Member Info for LongStrong

Previous figures where around £2bn, not my numbers these were the numbers that even the ex CEO JF mentioned in an interview.

There has always been something that has held us back (whether it’s poor management, missed payments, oil price crash, Baghdad Erbil relations, law suit, lack of oil and gas law, lack of route to market etc etc).

The reality now compared to many years ago is that we are profitable, have a well established route to market, pay dividends yet we cannot get anywhere near previous valuations of £4bn plus. You have to wonder why?

My personal view is that it suits the MNR/KRG to have a mid-cap company that they can control. No doubt a lot of interest in GKP/Shaikan almost certainly exists, but what would be the tipping point? An agreed oil and gas law being passed? Who knows?

All I do know is after holding GKP shares for a significant number of years now, I am enjoying the dividends and would prefer to keep receiving a decent return than selling out at such a low valuation that is currently placed on us. Just a shame some people haven’t lived to get to this point to reap some of the rewards.

GLALTH

Hi ****eye

Please see link below

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares/valuation

Even SW thinks we are massively undervalued fair value if £6.61! SW is typically very conservative in my opinion so to see this swing in there analytics is very encouraging.

GLA

Well he is more aligned than JF that’s all I would say.

Hi,

I posted links to two articles from a long time ago for a bit of fun, obviously other people have copied these in various guises.

I have no agenda I am a long term holder wishing to see a good return on my investment as simple as that. I am not blind to the risks and have suffered personally from the issues of the past.

I am more positive than ever with the new CEO more aligned to shareholders.

GLA

Below are links to two historical articles on GKP (I know a lot has changed since these were published but still……)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/739961-gulf-keystone-petroleum-what-is-the-14-billion-barrel-shaikan-field-worth

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-gulf-keystone-paper-idUSTRE7BH0FV20111218

Lol

Given the HY results today and the prospect of a FDP being approved what valuation could one put on GKP?

Given the previous CEO Ferrier openly started he felt GKP was a 2bn company (there is a sharetalk video him saying this) and his predecessor Kozel stating a much higher figure albeit he is in prison! What do we think is a decent valuation?

Providing a valuation is quite tricky as there are so many different valuation methods and then factor in potential as well as geo risk then it becomes very subjective.

My personal view is that we are undervalued at the moment by some. Just a basic calculation based on reserves below (crude I know pardon the pun) but opens up for discussion:

1p - 224m barrels x $3 = 672m
2p - 489m barrels x $2 = 978m
2c - 293m barrels x $1 = 293m
Total = $1.94bn

This excludes cash on hand, and any additional possible reserves in areas that have yet to be explored.

Needless to say we are undervalued by how much depends on your valuation method and what price someone would be willing to pay. Personally I would prefer to be seeing us sitting at a much higher share price than currently to avoid opportunistic bids.

GLA

Excellent set of results and good overall management with additional $25m dividend.

I think the dividend is sensible and not over aggressive given the increase in capex.

Interesting to see a further update of the FDP submission took place in June too.

Hopefully the market likes the update

GLA

Who would have thought that we would finally be debt free!

Strong cash flows for remaining likely due to high oil price fully expect further dividends to follow.

Should he past £3 by now but let’s see

GLA

HSBC probably one of the worst takes 2 weeks

I don’t think there will be any surprise when they announce GKP PSC as invalid too along with everyone else’s. The reality is that these contracts have been in place for years, Iraq have tried everything possible to gain control of the fields via the KRG and have now tried to target the companies themselves.

This will run on and on until and agreement can be made but that is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Meanwhile keep picking up the dividends and enjoy hopefully more positive news soon with the additional well coming online soon.

GLA

Agree it’s crazily oversold.

Disgusted at the appointment of NZ but not surprised…not going to comment further but I think any LTH knows what I am talking about.

Regarding the rapid share price decline over the last few weeks, personally I think it’s a massive overreaction, if we look at the two factors driving this:

- macro economic concerns, possible looming recession, yet here we are with the oil price still holding above $100, yet to receive large payments where the oil price was higher still and the summer driving season about to kick in, overall shortage of supply

- threat of legal action, well again for any LTH this isn’t really anything new with the dispute being ongoing for a number of years.

Overall if we look at the fundamentals we are in a very healthy position, soon to be debt free, paying a very high dividend yield, have a good solid CEO who is aligned with his shareholder base

I am happy to hold, continue to receive my dividends, and ride out any volatility, and certainly won’t be panicking and letting the institutions pick up my shares until I believe a) the share price reaches a fair valuation or b) we are taken out and my hand is forced.

GLA

Why all the scaremongering, the reality is that oil is being pumped, money is being paid and dividends are being received.

GKP is in such a good position, probably the best it’s been for years, Will he debt free and on the cusp of increasing production. I would say that’s positive regardless of other macro conditions.

GLALTH

Interesting appointment, would have thought we had enough NED but obviously not.

Maybe an appointment to take some heat off the chairman and the CFO?

Pleased this is happening and completely makes sense given the current cash flow generation.

Decent update and what a yield!!

GLA

Finally outsiders seem to be taking notice of the near 20% yield GKP is throwing off, this is ahead of other possible positives over the coming months including:

- uplift in production towards 55k bopd
- start of SH-15 in Q2
- possibility of FDP approval
- increasing oil price for a sustained period

We might finally see the breakout we have all been waiting for.

GLA

Great news today, fully expected an increase in dividend this year but wasn’t expecting it so soon.

Overall very positive for GKP at the moment despite its still stubbornly low valuation. Not many companies returning the cash GKP is currently to shareholders.

Really could do with this breaking the £3 barrier, have felt for many years and even remember our previous CEO (glad he is gone!) quote 2bn plus valuations. Hopefully we can kick on from here and start to see us move towards a more realistic valuation. Triggers immediately spring to mind include:

- positive operational update 55k bopd
- FDP approval
- M&A activity

All good so far but feel it’s just the beginning…

GLA

Confirms what we already know high oil prices are here to stay for some time yet. Still feel this isn’t fully priced into GKP share price.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-Sees-Brent-Crude-At-107-In-Q2-2022.html

Other possible levers for a rerate include:

- update on progress to 55k
- update on FDP
- further dividend/buyback notices

Given we are set to receive a healthy dividend payment this Friday with another 9p planned post AGM in June I would say things are looking good.

GLA