Member Info for LongStrong

Well played CEO need to ensure any profits are distributed to shareholders and/or used elsewhere like exiting Kurdistan!!

Get to 55kbopd and be the cash cow we can be, why invest more without a stable payment mechanism from the KRG.

Whilst it’s inevitable EV purchases will increase we are still many years away from removing the dependency on oil. When reality bites EV’s can no doubt suit many people’s lifestyles with short commutes however for EV’s to really take off there has to be a couple of other drivers in my opinion:

- infrastructure needs massively improving this is going to take years let’s face it how many places in the UK do we still struggle to get a phone signal or a decent internet connection let alone a convenient EV charging station
- Increased range, most EV’s average approx 250 miles on a full charge, I suspect the tipping point for many people would be 400+ to reduce the range anxiety
- Reduced cost to purchase, as with all newer technologies the first adopters will fund the up scale of EV’ for the future therefore until we get to a place where you can buy a decent EV with good range for 20K we are immediately closing off the vast majority of car purchasing public

Overall the experience has to be at least neutral for most people and we’re not there yet, evidenced in the article below. I see ICE being the dominant power for many years to come and this is before other forms of travel.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/18-Of-EV-Drivers-In-California-Switched-Back-To-Gasoline-Cars.html

Nufc- totally agree regarding your comment ‘oil here to stay’

The perception and reality are two very different things you read headline figures about EV’s growing by 150% etc but overall purchases of EV’s compared to ICE cars is less than 1% worldwide. No doubt that will shift over time but it’s a long way off. Then you have a the small matter of air travel and the billions of manufactured products that use oil. Oil is most definitely here to stay, if anything I believe post pandemic we will see a surge in prices given the pent up demand for worldwide travel etc.

GLA

Given we are planning to deliver 55bopd upgrade Q1 next year could be good to catch the upswing in demand.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Worlds-Largest-Oil-Trader-Expects-Strong-Demand-Rebound-This-Year.html

Looking at a few posts on here it’s clear a few cages have been rattled regarding valuations lol

Whether you try value GKP by reserves, PSC, or any other method the company is undervalued by how much that’s where we have wild valuations in the double digit billions or the ridiculously low valuations. My guess it should be somewhere in between.

Amazing how many so called long term holders put so much effort into explaining why GKP is only worth a fraction of what people think, funny that isn’t it?

Seriously lesson one don’t trust anyone on a BB as most have their own agendas. My agenda is to wait this out until it gets to a valuation where I am happy to cash out and move on and in the meantime happily collect my dividend.

GKP has seriously attracted a lot of cranks considering it’s a 500m crackpot firm that some May led us to believe.

Oh well whether Surreyscot, CCC,wiseman,putup, rags to riches are correct who knows but one thing for sure everyone one of them will have a strategy!

GLALTH

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shell-To-Exhaust-Dwindling-Oil-Gas-Reserves-By-2040.amp.html

CCC - whilst I agree a lot of what JH has done in his short tenure have been open goals, he has still delivered which JF continually failed to do.

JF consistently over promised and under delivered and his lacklustre leadership and lack of trust in the market place clearly weighed on the GKP share price.

I agree there is still a long way to go before we can declare JH a success but his start is at least very encouraging in my opinion. Judgement on him should be made further down the line when we see delivery of value creation through hitting targets e.g. the 55kbopd expansion plan, approval of FDP, additional shareholder distributions and ultimately an increased market cap.

Promising start but a lot for to come which at least makes things a lot more exciting than the dour approach of JF.

Agree it’s not a huge amount bought by JH approx 50k worth but it’s 50k worth more than JF ever bought and it sends a strong signal to the markets.

The reality is it’s no more than a token gesture but I would much prefer JH approach thanks JF. Since starting his position he has made all the right moves including:

- publishing updated CPR
- restarting 55kbopd to project
- restarted dividend payment (quite wisely I think at a low level with the option to offer more later in the year)

Even the RNS are not as cryptic as when JF was at the helm so all in all great start from the new CEO

Jon Harris making all the right moves at the moment, really can’t fault his start at the helm. Let’s hope it continues and thank god we are rid of JF.

Frustrating all the recent positivity is wiped out very quickly with the delayed payments. This isn’t only a GKP problem as none of the oilers have been paid yet.

No doubt payment will land shortly typically not long after a dip in share price so maybe tomorrow?

Still lots to look forward too, the CEO has made a decent start, can’t fault him at the moment so let’s hopefully build on this by delivering to the timelines for the ramp upto 55kbopd.

Fully expect the rollout of vaccines to ramp up across Europe and economies opening up over the coming months which will drive demand. The timing of the uplift to 55kbopd could be perfectly timed to capitalise on this in Q1 2022.

Hugely undervalued let’s look forward to the upcoming dividend and hopefully more to come.

So wonder what this week brings us? We should receive our monthly payment by the end of the week approx $20m added to the coffers with approx $180m making a significant cash holding.

Suspect oil price will be under pressure this week with slow rollout of vaccines in Europe and travel bans remaining in place.

GLA

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Moves-To-Exploit-Its-Massive-Natural-Gas-Reserves.html

Hi Toonman - just took the total $50m paid for 2019/20 which was 0.2297p / 2 = 0.1148p

Link on website below:

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/share-price-information/#dividends

Very pleased with the update and especially the $25 dividend (at least this figure). Which works out approx 11.4pence per share.

Nice to see a much clearer communication too compared to previous ambiguous statements from JF.

Confirmation of cancellation of shares, confirmation of plans for Gas management. I like the approach from the new CEO he has made a very encouraging start long May it continue.

GLALTH

Looks like a good week ahead...

- year end results Wednesday (dividends/buybacks?)
- oil price steadily rising (opec+ agreement)
- February payment due end of week another $20m+
- USA vaccine rollout pace picking up, EU will get there at some point all pointing towards increasing demand for oil
- dare I say it budget approval?

A lot to look forward too.

GLALTH

Meaning exactly what?

This is a discussion forum I have put my valuation differs with yours and what? The reality is we are massively undervalued in my opinion.

Putup - let’s see the game isn’t over yet is it :)

My biggest concern is not low ball valuations posted on a chat room but GKP getting taken over on the cheap.

Fortunately GKP is no longer a distressed seller, has a very healthy balance sheet, on the cusp of producing 55k bopd and in all probability will announce a dividend next week and you are suggesting a valuation less than £1bn I really don’t think the large institutions would be happy with their return.

Let’s beg to differ!

Kaaran - wrong the reserves do matter in relation to the PSC effectively GKP can extract all the oil of it chooses too in the life of the PSC. The reality is this field will grow as most large fields do so it’s unlikely GKP will run the field dry.

If a large E&P was to take over GKP the likelihood would be they would ramp up the production considerably faster and also realise the yet untouched ‘potential’ in other parts of the field not included in the CPR.

So reserves matter, the ability and will to extract the reserves is a different topic.

Putup - my money and my mouth are firmly aligned thank you very much. I have been a long term holder for quite some time and stand by my personal opinion of a target valuation. Nothing fancy a straight forward $/barrel based on reserves which is a legitimate mechanism to value an oil company (there are many others as you maybe aware!). Below is a rough cut:

Reserves
1P reserves = 240 @ $3 = $720m
2P reserves = 505 @ $2 = $1010m
2C resources = 293 @$1 = $293m
Total = $2023m
Plus cash on balance sheet (approx $200m) less debt leaving approx ($100m)
Plus arrears £73 Sterling
Plus monetary value attributed to cost pool ($500m) although this is debatable.

A £3 share price would value GKP with a market cap of approx £625m lol now your having a laugh. Who is trying to kid who? Show me another oil company that is so undervalued.

Putup... this is my opinion and for your information I am heavily invested in GKP currently underwater like a lot of long term holders.

The valuation is based on applying a $ value to reserves nothing complicated just a straight line valuation.

Do the same and see where you get too!