Member Info for LongStrong

This is old news from genel which was released via RNS on 20th Aug so why would this be raised now? It has nothing to do with GKP so not sure why this is perceived to be relevant IMO.

GKP looking good at the moment and given the prospect of increasing oil price due to downtime in Mexico see below then personally I see a lot more to go for GkP

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/66-Of-Gulf-Of-Mexico-Oil-Production-Still-Offline-On-Friday.html

GLALTH

I really don’t get why people are so obsessed about whether a buyback happens or not. The technical understanding of returning capital to shareholders will not differentiate whether it’s a dividend or buyback but depending on your individual view you will prefer one over the other. Ultimately the market cap reflects the market valuation of the company. If a company where to approach GKP now they would look to buy them based on the current market cap which is scary as they are IMO hugely undervalued.

A lot of different valuation methods can be applied to GKP or any other oil company and each will return a different result. My personal opinion is that I would like to see a steady increase in share price (market cap) to avoid a cheap takeover.

Meanwhile for those that would like to see an increase in market cap and share price good luck :)

As a rough cut each well is capable of producing 5k however being conservative then operating at 50% 2.5k sounds reasonable.

Personally I think £25 a share is optimistic if you look at previous valuations and also future profit based on current PSC a valuation in the region of £2bn isn’t unreasonable which would give a sp target of £9.50.

The issue we have is that the share price has been depressed for so long people are now starting to believe a 10% lift is good the reality is is we are still valued under 0.5bn which is ridiculous.

I personally don’t think trolling or ramping does the company any good and would like to see a nice steady rise to a more sustainable valuation based on facts and figures.

Thanks new CEO has given me some confidence that we will start to rise to a more realistic valuation. If a takeover happens it happens but I wouldn’t want one to happen now as I feel we would be taken out on th cheap.

GLA

Another nice RNS confirming approx. $30m added….feel another positive day coming.

Great news all around onwards and upwards, have a great weekend all!

After many years of being let down, hoodwinked and disappointed it’s really nice to have a day like today which has been the most positive for many a year.

Looks like we are finally going to achieve significant growth and deliver. Like a lot of holders I am still underwater here but I am now more confident than ever that we have the jigsaw pieces coming together.

No doubt there will be more curve balls along the way but let’s focus on the positives that JH seems to be finally delivering on the huge potential of shaikan.

No doubt there will be people trying to pick holes in anything or everything and try to justify why we are so lowly valued but cash speaks and if we keep delivering then buyers will follow.

Let’s see that payment RNS tomorrow.

Hi,

I can’t see the recorded webcast on the website yet, hopefully it appears later today.

Cheers

A few positive snippets from the call I captured…

- reason for dividend over buybacks was speed of execution but ongoing review of shareholder distributions will consider both going forward
- feel that there is opportunity for buybacks as the current share price has a long way to run :)
- typically approx 5m bopd per well so extra well would probably make use of processing capacity
- reason for the additional well was to continue the momentum of growth
- looking to establish a regular pattern for shareholder returns i.e. interim dividends
- positive dialog about FDP and expect to submit Q4 but would expect further negotiations once submitted

Overall a very positive call, good clear concise answers from all BoD.

Very well done team GKP onwards and upwards!

I have to take my hat off to JH he really hasn’t put a foot wrong since joining, yes he has had some luck with the decreasing impact of pandemic and oil price rise but overall much more positive.

Really feels like we are gaining momentum now with the right CEO in place. Getting to 55k bopd is game changing and the fact we have drilled another well in advance of further expansion shows the level of potential and confidence. Thank god we still don’t have JF at the helm or we would be sitting here scratching our heads again.

Well done JH and hopefully the massive potential is starting to become reality. Would be nice to see the payment RNS land in today too to really propel the share price. Time for rerate?

GLALTH

Wow as expected strong FCF and another dividend of to be paid in October!

Not intended as a ramp or otherwise but £10/share would still only value us at just over £2bn which is amazing really….

I think we need to get to £2 first which values us at approx. 400m market cap which is ridiculous. It just shows how the market views us at the moment.

GLA

So I was hoping for an RNS this morning confirming payment of approx 30m. Hopefully it should land tomorrow, noticed none of the Kurd oil companies have yet received payments.

I like a lot of long term holders are frustrated as hell at the mismanagement of GKP over the years. Like a lot on here I am under water with my investment but we have to remember where we are at the moment. The chairman has been useless, the new CEO has started well and hopefully this continues.

Q3 is typically a tricky month for oil companies just look at history, given this and the rise in Covid cases in Asia and America this has all put further downward pressure on the share price. Additionally we also have the anti fossil fuel movement.

However when you look at GKP there is a lot of positives to come, we are generating FCF of millions, we are paying dividends and expect either further dividends and/or buybacks in Q4.

The oil price is steady at around $70, we are receiving payments and top ups from the arrears albeit lower than originally agreed.

In addition to all this we are sitting on a large reserve base and will be delivering 55k bopd in only a few months time all of which strengthened with a strong balance sheet and more ‘potential to be delivered’

GKP is in its strongest position for years it’s just not reflected in the share price at the moment. But if the 55K bopd uplift is delivered as expected I fully expect a share price correction taking place.

GLALTH

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/w3z1ljr

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Kurdistan-Region-Look-To-Resolve-Long-Standing-Oil-Dispute.html

HSBC are the worst they typically take 2 weeks to pay out!

HSBC can take upto 10 days to pay the dividend into your account bloody awful bank.

We seem to be stuck in a share price range of £1.80 - £2.00 which is quite frustrating for a lot of people. Especially given the recent positive news (dividend x 2, bringing forward ETA for uplift to 55k bopd, increased oil price etc) So looking ahead what do we think could break this cycle? Below are some thoughts:

- confirmation of buyback
- confirmation of FDP agreement & gas plan
- confirmation of oil & gas law
- improvement on debt repayment proposal
- confirmation/progress against plan for the 55k bopd
- increasing oil price
- further dividend/cash distribution
- black swan event (M&A, Farm in etc)

Either way based current numbers we undervalued so would be nice to start to see movement towards a more ‘realistic valuation’

GLA

https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Kurdistan-considering-utilizing-flared-gas-for-power-production

Would expect payment to land Friday might offset the natural fall in SP of going ex-div.