Member Info for LongStrong

Massively undervalued at the moment, look at the FCF at 55kbopd even with the low oil price we currently have then it’s only a matter of time before a rerate.

Unfortunately still paying the price of the carnage over the last few years and mismanagement. The operation has consistently delivered even when virtually no investment was made for almost two years.

First target £1bn

GLA

There are so many positives to think around GKP at the moment yet the share price is clearly being held back, so what is it actually going to take to get this back to around the £2Bn+ valuation previously held when in a lot worse position?

Payments are rolling in and are only going to increase in line with the higher volumes, the field development is fully funded clearly stated mulitple times by the BoD. The share buyback picking up any slack and decent yield dividend being paid with a commitment of at least $25m per annum going forward.

The only fly in the ointment I see is the economic instability with fluctuating oil price, however even this should be seen as a positive to GKP as they clearly state we have some of the lowest lifting costs in the world so can still make profit even at a very low oil price.

The date for the half year results should be released shortly, would expect this to take place early September with dividend payment to follow soon after, so whilst we wait for the capital growth which surely must happen given the fundamentals happy to pick up a nice yield which is much better than any savings account can offer.

Lets see us kick on from here...I expect Sept onwards should be an interesting time with announcement of 2nd dividend payment and update regarding pipeline and operational progress on the field development.

GL

Where is the payment for April, surely must be landing soon, would expect another 17m or thereabouts.

Another 17m must be due this week....surprised not to see a sustained rise with buyback taking place although probably not a bad thing as more shares will be taken off the table with the current SP level.

Our April payment will be due soon, looking at the production volumes for April suspect it will be around the 17m mark :)

Arden started coverage of GKP the other day with a buy recommendation of £3.80

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Real-Reason-Why-ExxonMobil-Wont-Go-Ahead-With-53-Billion-Iraqi-Megaproject.html#

As if by magic looks like Blackrock reduced holding.

Hi Mikey,

I didn’t think the buyback had commenced yet but thanks for confirming. I am surprised it hasn’t started as being ex-dividend would probably be a perfect time to grab as many shares as possible at this low price and hopefully retire them.

Hi MikeyT21,

There was a follow up RNS confirming the share buyback commencing shortly, see below:

https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14354853&ishtml=1

Whilst I always find broker targets a little behind the times there are a couple of updates today for GKP

a) Peel Hunt reinterates buy with increased target price of £3.90 (updated today)
b) Arden commenced coverage with buy rating and target price £3.80 (updated today)

Very good Stray...

You made me laugh, ironically so correct :)

GL

Really well he hasn’t done much selling at GKP lol

Agree probably a decent number two but need a front man that can sell the story about the company.

Anyway enjoy your dinner tonight lol

Stray,

They need to improve communications and deliver, confidence has gone in JF he built up the signing of PSC amendment then that all seemed to disappear, the original timeline for 55k was Q4 2019, got shifted to Q1 and now Q2. His credibility is shot, so give him a last shot at this and see if he can deliver otherwise change of CEO.

Kozel for all his faults (and he had a lot the greedy bugger) he could sell the story to institutions JF just isn’t a salesman and that’s what I think we need at some point.

Ultimately CEO are generally judged on developing shareholder value so let’s see if after his 3 years in charge he can finally deliver, who knows?

Siete - for me this BoD has to get the share price up pretty significantly in order to warn off a hostile takeover. There must be numerous majors interested.

Everybody knows this is worth £2bn plus even on the current low CPR figures, however if a predator came and offered £5 a share now how could that not be turned down given its double the current market cap. When in reality the current market cap bears no resemblance to the true value.

It would be difficult for a purchaser to justify a higher bid even if they know its worth more, remember any potential buyer also has to justify how they spend there money.

Hence I think the importance of getting the share price more reflective of the value £2bn plus.

Wrong it’s about 1-2 weeks late, the terms have been 90 days for a long time this is the same for all the IOC operating in Kurdistan.

Very happy to be holding GKP absolute cash generating machine...just wait until producing 55k plus. Share buybacks, dividends, fully funded to 110k bopd what is not to like!!

Happy for some of the long time holders finally getting something back, mid to longer term this is looking very good!

For those who haven’t seen them documents discussing the valuations of several fields in Kurdistan including Shaikan.

https://wikileaks.org/berats-box//fileid/30563/12847

https://wikileaks.org/berats-box//fileid/30563/12845

https://ekurd.net/kurdistan-sell-oil-fields-turkey-2016-12-27

Surrey is right the dilution happened before the consolidation I.e. the consolidation was purely to reduce the number of shares in issue, the percentage of share you owned didn’t change for the number of shares in issue.

The original dilution was what killed long term holders and now sadly leaves a lot needing a much higher price to what is current.