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Looks like today was
34,000 @ 141.30
91,000 @ 141.40
Let them keep buying or sending dividends out.
At some stage there will be no shares at the lower prices left. £10 million in buys sucks up a whole lot..
With added income they may well buy a lot more and keep the momentum up.
GKP are doing a great job of buying discreetly.
Big news and ££££ in the “pipeline”.
Still pumping and doing very well.
For me this is an easy buy and hold as I’ve just done.
At some stage a re-rateing upwards will take place.
Up 3.5%, something's brewing
143p to 137p in the last 30 mins . Not a great finish, still expecting a 10 to 15% drop.to happen in the next few weeks . You can almost feel it happening before it does??
Something is going to happen badly or extremely good soon. I'm the latter to be honest .
You jinxed it
Sorry missed typed I meant 1.40
That's refreshing back over 2 40 Nice....
Don't expect more volume. Let the Summer doldrums begin. Buyback buying will likely slow as liquidity dries up over the summer.
"Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day."
Looking to see some chunky buying before long as only a couple of days to our AGM and a fair amount of cash still held as purchasing power.
Volumes currently low which would indicate potential for decent increases if decent forced buys go through.
I believe this is why the board are re-instating full pay and suchlike, they also believe they are being side lined from exporting in order to punish the minority ethnic Kurds. Just that its being done in a convoluted way to make human rights prosecution difficult. Years ago they used poison gas, now they are trying unemployment and withholding payments.
The old hatred it seems is still there on religious grounds. I find it despicable, and one of the reasons I invest in GKP.
China: would imagine that the tribals in Erbil will be loosing sleep over the thought of Chinese Military muscle taking over their dripping roast oil playground.
Meanwhile cheap Putin oil is supplying China ( but that could evaporate overnight).
Our removal will not be at market prices unfortunately - as only one very powerful bidder….. all down to the size of the envelopes required to ellicit the necessary signatures from the tribal quills.
Why would Iraq fail to compromise, indeed has produced terms that they know cannot be accepted as totally unfair, and they actually don't want the IOC's to accept them anyway, its just a façade that they are doing something, indeed a photo opportunity for them.
To understand why they are happy with these staggering losses I believe we have to look at whats actually happening in Iraq and Baghdad and its most certainly not a pretty picture to Western eyes.
Indeed China is taking over, and when an oil company takes a licence they can bring in whatever security they wish, and in whatever numbers as well. China has done this, indeed some of the oil contracts are to Chinese military subsidiaries under an oil company guise. indeed China is viewing Iraq as its local fuel station, with deals struck now in return for X number of crude cargoes per month for years. Article below well worth a read
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Tightens-Its-Grip-On-Iraq-With-Major-Successes-in-Licensing-Rounds.html
Giving us IOC's cargoes from Turkey would be one way out of this impasse, however the Iranian and Chinese puppeteers might not agree as they want oil exported from Chinese controlled companies, and they now control the idiotic Iraqi ministers and officials whom they keep very sweet.
Complete junk
Simply Wall Street articles are mostly algorithm written.
Simply wall st article.
Insider Ownership: 10.7%
Earnings Growth Forecast: 47.6% p.a.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, despite a highly volatile share price, is trading at 61% below its estimated fair value and has initiated a substantial share buyback program, signaling confidence by management. The company's revenue is expected to grow by 25.1% annually, outpacing the UK market forecast of 3.7%. Additionally, earnings are projected to surge by 47.61% per year as it moves towards profitability within the next three years. However, recent financials show a significant drop in sales and a shift from profit to a net loss of US$11.5 million last year.
Sounds like a 'WallSt' kind of algorithm article, what's the source?
Insider Ownership: 10.7%
Earnings Growth Forecast: 47.6% p.a.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, despite a highly volatile share price, is trading at 61% below its estimated fair value and has initiated a substantial share buyback program, signaling confidence by management. The company's revenue is expected to grow by 25.1% annually, outpacing the UK market forecast of 3.7%. Additionally, earnings are projected to surge by 47.61% per year as it moves towards profitability within the next three years. However, recent financials show a significant drop in sales and a shift from profit to a net loss of US$11.5 million last year.
Last post: Victor384, 18 Jun 2024 07:32
Started: rogthegamer, 17 Jun 2024 15:00
Last post: Invstrat, 17 Jun 2024 17:25
BoD anticipating huge praise, awards and bonuses for their tireless work on our behalf - planning and executing the stellarly successfull buybacks campaign.
Roll on the AGM.
Expect the authorisation to continue buybacks to be fully supported. But don't expect them to be conducted at anything other than a measured pace (especially at these levels vs current fundamentals).
Given that on May the 13th our “weak” share price was 127 and the “board believes (it) trades at a SIGNIFICANT discount to the intrinsic value” is today’s price 132 or so reasonable? If not should all of the 10 million left unspent be added to all surplus cash above 98 million and re-authorised to be spent on more buybacks that might achieve the boards clearly stated purpose? We shall see.
Belgrano Why respond to a fool? No sane person would spend time and effort commenting on a share that they don’t have any financial interest in.( @ 132 I’d sell if I believed it will soon be 90p. )
Last post: PUTUP, 17 Jun 2024 16:30
That plus the 50k is very likely today's buyback
Nm
Started: Kheldar, 16 Jun 2024 22:27
Last post: Unwin, 17 Jun 2024 16:29
Yea Yea.
If TA actually worked we’d all be rich, wouldn’t we putup?
As for me, when the facts change, I change my mind.
After the latest meeting and comments from the oil minister it is clear to me this has a way to run and there will be opportunity costs leaving my capital here.
As for ramping/deramping if you base your investment decisions on what you read here you deserve to lose all your money.
I could well buy back in sooner than later but like most things in life it is a gamble. The exports WILL resume.
Good luck to all real long term holders.
Unfortunately, there's been no change in fundamentals since mid May... and, frankly, hope that negotiations would begin on a sensible footing have been dashed. "Patience still required." Lots and lots of patience...
Having reached 146p a share very recently, and now bounced off the support line which Putup correctly points out, I believe we will not see a great deal of resistance before returning to 146p.
This is because those that sold were either momentum traders or those that purchased hoping for a resolution to oil exports (does anyone actually still believe what the Iraqi oil minister says)?
most of those took an exit recently and the buybacks are continuing to mop up fairly high percentages of trades on low volume days like today.
Just my viewpoint on the current situation.
Bounced off support beautifully today. But has to break it to fill the gap which is a bit unnerving.
Unwin and Spacetomato, part of the "pump it til you dump it crew".
Beware their dialogue should they return.
Hi Itsaponzi,
Market volume does indicate much higher likeliness that we are at the btm of the recent retrace with barely 300 k trades today. Of course that may change yet but market signals are not pointing towards further drops and certainly not the wishful thinking ones you are advocating. Clearly you are currently out, so perhaps its time to retake a position.
all the best B.
Started: Pilegaard, 17 Jun 2024 08:35
Last post: Pilegaard, 17 Jun 2024 08:35
Sins it is going relative well in regards to production and local sales and a stable income and then looking back on historical share price before pipeline closure....
Where are the stock prices landing if export pipeline opened tomorrow?
is the buy back program related to an expectation that it will resume soon?
Last post: MR.Spacetomato, 17 Jun 2024 08:01
Unwin, you were not the only one. There are also two gaps on the charts to be filled and these "nuisance" will continue by the looks of it. So, patience is required. Where and when to buyback is the question fir the time being.
sold my holding at 146. i had a feeling this nonsense would continue. so after a year of being in i managed to get out with about as much profit as i would have made from a decent savings account. i just cannot be ****d with these clowns in baghdad. i might change my mind again if i see a decent drop and the situation moves but there has been zero progress.
gla lth
From a chartist point of view the stock still has to close the gap down at 122p
I don't expect PH to have bought more than 125k. I'd rather they bought stock lower given zero progress on fundamentals. Pre Friday's activity, the average for the buyback was 137p with a close on Friday of 130.7p. Queue naive bleeting about destruction of value...🤣
It’ll be interesting to see how many shares Peel purchased on Friday, with a weak price I’ll be disappointed if they only picked up 125k which will leave them short of the 10 million dollar target before Friday.
I’ve reduced to a hold because I’m taking out the prospect of the pipeline opening any time soon, can only hope for strong ‘local sales’ and an extended buyback with any surplus cash as the company did say that the share price doesn’t reflect the value. Plus a comment Re. Iraq oil minister’s latest lies.
So they have at least part closed the short below the threshold by buying the stock back.
Also says by closing they believe the price is more likely to rise from here otherwise they would have kept it open or even increased it.
Probably a very good time to get back in if currently out.
Last post: Victor384, 17 Jun 2024 07:26
Started: Victor384, 16 Jun 2024 12:52
Last post: Yo87, 16 Jun 2024 13:46
Definitely interesting times ahead. I've sold my holidngs on Wednesday, after no agreement been made. I'll still keep my eye on GKP because if circumstances change that could be worth way more.
https://chaipredict.com/resources/expiration-saudi-us-petrodollar-agreement
“Saudi Arabia will not renew the bilateral agreement with the United States, under which all trade in Arab oil was mandatory in dollars.”
Last post: MyLastQuid, 14 Jun 2024 21:23
Why's lse showing 2 RNS's
Started: truthsayer, 14 Jun 2024 16:47
Last post: truthsayer, 14 Jun 2024 16:47
Was a hell of a rise
Started: schlemiel, 14 Jun 2024 11:25
Last post: MR.Spacetomato, 14 Jun 2024 15:06
I don't like trading, but this time I had to. Those bloody crooked politicians are not the only ones to accumulate this time around. Getting a few extra shares soon.
:0)
Great find there Schle…. but from our experiences in the region - it will remain ‘a Pipe Dream’ …. Unless a substantial allowance to cover that indemic Achilles Heal in all projects which could benefit the general population of this region - the self destructive and tribal mentality engendered need for corruption.
No foreign investment or technology required to turn dreams into reality will be forthcoming until the region is ‘cleansed’ of the usual suspects.
13.06.24
https://shafaq.com/en/Report/Iraq-s-ambitious-Development-Road-Project-Concerns-and-challenges
excerpt -
'Furthermore, Yildirim said that the KRG portion of the project faces frequent criticism from PUK leader Bafel Talabani and his allies, who question the KRG's gains amid the Talabani-Barzani rivalry. "The route between Al Faw and Ovaköy passes through Mosul's administrative borders, mainly avoiding the KRI due to its mountainous terrain. However, the project benefits the KRG by providing a significant rationale for the agreement on oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil and reducing the cost of imported goods to the KRG. The project motivates the parties to resolve the dispute between Baghdad and Erbil regarding oil and gas exports."
Started: Cockeye, 13 Jun 2024 16:01
Last post: MR.Spacetomato, 14 Jun 2024 09:28
115p?
TSSZ, really? Despite believing that the recent negotiations between the Iraqis, Erbil, and the IOC were yet another farce by these corrupt officials and lacked substance, 110p seems like quite a drop. Based on the chart, I can even see it reaching 120p, but I feel 127p might be the bottom.
Given that these theatrics are unlikely to end soon, at least until the IOC gives up, we should expect some volatility. The buybacks might apply some pressure, but if the goal is to reduce the number of shares rather than just propping up the price until the AGM, I would wait to buy the stock until it reaches your predicted levels.
Exactly, classic moron
TSSZ: post in PFC....
Posts: 1,690
Price: 24.80
Strong Buy
RE: Upwards 12 Apr 2024 08:20
Booooooom going up buy quick otherwise you will be left behind
So much for the derampers 10p target FOOLS
Current price 14.40
Love a guy who speaks with total confidence while getting it totally wrong. There's someone on this Board you would get along with though, he's called Its-a-dumbo :)
Especially since ShaMaran was the most vulnerable with their pile of debt ?
Gotta wonder if this is some kind of "horse head in the bed" moment to pressure the IOCs...? "Nice local sales you have, would be a shame if they stopped abruptly... Well there's this pipeline, if you accept $6..."
Started: oilVIKING, 12 Jun 2024 18:00
Last post: belgrano, 13 Jun 2024 16:51
Sry for this off topic but oil related.
What I would like to see right now would be a drive by UK (with USA backing). To develop these crude oil reserves using the very best practices in the industry. This would change the balance of world power back in favour of the west and stop all reliance on Russian/ Arab oilfields.
Massive undertaking, huge investment and employment .
I'd invest right now if I knew the best places to do so.. well worth a read.
https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/wheres-the-oil-2024-06/#:~:text=The%20oil%20reserves%20in%20the,over%20the%20last%2050%20years.
Hi space Tomato,
I actually feel its a crying shame that Baghdad acts the way it does, by trying literally to drill down on costs to a minimum, they fully invite every shortcut in the book with oil field development which is almost certain to seriously lower recovery amounts than would have happened with the western majors. Some of the safety shortcuts are indeed shocking, with many cases of cheap valves etc being stalled with the non ideal spec for the sulphurous crudes encountered. Also workmanship quality, and reusing old gaskets and that kind of thing and ignoring small leakages everywhere due to these poor practices.
Its why the big companies cant really compete with many eastern ones ...they ignore H2S leaks and don't wear the best PPE.
If you pay peanuts you get monkeys..
Just that they have such a decent potential revenue stream, but the majority live in squalor, without even power 24/7, with poor hygiene, and little employment that's not "created for them".
While the few at the top enjoy massive wealth not from drawn salaries or earned, but from corruption.
The way they are going it wont improve, and they do have a fast closing window to improve things, before it really goes downhill with rising temps and reducing demand for oil. They just don't see it or don't really care.
Hi Belgrano,
I appreciate your perspective and detailed response. It's clear you've put a lot of thought into the situation. The complexities of dealing with Baghdad and the KRG are evident, and your stance on supporting the Kurds makes sense given the historical and ongoing challenges.
Holding shares into next year with the expectation of surpassing 150p through continued buybacks seems like a sound strategy, especially if the company can navigate these political intricacies effectively. It’s reassuring to see your confidence in the long-term prospects of GKP despite the current hurdles.
I too hold my shares in expectation of positive news. Iraq has definitely surpassed my investments in Siberia over a decade ago. But that pipeline will open eventually and I have the patience to wait.
Thanks for sharing your insights.
Best,
ST
Hi Space Tomato,
Not sold a single one, and if you look back at my posting history will see I've bee very critical of Iraq ministers for weeks.
I believe we can get to over 150p a share by just continuing the buybacks and have already stated happy to hold well into next year.
Its not just the IOC's, Baghdad tries to cheat and fiddle every western country, little wonder why decent companies leave Iraq leaving the dross and corrupted.
They are trying to ruin Erbil through green eyed jealousy and religious beliefs. many there still hold the same stigmatised viewpoints that they held years ago when trying to wipe them out. If we deal with the KRG and Erbil those idiots just brand us with the same iron. Some do hold positive viewpoints and want whats best for all Iraqis, but the simple fact is that the majority do not.
Keep with the Kurds, and until Baghdad really wants to be constructive stay away.
Thanks - i was just wondering what other peoples take are on it are .... All BOD's are the same in my opinion! But they are on the gravy train.... It would be nice if they could up revenue to continue the BB, and a 2 or 3 % yield to soften the blow! But don't worry - once i sell ..... the pipeline is more than likely to open that evening!!!!!!
Looks like they might have done more than 125k today. If they stepped back they'd likely buy them cheaper.
"This is slightly over the maximum amount announced of $10m."
🫣
To date the business has purchased just over 2.4m shares for a total consideration of £3.3m or $4.2m. If the rate of 125,000 per day continues until the AGM on 21st the number of shares purchased will increase by 875k, a total of just over 3.275m with an estimated value of $5.3m. This is slightly over the maximum amount announced of $10m.
Appears to be a missed opportunity to me.
Will be interesting to see what further activity if any follows the AGM.
Buybacks are to slow IMHO!! Should be double what they've buying each day .
Also what's happens when it stops as no deal for resumption will never be agreed..
Roll on 15 months and Fu(£ iraq.
Over 2m shares now removed from circulation since the buy backs started or 1% of the total starting amount and counting.
Started: truthsayer, 13 Jun 2024 14:10
Last post: truthsayer, 13 Jun 2024 14:10
Ha ha ha ha
Started: PlayingFTSE, 13 Jun 2024 13:40
Last post: PlayingFTSE, 13 Jun 2024 13:40
some are very knowledgeable here, so i would appreciate your wisdom!
i have 5k's worth of skin in the game - so a nice chunk of change to me,,,,,,down 25%ish
basically - how much profit do we make every month?
and basically how much oil did we produce via pipeline and how much are we pumping now?
to me, this is like a high stakes game of poker....who will fold first.....last man standing scenario. we had 4 players at the start of this **** show... bagdad, iocs, turks and krg. all holding different trump (picture) cards ie water.... turks seem to be out.... ?????? will bd ever fold.... got along without the oil revenue... so what will get them fold... i'm personally starting to think they want it all and will wait..... unless krg do a russia and find other routes to market.
Started: BroadfordBay, 12 Jun 2024 13:41
Last post: BroadfordBay, 13 Jun 2024 12:52
I appreciate the remarks about IEA, but you should really try to keep an open mind about crude prices.
Citigroup, for example, are currently saying that crude could (not will) drop to ca $60/bbl by the end of next year.
When such trends develop there are generally wild swings before a new floor or stable price emerges.
The IEA is a US-backed shill with a single aim of reducing the oil price to positively impact the Demoncrats chances (non existent) in November's US Presidential election
Think about it.
The IEA has just said that the world faces a staggering oversupply of oil by the end of the decade.
iea.org/news/slowing-demand
Started: johnnybegood80, 12 Jun 2024 16:57
Last post: johnnybegood80, 12 Jun 2024 16:57
1h ago
"ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Wednesday chaired a meeting of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Council of Ministers. Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani was also in attendance.
In the first item of the meeting, KRG Cabinet Secretary Amanj Raheem discussed the results of the recent visit of the KRG negotiating delegation and representatives of oil companies to Baghdad, in which their main topic of discussion was the issue of the resumption of oil exports by the Kurdistan Region, following their meeting with the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
Raheem discussed measures to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan Region and provided details on recent talks between the two governments and oil companies. The KRG needs to resume oil exports through SOMO as soon as possible. Additionally, the revenue generated from the sale of oil should be returned to the Iraqi Treasury to cover expenditures."
Started: schlemiel, 12 Jun 2024 08:45
Last post: PUTUP, 12 Jun 2024 16:21
Right now, at peak field capacity and a local sales price of $27 per barrel, MOL/GKP (the Contractor) are receiving a bit less than $13 a barrel (gross). But this is flattered by about $7m gross of excess cost recovery (direct cost recovery per month greater than direct costs incurred per month). Without this excess cost recovery, the Contractor would be yielding closer to $8 per barrel. Ignore the run down of excess cost recovery at your peril. (Yes, 8 is better than 6.)
We are getting more money on trucking contracts than what was published on offer so I cant see things changing unless they get anywhere near what's agreed in our PSC.
I've another week till I can do my own buyback (new money) and will continue to add whilst the pipeline farce continues.
Actually a shame that the meetings actually turned out to be a sham, a cosmetic photo opportunity, and the Baghdad ministers were vague as they hadn't anything to offer despite going on the record and saying that they were seriously working towards agreement. With the IOC spokesman saying there are still those in Baghdad that don't want agreement its clear that the meetings are a total façade. I have no hope at all of seeing the crude flowing this year, and by then the losses to Iraq will be $20 billion and they deserve it.
Should stop every cent of USA aid right now.
Jrlomax thanks for the link. Interesting. Seems that rather than the meeting being a failure that offered unacceptable terms, it was an attempt to pretend that they’re seeking a solution. More meetings are required but will they happen ? In the meantime we can expect local sales to continue at a profitable price so let’s wait until the 21st when all being well another trench of surplus cash might be added to a buyback that’s unlikely( at the current rate ) to be completed this time around.
Thanks Belgrano, but do you really believe that such a question can be answered amidst this uncertainty?
Last post: Swell2316, 12 Jun 2024 11:13
Is a Kurdish biased news outlet, they’ll blame everyone else and turn a blind eye to the rampant corruption amongst their own KRI politicians. I suggest the real truth lies somewhere between ICG intransigence and the KRI’s intractable corruption. I’ll take their editorial with a pinch of salt.