
@Anfil, what sort of figure would the FGI have been sending to the KRG as cash per month in real time, if the exports were as normal and how does it compare to the value of the delayed random payments and these loans (humanitarian?) they have just graciously agreed with the pipeline being closed?
I ran the figures two months ago and the gains and losses were self cancelling to within a reasonable degree of certainty. I cannot rerun it with the latest figures because I am away from my base long term, mixture of research and holiday.
Maybe time to ask what would they give to the Turks if they were desperate and why haven’t they done it?
Drop the second arbitration case?
Agree that the Kurds benefitted from the illegal export, set up a system where the KRG “pays” the fine to Iraq to satisfy the arbitration ruling and it gets added to all their other international debts? (Recovered through withholding % of budget payment over as long as possible.)
If that combination doesn’t shift the Turks then what will?
Absolutely.
Ah don't recall that. I didn't filter you so maybe wires were crossed. Onwards.
As we go into October, with the expected opening of the pipe line towards the year end, with local sales underpinning current Sp there is far more upside to come than any down side,
Cheap at £1 , next year £2-£3 imo plus Divi returning
More than double buys
and then buys keep on coming in big and strong
my guess something has leaked and news is imminent
Pipeline has to open - the ruling families in Erbil, Ankara, Baghdad must have each lost multi-millions in their various creaming scams to defraud their voters and we mugs - who make it too easy for them.
Hi FH1,
Spain, August 2019.
I was in heaven, burning my ugly fat body under the searing sun when you tried to get the bb to filter me.
Funny in retrospect, but mightily irritating at the time!! Maybe it was the sun.
Anyway, it looks like nowadays we see, broadly, the same outlook on some issues.
Good stuff.
SC
Wise words. GKP will come good. And yes it was a clear strategy to put the company up for sale. Politics has got in the way. But as you say the fundamentals remain.
I bought my first tranche of GKP shares in early 2018. And it was a big buy. I bought in because, apart from that ridiculous unsecured $100m loan facility, the Company was debt free and a cash machine.
And that is what it continues to be, even at local prices of $30pb.
I also bought into the idea that this was a Company priming itself for sale given that it had a plan for self-funding growth to 110k bopd over the subsequent five years (that was the plan at the time). And it had an embarrassing amount of cash at the bank ($219m as at 3.9.2018) which was completely ignored by the Board. By the end 2018 that un-used bank balance had grown to just under $300m!!
Point is, no-one should forget what a cash machine this is. Currently the share price is an irrelevance for true investors. What matters is that GKP can navigate its way through these troubled waters. Because this storm will pass.
Five years on and we are not sold…I was wrong about that. However, during that period I have increased my position in GKP significantly on several occasions and have no regrets.
And along the way I have received dividends that I couldn’t replicate elsewhere. Even at £1.00 my investment still looks like a smart one.
Because the fundamentals haven’t changed one iota. GKP has decades of oil to pump, it has c.a. $500m worth infrastructure of plant to pump it and even when it isn’t being paid by its only customer it has the resilience and invention to find an alternative route to market…albeit temporarily.
And the Balance Sheet is now secure…albeit temporarily.
As an aside, I started contributing to this bb much later in 2018 after witnessing the horror stories and vented feelings of aggrieved LTHs who were clearly licking their wounds after the necessary Reconstruction in early 2016. But the bb at that time was a cesspit of anger, bitterness, disillusion and mistrust. Quite intimidating.
That’s all changed now and I welcome that change. As I used to say whenever I walked into a newly acquired business; New Team New Dream.
Vive le difference.
It's a shame the markets are generally spooked today at least up until lunchtime.
we could have had successive consecutive strong days, even though we are holding our own atm.
I'm 75 now and still hoping I see some return and we have lost some nice people along the way such as Bob and Mikey
Anfil
I will take with a pinch of salt.
These idiots won't agree on them terms all bo!!ocks as per usual from these thieves.
Will take them 10 years to agree on the biscuits for any resolutions
Jimmee/Delta - greetings !
Still here lurking in the background hoping and praying for 'that' day !
Haven't conversed with Blade for quite a while now, but been 'speaking' to Batfarrell recently, who is still very upbeat about GKP. Not heard from Toatie for years, nor any of the others ( the long-timers ). The Callander meet was such a long time ago - but still fresh in the memory lol !
One Day Rodders !! ( he says with crossed fingers ).
Yes I agree easily 200p
Personally I think news has already leaked of the actual date and people / inside trading is already happing hence the price is stable above 100p
Just need the RNS now and fireworks everywhere
If that's passed surely it would finally make GKP the massive takeover target it has often promised to be. And for a much inflated price compared to today :)
Https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/iraq-new-law-allows-foreign-companies-to-own-oil-output
Iraq: New law allows foreign companies to own oil output
With this new law, Iraq seeks to leverage its oil wealth to attract foreign investment. If this got passed (effectively legitimizing PSC-s)... would be very great.
Pipeline actually open we are straight to 2 pound
So far everything is lining up for good news
pipeline open, GKP up 50%
Wow, there's some long forgotten names...Blade pops up every now and again, as does Toatie...to paraphrase he who shall not be named, wonder how many of us will be here by the end?
Take care mate, one day...
@theoryman
If you look back at the past, Bagdad never really cared for the quotas.
Also the increased production should allow Kurdistan to receive a larger share from the federal budget, in my opinion they should be around 300k bpd.
Also Bagdad does not really make money with local sales and even the 120k bpd for the refineris won't make difference. They need to pay monthly 4-700 million dollars for Kurds while having almost no revenue from the Region while they also loose export around 80k bpd from Kirkuk. Also the USD 150 billion federal budget is financed by USD 50 billion deficit... I think Bagdad has every financial (!) reason to reopen the pipeline.
I'm amazed that DNO share price hasn't dropped in the last 6 months even losing 70kbopd from kurdistan.
OK local sales are 50% but there is no collation between between the other IOCs.
Crazy world we live in .
Will gkp break the pound today??
I will probably say a 6% drop today but would like to be proved wrong ??
Looks like they are now producing above their OPEC+ quota.
The PoO went up circa $5 a barrel during the time the pipeline was closed for what was thought to be the short term but then remained closed...
So if the pipeline did reopen, how about the following side effects.
The PoO would drop AND Iraq would have to curtail production from its own fields as the Kurdistan production picked back up again - otherwise it would be way above its quota.
I still don’t think that Iraq is under any significant financial pressure to reopen the pipeline. It is doing OK as things are, maybe a marginal gainer/loser but it’s not in a death spiral :)
Article 2 hours ago
Paywall
https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/august-production-surges-as-krg-fields-partially-revive-46054/
August production surges as KRG fields partially revive
Fields in Kurdistan are raising production and selling into the local market, as output increases despite the ongoing northern pipeline closure. August production surges as KRG fields partially revive
Fields in Kurdistan are raising production and selling into the local market, as output increases despite the ongoing northern pipeline closure.