Predictions for Monday1 Mar 2026 19:13
Given the events over the weekend and the pace things are moving it’s quite difficult to predict how the market will react and in particular O&G companies with operations in the region, looking at the positives/negatives purely for GKP (appreciate this is very delicate subject with thousands of people’s lives being impacted too, so please acknowledge I am only looking at this purely from a GKP perspective).
Positives
- oil price will peak likely to sky rocket initially and the settle or remain high dependent on next steps, including strait of Hormuz status
- we export via Turkey therefore providing the ITP pipeline is protected and fields then it provides a good alternative to supply which increases importance of maintaining
- lots of positives and value levers incoming for GKP including Wood Mackenzie, Possible agreement to international prices, possible progress on back payment of 150m debt, reconciliation of difference between temporary agreement to agreed Wood Mackenzie findings (more arrears) and other such as duel listing impact to main market, possible M&A etc
Negatives
- possible increased operational risks and ability to continue to produce and export whilst current situation remains in place
- wider Middle East unrest and conflict
- bigger global implications and potential for tipping into a global recession
Overall, I think medium term we are fine regardless and may see a short term positive too depending on how the markets react. We also have to remember that the Middle East has been unstable for many years yet oil has always found a way to market so I will certainly not be making any short term decisions based on the recent events.
GLALTH
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