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If I remember it’s a $100m unsecured loan with no early repayment fees. Paying 10% interest. This is due in 2023 with a facility to borrow an additional $200m.

Key point is that it’s unsecured

GL

If I remember it was a $100m unsecured loan charging interest rate of 10%. There are no early repayment fees with payment due in 2023. There is also a facility to borrow a further $200m.

Key thing is that it’s unsecured.

GL

The oil price is looking strong again today heading towards $75 a barrel. A lot of positives building for GKP including:

- higher oil price
- opening economies
- 2 x $25m dividends
- increased uplift to 55k bopd due Q4 after being brought forward
- increasing cash build
- agreement on arrears payments approx $68m discussions taking place
- potentially further dividends and/or buybacks on top of already planned dividends
- FDP including gas management plan being discussed
- very capable CEO who has made a very positive start
- increasing oil demand enhanced by the need for the majors to diverge away from fossil fuels
- almost $200m cash (less debt if $100m due 2023
- cost pool approx $500m

Downsides
- single customer, single asset
- longer payment terms
- anti fossil fuels movement

Overall my only surprise is that the share price is still lingering around this level, the market cap is ridiculously low on any measure given the above.

The market will catch up I believe.

GLA

Hopefully should be a positive week leading upto the AGM on Friday.

Given the positive operational update, the expected approval of 2 x $25m dividends is there anything else JH is going to pull out the hat?

Personally I would like to see movement on the discussions with KRG/MNR regarding the repayment terms of the debt owed and/or FDP progress.

So in his short period in charge he has made a very positive contribution including:

- restart of upgrade
- announcement of dividend
- additional special dividend
- brought forward delivery of upgrade
- intention to move forward the FDP

In addition to the above I like the greater clarity instead of the smoke and mirrors of JF. I have a feeling our new CEO might just start to realise true value of Shaikan.

Can’t fault the start he has made, hopefully investor confidence will return now the rotten core has gone (Ferrier and Sami) who where obviously brought in to do any specific job which clearly wasn’t working for private shareholders.

Onwards and upwards!!!

Hi TM,

I am surprised we are still below £2 with the dividend announcements on its own let alone increasing oil price (approaching $73/barrel) and now the positive news today.

Be interested in resistance levels beyond £2?

Thanks

I don’t think we will need luck, payments are made albeit late but the numbers will do the talking here. If you don’t want to get a 10% dividend plus capital growth then look elsewhere I guess.

The transition away from oil is going to present huge challenges and is not going to happen over night. The NOC and the independents will do well from this as the majors are forced to stop exploring/investing in new fields. Scenes from Madmax for the older guys in a few years then?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/NNPC-Lack-Of-Investment-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html

Hi Malcom,

I believe alternative investments could be a good option however given that all the majors are having to divert towards cleaner energy (they are using the profit to do this) and the lack of investment in exploring new fields there will be an inevitable crunch on oil supply over the coming years which could serve the independents very well.

I have always liked the idea of diversifying or acquiring another field in a different country purely to try and reduce the risk of single asset/country/customer operation.

Either way with significant cash inflows it’s nice to have options available.

GL

The increasing oil price doesn’t seem to be having the desired effect on GKP/Genel share prices the last time oil was over $70 barrel GKP held a share price of £3 and that was without a dividend being paid.

Surprised we haven’t seen bigger gains over the last few months, I would suspect this will change as we approach ex dividend date and also the USA driving season kicks off.

With cash accumulating I think the CEO will have to think about how to best use the spare money, I see a buyback and/or further dividends over and above the already committed $50m.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Leading-Investment-Firm-EVs-May-Offer-Negligible-CO2-Advantage-Over-ICE-Veh.html

Fair value 2-3bn

Putup - like I said keep trying the reality is a lot of long term holders have a significant sums invested in GKP including myself.

Like any investor you should have a balanced portfolio so yes I am very bullish about GKP and more confident I have been for many years, the new CEO has certainly made a good start. I continue to add when it suits me and I will take dividends when I suits me I don’t consider bulletin boards as a basis for any investment.

I like a lot of long term holders got caught out with GKP so I am all for balanced opinions believe me. However your not fooling anyone on here. There have been a lot of posters that have come and gone all of which have their own reasons.

There have been some ridiculous valuations thrown around for GKP at both ends of the spectrum. Everyone will have their own target and I just hope the genuine long term holders manage to at least get their money back at some point.

Meanwhile I will continue to hold, add, take dividends, reinvest dividends whenever suits my personal circumstances.

Maybe when you get your 50% you will be happy but I will be waiting for more than that ;)

Hi TM

Your absolutely right regarding the % return on dividend end will vary depending on your price paid but given the current market price it’s a very good yield.

Given that there will be a natural dip when we go ex-div in almost all circumstances the SP recovers to previous level so depending on your investments strategy/portfolio is suits some to take the dividend and others to reinvest and get the compound effect. I guess this largely depends on personal circumstances.

Personally I would like to see a combination of dividends and buybacks and I think GKP are in a strong position to do this so I wouldn’t rule it out later in the year.

Putup - I am not suggesting anything each has their own opinion and reason for investing in GKP. I certainly wouldn’t suggest to anyone to have blinkered view of only thinking the positives. Believe me having been involved with GKP for a number of years you cannot only think of the positives.

I do find your enthusiasm to focus on the downside quite intriguing but I am sure you have your reasons. I also don’t expect extravagant double digit billions but I also believe GKP is undervalued and will wait for my own personal targets to be achieved.

My personal opinion is that Oil will continue to be the dominant source of power for many decades to come and no doubt millions of others agree with me. No doubt there will be a transition to ‘cleaner’ energy but that is going to take significantly longer than a few years away. The reality it’s moving away from fossil fuels can’t be ignored but the demand will continue to increase certainly over the short/medium term as despite the alternatives their currently isn’t another option to fuel the world.

So like I said I am sure many long term GKP investors will be happy to continue to pick up 10% dividend. Let’s face it someone is going to have to continue to pump oil despite all the rhetoric from the majors, highly profitable independents will no doubt do very well going forward :)

Putup - you make me laugh so transparent for a person so positive about value in GKP you appear somewhat negative about future prospects. Maybe you should sell up?

Meanwhile I am sure a lot of LTH will hang around and continue to collect the 10% dividend oh I forgot that’s the equivalent of selling isn’t it ;)

Keep trying!

So as much as the drive to move away from fossil fuels is gathering pace the vision and reality are two different things. The reality is despite the high percentage increasing growth in EV purchases they still represent less than 3% global sales and that’s in developed nations. That’s before we look at everything else oil is used for.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Climate-Revolt-Against-Big-Oil-May-Lead-To-Surge-In-Crude-Prices.html

Ok different country, lighter oil but $8bn for 1bn reserves!!! Good to see big acquisitions are still out there

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Multinational-Majors-Announce-Billion-Dollar-Investment-In-Brazilian-Oil-Field.html

****eye - not meant to be selective hype it’s reality there is no doubt headwinds ahead with the debt piling up but the general consensus is that we are in a better place than a year ago and oil prices will rise.

All I am trying to point out is that the doom and gloom is not the total picture. I too would want a much higher share price than is currently but I am encouraged by the new CEO but it’s early days. Not surprised by the KRG but again pointing out that it’s not a specific GKP problem.

If GKP delivers the GKP uplift then we could be catching a rising oil price and will be a cash generating machine which gives us lots of flexibility going forward. Whether that is too not expand further (fully legitimate to me) and return cash to shareholders and/or explore opportunities elsewhere?

There are a lot of positives about GKP at the moment show me another company with a market cap less than 350m returning 50m in dividends?

GL

So seems quite a lot of negativity about at the moment but personally I think we have to put things in perspective. A year ago we had a global pandemic, no vaccines and no way route out of the never ending lockdowns, markets crashed and people lost their jobs.

We are in a very different place now, we have multiple vaccines, markets are opening up and oil demand will increase. Regardless of the inevitable road to EV take up and move away from oil (which despite the rhetoric is many decades away).

The CEO has made a very positive start with clearer communications, restart of the ramp up to 55kbopd, reinstatement of 25m dividend and also threw in another 25m special dividend for good measure!!

Granted KRG are up to their usual tricks but we are getting paid (albeit later than the latest arrangement) but this isn’t a GKP issue this is a wider regional issue which has been their for along time when we have previously been valued at 3.5bn+

There are a lot of positives for GKP let’s not forget that when comparing to a lot of over valued non profit making organisations returning nothing to shareholders.

I am a long term holder and have been burnt over the last few years but I am more positive now than at any point in the last few years.

GLA