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Dividend payment landing today which is nice, approx. 700k remaining of buyback funds and hopefully announcement over next weeks regarding continuing buybacks.

Ongoing discussions which will be resolved at some point meanwhile enjoy your dividend guys.

GLA

Hopefully they don’t come after us with another low ball offer

https://stocks.apple.com/AaIqcUPSaTDmZRd5TCg9nsg

Why would it go into free fall, please educate me?

As far as I can see the company is making profit even on local sales, distributing cash via dividends and buybacks.

What I personally see is a company being well managed in a difficult situation that is likely to improve over time. Reopening of pipeline and agreement on back payments will be transformative for the value of GKP.

Belgrano - If I remember they were storing in silos on site but could be wrong, suspect they sold this first before restarting production?

I am feeling quite positive following the announcement on back payments for a few reasons:

- they have recognised the debt

- they have made a first proposal

- discussions are now three way

I think this is now where AIKPUR members should leverage their strength in numbers to drive a good deal. I suspect this is going to take some time but at least we are now seeing the start of negotiations with the IOC.

GL

Could get very interesting considering we are owed almost half our current market cap in back payments that’s before any possible agreement on future assurity of payments

GLA

Having been involved with GKP far longer than I ever expected, have experienced people coming and going on this board spouting the demise of GKP or the 50bn valuations (extreme isn’t the word).

GKP holders have gone through a lot over the years (including myself in here). But we all have choices but more, hold, sell etc and I suspect the long term holders have already made their decisions.

We have seen war, lack of payments, taking fields from us, false promises aplenty, pandemic, oil no longer needed brigade etc etc. the reality is the time we have really been delivering great dividends, growth starting to materialise with good management from JH we get the carpet pulled from under us.

But and it’s a big but this is not just impacting GKP it’s impacting so much more than that and the fact we are debt free, covering our costs and dialogue is taking place I remain optimistic of a resolution.

Whilst there is doubt there are shorters and until shorting is banned then that will continue.

GLALTH

So management reshuffle takes place

Ian to step down - I actually think he did a decent job

Kimberley resigned - due to taking up another exec position

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/xop722r

GLA

Sounding more promising of a resolution for the use of the Turkey pipeline, although nothing is certain and we have been burnt many times before.

Looking forward I would hope confirmation of a resolution and backpayments a rerate should occur.

Given that an amendment to the law and oil would be passing through SOMO we would be ‘legitimate’ producer being paid via Iraq which should theoretically de-risk significantly. How much value would that add given we have previously been heavily discounted even prior to the pipeline closure?

If you look at peers then it’s clear GKP is hugely undervalued given proven resources. With legitimacy, back payments and regular payment mechanism then surely we would become much more attractive to potential acquirers.

This in turn gives me some concern, given the historical valuation of GKP could this put us at risk of a low ball offer upon resolution of the pipeline issue. I really hope not hence I would hope we would see us rerate to a more reasonable level pretty quickly.

GLA LTH

The reality is that you need to decide which camp you sit in and then have the balls to see it through, in my view everyone has choices as follows:

- sell out (possibly at a loss and move on)

- trade the dips (could be risky as things could change quickly)

- bet long or short (if you are into that kind of thing)

- accumulate on the dips (reduce average but gain greater exposure/possible risk/reward)

- hold (accept there will be up and down days but hold for the long term possible gains)

You make your choices and you live with them, I made mine a long time ago, whilst it’s distressing to go through the sh&t we have over the last few years you either believe things will improve or you don’t.

Everyone obviously entitled to their own view and opinion, and I certainly wouldn’t let any bulletin board influence my personal decisions!

GLALTH

Some encouraging words coming from Barzani although nothing is done until we see the RNS land and back payments being received.

‘Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani told Rudaw reporter at a press conference in Baghdad on Sunday that they are on the "right path" to resolving stalled oil exports with the federal government’

Whilst this whole sad affair is dragging on much longer than I had hoped the outcome should provide us with certainty and stability which we have never really had in the past, that in itself provides a firm foundation for a much higher valuation of GKP and others.

Let’s see if we hear of progress over the coming weeks, meanwhile it would be good to see increased local sales (as clearly DNO/Genel are increasing sales).

GLA

Terrible offer it will be a NO from me.

I think the alignment of contracts was inevitable it’s now about ensuring the IOC get a fair deal they are comfortable with and back payments are honoured.

Not sure how much GKP has remaining to claw back in previous investment costs based on the current PSC so be interesting how this is going to be handled.

The alignment of contracts I would imagine will also provide certainty which in turn I would expect provide more interest from those majors already operating in Iraq.

Interesting times ahead, fasten seat belts and GLALTH

Completely disagree, the valuation at the moment is clearly depressed due to the political stalemate regarding the restart of the pipeline.

The original euphoria upon discovering oil in the first place was bigged up by a certain man currently in prison who loaded the company with debt.

No matter which way you look at valuing GKP if you remove the uncertainty regarding the arrangements between Erbil and Baghdad GKP is ridiculously cheap given the the current CPR is only evaluating part of the Shaikan field.

I don’t support the pumping and ridiculous price predictions but I also don’t agree with the trashing of what GKP currently have and in my personal opinion previous statements from former CEOs (who are not in jail) of a realistic valuation of approx. 2bn are not far away.

I like quite a few on here are long term holders and have seen many people come and go on this BB with valuation opinions that suit their own interests, but at the end of the day let’s see where we end up.

Obviously disappointed that the saga of the closed pipeline continues but taking the emotion out of things (which is hard to do having suffered more downs than ups during my time being invested in GKP quite a few years now) when we look at the facts in front of us there is clearly an overreaction in my opinion with the SP. My reasons are as follows:

- Scaremongering regarding GKP as an ongoing concern, they have no debt, positive FCF and a cash balance 80m+

- Previously we have held a 4.5bn yes billion valuation when we didn’t have a proven field, had lots of debt and no route to market.

- We are now debt free, proven reserves (albeit we have less fields and had to for the privilege of handing them back)

- We have over 80m in the bank and are currently covering the monthly costs including maintenance from local sales

- Both Turkey and Iraq are losing money currently which will at some point bring them together to reach a conclusion

- We are owed in excess of 150m

So yes not too comfortable watching and holding but if we look at the bigger picture I believe JH has done a good job since taking over from JF (god help us if he was still in charge).

Once this is resolved we should be in a much stronger position and then gradually start to get to the valuation levels that are merited given the potential returns Shaikan can deliver for many years to come.

GLA

It’s pretty horrible holding at the moment but i continue to hold (only my personal view others will have different views). The reason I hold is that I still believe a resolution will be found just when who knows. Since I have been invested in GKP we have had the following:

- ISIS war

- Debt and restructuring

- Pandemic

- Oil price crash

- Legal challenges

- Non- Payments

- forced to pay to give back fields

- Chinese performing analysis on Shaikan

- Mis-management with former CEO being jailed

Yet we have overcome all, the reason….Shaikan

Despite the challenges the asset continues to deliver, after a spectacular year of dividends last year I was hoping of more of the same if not better given the rise to 55k bopd then all hell breaks loose.

Not for everyone but I do genuinely believe given we are debt free we can ride this storm like all the others and finally start to deliver somewhere near the value of what we should be.

GLALTH

Have been reflecting on what has happened over the last few months below are some thoughts:

- up until the pipeline was closed GKP was delivering one of the highest dividend yields

- debt paid off

- finally reached 55k bopd

- KRG switched pricing to Kurdish blend (not agreed with us or other oil companies) and again slipped behind on payments

Since the pipeline closed there have been various false agreements (Erbil/Bagdad) budget, switching to SOMO, even a request to Turkey to restart pipeline.

So purely looking at what is in front of me what is preventing this happening, as physically there should be no reason not to restart pipeline. Apart from:

- Turkey don’t agree paying Iraq 1.5bn fine

- Turkey want assurance regarding future fines

- It could be convenient for Iraq to withhold Kurd oil to meet OPEC obligations

So where do we go from here:

Well it’s been three months much longer than I or many others thought, yet there will be a conclusion at some point just when, so here is how I see things

- the pipeline is reopened and GKP and others recover

- delays continue for how long who knows, GKP and others cash on hand continues to fall therefore other revenue streams needs to be found - this includes selling to local markets or exporting via other paths. If this was to happen GKP and others couple continue indefinitely

- no alternative source of revenue is found and all oil companies go bust with oil fields abandoned

So based on the above I believe 1 or 2 will happen, the 3rd option is possible but unlikely in my personal view given Kurdistan as a nation would be finished, and the reputation of both Turkey and Iraq even further tarnished.

The reality is Kurdistan have been poor partners, they have taken fields back, they have not paid on time, they have not supported the growth of Shaikan. If SOMO do take more control it will put GKP and others in a more stable position going forward which would naturally encourage more interest in the assets.

I have been a long term holder here and whilst it’s not a nice position to be in at the moment personally I continue to hold and believe 1-2 will happen but this is just my personal view.

GLALTH

Overall I think the presentation was as good as it could be given the situation. Ideally we would already be selling locally to keep cash flow going (albeit reduced) but good to see moves taking place here.

Also, encouraging to hear current cash position with reduced cash burn as well as the token reduction in fire or payments. Good to hear confirmation of outstanding receivables 151m.

Given there is a planned meeting in Iraq with Turkey on Monday hopefully we start to see some positive momentum building to opening the pipeline.

GLA

No it’s good management to preserve cash and protect everyone’s interests given uncertainty. Why would you pay out $25m without having confirmation??? That would be reckless.

Interesting appointment…

https://shamaranpetroleum.com/news/shamaran-appoints-garrett-soden-as-president-and-c-122841/

I smell shorters lol (Mr Terry?)

Agree with Victor, Wiseman and others that have been in here for a long time.

It might take time but it will be resolved, a big proportion of the market is driven mg sentiment and herd mentality and there will be panic by some but nothing by has changed in todays RNS that we didn’t already know.

Fortunately GKP has a strong balance sheet and can ride out this storm until conclusion. Probably the main reason GKP suffering more than others is that it has issued an RNS and credit to them!

The darkest days are always before brighter times ahead.