Member Info for LongStrong

OwenJones - the strangest thing is that after the first CPR the BoD at the time were fuming about how conservative they had been, the company that undertook that was ERCE given the questioning of accuracy of the first CPR why on earth would you continue to use the same company.

Surely if you are not happy with the findings of the first the obvious option would be to use another company to get a 2nd opinion or undertake future CPR’s.

Inv they will all probably have gagging orders as part of their pay offs.

Let’s be honest while Todd Kozel could sell he also caused a lot of problems for GKP taking on debt that wasn’t sustainable.

I don’t think there have been many innocent parties who have worked at senior level within GKP

That would value GKP at under £1bn which is ridiculously cheap, remember we have had a share price that valued us at over £4bn previously.

I think fair value at the moment would need to be £2bn+ So in answer to your question I would not want to sell at £4.

JF has been a disaster for LTH whilst he runs off into the sunset with millions in his bank from his failed management of GKP let’s look forward to a new era.

The share price reaction says everything let’s hope we land a heavy hitter CEO who can sell the GKP story and build confidence and value in our company.

GLA

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/investing/oil-price-spike-jpmorgan/index.html

Apparently Morgan Stanley have a price target of £4.50 for GKP can anyone find the broker note? This would value GKP at just under £1bn which despite all the current troubles is ridiculously cheap based on current reserves.

First of all I just want to pass my thoughts to Mikey, this company has done a lot of things to a lot of people however there are events sometimes that put things into perspective, stay strong Mikey and enjoy your time with your cherished ones.

The world has changed in the matter of weeks, GKP is in a very strong position to profit from this change providing they receive payments and that’s the crux. We are one of a very few producers who can still make money at a very low oil price but that’s only the case if we are getting paid.

I have been through the pain along with a lot of long term holders but we are in very different shape compared to last time. We have a strong balance sheet, stable producing field and very little debt.

KRG play your part otherwise the country becomes bankrupt with no revenue via oil.

GLA

We should be due a payment soon to bring us back in line with the 90 day payment terms (loosely kept too)

Expect the next payment to Be lower than normal as production volumes for October 25.7k bopd compared to 37k in September.

November and December payments should be quite chunky given higher volumes although somewhat dampened by the lower oil price.

Still waiting for monthly payment, I was expecting a bigger payment than previous couple of months due to uplift in volumes.

Deadly silence is killing sentiment, no operational update regarding pipeline or progress against plan.

Come on GKP management team deliver something!!

After the initial positive reaction to the appointment of the new CFO we have seen the usual drop...assume another monthly payment will drop then!

The SP is so closely controlled at the moment which is very strange given the amount of positive news in the pipeline. I would hope once we see some of the news realised then the SP will react accordingly ridiculous valuation currently.

I just find it gobsmacking that an MP who is paid by taxpayers can then ‘work’ a few days/hours a month and earn millions.

Here hoping for some positive news soon with completion of buy back and completion of pipeline tie in.

I must admit I thought we would be at least touching 1bn valuation now and on our way back to previous figures of 2-3bn plus given all the positives.

GL

Hi Surrey, this is actually an old article please see the link below:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/03/tory-mp-nadhim-zahawi-owns-property-worth-more-than-25m

This slimeball has his fingers in many pies and it’s shocking that during the time he ‘worked’ for GKP he contributed nothing and earned probably more than a nurse earns in her whole career.

On the positive side as far as I am aware he has no further involvement with GKP apart from possibly holding some shares.

Previously been valued at £3.5bn albeit that was with an extra field but at the time there was not a regular payment mechanism or route to market.

Personally massively undervalued even based on a very very conservative CPR. Should be looking multiple Billions if based on asset.

So to my reckoning the dividend payment for the 2nd tranche is incorrect the remaining $33m should be divided by the shares remaining after the share buyback on the record date (20th Sept). Surprised there has been no correspondence explaining why this isn't the case.

Looking ahead we have received payment slightly earlier this month which as expected was a lower payment due to lower volumes however lots to look forward too.... with approx $55-60m payments due for oil produced July-Sept the balance sheet is still looking very healthy and thats after the CAPEX commitments, sharebuyback and the $50m dividend payments.

Also, awaiting confirmation of pipeline tie-in which should improve the net price received another boost to profits :)

Alot to look forward too in my opinion, amazes me we are still here sitting on a MCAP of just over £500m is laughable really, when the volume uplift is proven and the money keeping rolling in at a much higher rate than currently I see a rerate happening, first target has to be £1bn+

I have never known a dividend to be taken for shares held in treasury. I am very surprised that the remaining 2/3 was not split between the shares not in treasury.

Still a nice dividend but surely this isn’t correct?

Sounds like a mistake as a) the dividend is due to be paid on 4th Oct and b) the dividend should be around 12p

I think something like this happened to a few people when the last dividend was paid back in July

I think based on published resources and cash on hand $8bn is optimistic that would give a share price of approx. £35 although if previous reports are to be believed regarding actual reserves then who knows.

Personally based on what we know as of now I would be looking at £2bn+ which is a SP of approx. £8.80 although GKP has previously been valued at £3.5bn when we were not producing.

GL

Given we have now received payment for May's oil we are now back in line with everyone other oil company operating in Kurdistan i.e. 90 day payment terms.

Looking at the last operational figures we have in public (from the 21st June presentation) May production figures averaged 35.5k BoPD (so 1,100,500 barrels sold in May assuming May invoice was based on 31 day calendar month). Given we have been paid $20m for oil produced in May gives us a rough cut $18.7 a barrel income.

Whilst I know its flawed but doing a straight line correlation to producing 55k BoPD (1,705,000 barrels/mth) using the same figures in a 31 day calendar month would generate revenue of $31.9m which is mightly impressive given the current company valuation.

There has to be and will be a rerate once we see operational progress achieving the increasing production figures. I know these figures will probably get hammered as there are so many other variables but this just provides a very rough cut projection based on current revenue/barrel.

GLA

Given the share buyback and the reduced number of shares in issue the upcoming dividend will be approx. 12p not too shabby :)

I would estimate there is approx another $3-4m left of the initial $15m released for the buyback and notice the larger buys since Peel are doing the buying instead of Cancord. I would assume that the other $10m set aside for the buyback would be released soon to support a rising SP.

Another payment should arrive shortly too....:)

With all the rubbish that has taken place over the last few years with GKP, bruised and battered but still standing it worth remembering the potential GKP still has given we are now a proven producer with a route to market, fully funded development and even paying dividends.

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=8029&LANG=