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So the news is out there and obviously alot of panic yesterday which is understandable but in my personal view overdone as it is in no parties interest to halt the exports for a long period of time.
The judgement in my view will accelerate an agreement of sorts whether that’s temporary or permanent who knows but I would imagine both parties are keen to get the oil flowing again soon.
One thing this has done is forced Kurdistan into a corner and exposes the elephant in the room which is they heavily rely on money transfers from Iraq so hopefully the realisation sets in and an oil and gas law is finally agreed to put long term stability in place.
With this stability GKP in my view becomes a much more investable proposition for the larger oil players, but one step at a time let’s get the oil flowing and payments going again.
GLA
Agree self serving journalist made a career of passing on 2nd hand information for his own benefit.
There was always going to be gamesmanship on route to getting an oil and gas law in place. The actions over the weekend will accelerate this and bring a meeting of minds which will ultimately benefit us.
A lot of people will want a cheap entry point into GKP and others ahead of any oil and gas law and here we go.
This could actually turn out well for us, there will inevitably be a panic by some, and others waiting to pick up cheap shares.
I feel we may be entering the last stages of on a route to stability, hold tight and here we go.
GLA
Ok so the ruling isn’t great but a deal will be done between KRG and Baghdad as it’s in everyone’s interest.
The reality is KRG has not been our friend, they have renegaded on agreements, forced us to pay to hand back licences to fields, not stuck to payment schedules, changed payment terms and changed from Brent ti Kurdish Blend.
We have a top quality CEO and a world class asset producing 55k bopd with significant resources and scope to increase upto 95k bopd.
The politics will play out, there will be lots is scaremongering and people will make money on people panic selling.
Hopefully an agreement can be made quickly to resume pipeline exports (that benefits everyone).
And at the same time once an agreement is reached then it should at least provide more certainty with greater Iraq influence instead of KRG self serving interest.
Stay strong all and remember the darkest days are usually before the sunshine shines brightly.
GLA
Dividend payment landed in HL accounts
https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/big-oil-mergers-exxon-chevron-shell-bp-51675103134
New update including $25m dividend
https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/GKP-Corporate-Presentation-Jan-23-v3.pdf
Finally we have received payment for August sales!!
Woohoo
The article is from November 2021!!! So I think that ship has sailed regarding GKP association with this leach thankfully.
I do however agree he deserves everything coming to him.
However the more pressing issue for GKP and all the other oil companies in Kurdistan I receiving payments. Sure once these recommence (one already been paid recently) then the share price and dividends will start to climb again.
GLALTH
Payments recommending for August oil, let’s hope ours arrive soon.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/shamaran-august-2022-payment-received-893492555.html
GLALTH
So Genel have released an operational update today and like us and all the other producers in Kurdistan haven’t been paid yet from what I can see no mention of lack of payments.
I find it strange that no one has been paid for oil supplied since July yet radio silence from all. Let’s hope this is a sign that they are not concerned and things are in hand.
GLALTH
First of all hopefully everyone enjoyed a nice Xmas with their families and loved ones.
Looking at the news regarding the possible passing of the oil and gas law should have set a rocket under the share price, surprise it hasn’t. In my view there have been so many false dawns that until tangible change is seen there will not be a significant rerate in the SP.
We are currently valued at under half a billion yet sitting on approx. 120m in cash with another 5ths worth of payments (approx 200m) therefore leaving a valuation of under 200m for assets (PSC, plant etc) which demonstrates how ridiculous the valuation is.
Previous estimates (even from the disaster that was JF) were valuing us at 2bn which would value us above £8. I am not saying we Will get to this however it illustrates the disconnect between the current SP. So thinking about this what could drive a rerate?
- formalisation of oil and gas law?
- approvals of FDP?
-‘move to $100+ oil price?
Personally being a long term holder and suffered like many on here I don’t see a major rerate unless there was M&A activity, although I would expect us to move towards £3.50 during 2023. I have now accepted that I will pick up dividends on a regular basis (whilst the current CEO) is in place and I will hopefully over time earn a good return on my investment. And if M&A was to come along we wouldn’t be picked up on the cheap.
GLA and hopefully 2023 is a healthy and prosperous one
Previous figures where around £2bn, not my numbers these were the numbers that even the ex CEO JF mentioned in an interview.
There has always been something that has held us back (whether it’s poor management, missed payments, oil price crash, Baghdad Erbil relations, law suit, lack of oil and gas law, lack of route to market etc etc).
The reality now compared to many years ago is that we are profitable, have a well established route to market, pay dividends yet we cannot get anywhere near previous valuations of £4bn plus. You have to wonder why?
My personal view is that it suits the MNR/KRG to have a mid-cap company that they can control. No doubt a lot of interest in GKP/Shaikan almost certainly exists, but what would be the tipping point? An agreed oil and gas law being passed? Who knows?
All I do know is after holding GKP shares for a significant number of years now, I am enjoying the dividends and would prefer to keep receiving a decent return than selling out at such a low valuation that is currently placed on us. Just a shame some people haven’t lived to get to this point to reap some of the rewards.
GLALTH
Hi ****eye
Please see link below
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares/valuation
Even SW thinks we are massively undervalued fair value if £6.61! SW is typically very conservative in my opinion so to see this swing in there analytics is very encouraging.
GLA
Well he is more aligned than JF that’s all I would say.
Hi,
I posted links to two articles from a long time ago for a bit of fun, obviously other people have copied these in various guises.
I have no agenda I am a long term holder wishing to see a good return on my investment as simple as that. I am not blind to the risks and have suffered personally from the issues of the past.
I am more positive than ever with the new CEO more aligned to shareholders.
GLA