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After many years of being let down, hoodwinked and disappointed it’s really nice to have a day like today which has been the most positive for many a year.
Looks like we are finally going to achieve significant growth and deliver. Like a lot of holders I am still underwater here but I am now more confident than ever that we have the jigsaw pieces coming together.
No doubt there will be more curve balls along the way but let’s focus on the positives that JH seems to be finally delivering on the huge potential of shaikan.
No doubt there will be people trying to pick holes in anything or everything and try to justify why we are so lowly valued but cash speaks and if we keep delivering then buyers will follow.
Let’s see that payment RNS tomorrow.
Hi,
I can’t see the recorded webcast on the website yet, hopefully it appears later today.
Cheers
A few positive snippets from the call I captured…
- reason for dividend over buybacks was speed of execution but ongoing review of shareholder distributions will consider both going forward
- feel that there is opportunity for buybacks as the current share price has a long way to run :)
- typically approx 5m bopd per well so extra well would probably make use of processing capacity
- reason for the additional well was to continue the momentum of growth
- looking to establish a regular pattern for shareholder returns i.e. interim dividends
- positive dialog about FDP and expect to submit Q4 but would expect further negotiations once submitted
Overall a very positive call, good clear concise answers from all BoD.
Very well done team GKP onwards and upwards!
I have to take my hat off to JH he really hasn’t put a foot wrong since joining, yes he has had some luck with the decreasing impact of pandemic and oil price rise but overall much more positive.
Really feels like we are gaining momentum now with the right CEO in place. Getting to 55k bopd is game changing and the fact we have drilled another well in advance of further expansion shows the level of potential and confidence. Thank god we still don’t have JF at the helm or we would be sitting here scratching our heads again.
Well done JH and hopefully the massive potential is starting to become reality. Would be nice to see the payment RNS land in today too to really propel the share price. Time for rerate?
GLALTH
Wow as expected strong FCF and another dividend of to be paid in October!
Not intended as a ramp or otherwise but £10/share would still only value us at just over £2bn which is amazing really….
I think we need to get to £2 first which values us at approx. 400m market cap which is ridiculous. It just shows how the market views us at the moment.
GLA
So I was hoping for an RNS this morning confirming payment of approx 30m. Hopefully it should land tomorrow, noticed none of the Kurd oil companies have yet received payments.
I like a lot of long term holders are frustrated as hell at the mismanagement of GKP over the years. Like a lot on here I am under water with my investment but we have to remember where we are at the moment. The chairman has been useless, the new CEO has started well and hopefully this continues.
Q3 is typically a tricky month for oil companies just look at history, given this and the rise in Covid cases in Asia and America this has all put further downward pressure on the share price. Additionally we also have the anti fossil fuel movement.
However when you look at GKP there is a lot of positives to come, we are generating FCF of millions, we are paying dividends and expect either further dividends and/or buybacks in Q4.
The oil price is steady at around $70, we are receiving payments and top ups from the arrears albeit lower than originally agreed.
In addition to all this we are sitting on a large reserve base and will be delivering 55k bopd in only a few months time all of which strengthened with a strong balance sheet and more ‘potential to be delivered’
GKP is in its strongest position for years it’s just not reflected in the share price at the moment. But if the 55K bopd uplift is delivered as expected I fully expect a share price correction taking place.
GLALTH
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/w3z1ljr
HSBC are the worst they typically take 2 weeks to pay out!
HSBC can take upto 10 days to pay the dividend into your account bloody awful bank.
We seem to be stuck in a share price range of £1.80 - £2.00 which is quite frustrating for a lot of people. Especially given the recent positive news (dividend x 2, bringing forward ETA for uplift to 55k bopd, increased oil price etc) So looking ahead what do we think could break this cycle? Below are some thoughts:
- confirmation of buyback
- confirmation of FDP agreement & gas plan
- confirmation of oil & gas law
- improvement on debt repayment proposal
- confirmation/progress against plan for the 55k bopd
- increasing oil price
- further dividend/cash distribution
- black swan event (M&A, Farm in etc)
Either way based current numbers we undervalued so would be nice to start to see movement towards a more ‘realistic valuation’
GLA
https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Kurdistan-considering-utilizing-flared-gas-for-power-production
Would expect payment to land Friday might offset the natural fall in SP of going ex-div.
If I remember it’s a $100m unsecured loan with no early repayment fees. Paying 10% interest. This is due in 2023 with a facility to borrow an additional $200m.
Key point is that it’s unsecured
GL
If I remember it was a $100m unsecured loan charging interest rate of 10%. There are no early repayment fees with payment due in 2023. There is also a facility to borrow a further $200m.
Key thing is that it’s unsecured.
GL
The oil price is looking strong again today heading towards $75 a barrel. A lot of positives building for GKP including:
- higher oil price
- opening economies
- 2 x $25m dividends
- increased uplift to 55k bopd due Q4 after being brought forward
- increasing cash build
- agreement on arrears payments approx $68m discussions taking place
- potentially further dividends and/or buybacks on top of already planned dividends
- FDP including gas management plan being discussed
- very capable CEO who has made a very positive start
- increasing oil demand enhanced by the need for the majors to diverge away from fossil fuels
- almost $200m cash (less debt if $100m due 2023
- cost pool approx $500m
Downsides
- single customer, single asset
- longer payment terms
- anti fossil fuels movement
Overall my only surprise is that the share price is still lingering around this level, the market cap is ridiculously low on any measure given the above.
The market will catch up I believe.
GLA
Hopefully should be a positive week leading upto the AGM on Friday.
Given the positive operational update, the expected approval of 2 x $25m dividends is there anything else JH is going to pull out the hat?
Personally I would like to see movement on the discussions with KRG/MNR regarding the repayment terms of the debt owed and/or FDP progress.
So in his short period in charge he has made a very positive contribution including:
- restart of upgrade
- announcement of dividend
- additional special dividend
- brought forward delivery of upgrade
- intention to move forward the FDP
In addition to the above I like the greater clarity instead of the smoke and mirrors of JF. I have a feeling our new CEO might just start to realise true value of Shaikan.
Can’t fault the start he has made, hopefully investor confidence will return now the rotten core has gone (Ferrier and Sami) who where obviously brought in to do any specific job which clearly wasn’t working for private shareholders.
Onwards and upwards!!!