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The company doesn’t have to use the $10m clearly it was put in place as a defensive move if needed. I wouldn’t expect this to be converted into dividends it simply won’t be spent.

Saying that I am still expecting a $25m dividend announcement in March, clearly dependent on outcome of arrears payment this could be significantly higher.

As mentioned by a few there are still steps to be overcome here but the news over the weekend is hugely significant and really does pave the way for rerate particularly once the pipeline starts to flow and we see the payments rolling in.

Exciting times ahead.

Just a few snippets from the 2024 half year results gives you a sniff of the impact this could have:

- selling at international prices could double realised price

- additional upside from payment of $150m arrears

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/08/GKP-HY-24-results-presentation.pdf

Still things to clear all the obstacles but today was a huge huge step I feel to start realising some of the potential we have.

GLA

Looks like they have passed the budget bill, great news for us and another step towards restarting exports.

GLA

Things looking positive with noises coming out that we should get approval to reopen pipeline over the weekend. Which got me thinking, given the number of false dawns around this over the last couple of years is this another or is this the moment that can define the future of Kurdistan oil industry?

We know we have legitimate contracts, we know we have a great asset, we have a good CEO who is distributing excess cash to us folk. We also know even with a yes vote on Sunday (which would be big news) there are also further steps required before we start exporting like agreeing arrears payments etc.

Either way it’s good to see and feel some positive vibes about this as for far too long we have been driven down to think we are in a complete dud of a share and that’s not the case regardless of the outcome.

Enjoy the ride and let’s see where we are on Monday, anyone considering being out at the weekend ;)

GLA

Hi Roger,

I think you inadvertently highlighted the problem, the roller coaster that is GKP has been beaten down so much that expectations have now become so low. Not sure if you have ever read the Ryder and Edison reports but either of them give you an indication of the potential size of Shaikan (I am not saying this will ever be realised).

Even with the conservative proven reserves public at the moment we are grossly undervalued. A lot of the reason for this is obvious given the political games we are caught up in.

However, when I invested here almost ten years ago I never believed the wild valuations thrown about and neither do I believe that we are worth such a lowly sum.

Even JF who was a terrible CEO went on record that despite relinquishing our other filed licenses (and paying the privilege to do so for SA) we should be in the 2bn+ plus valuation territory in a radio interview. The problem is we have been held down for so long that we have been manipulated into thinking we are now worth considerably less.

Personally I think JH has done an excellent job in difficult circumstances and hope that we do not get taken out on the cheap (which I consider anything below 1.5bn). I would much rather prefer picking up a very healthy dividend on a regular basis than getting taken out below what many may consider fair value.

All in my opinion and I am definitely not saying any of this may or may not happen (I would never take any advise off anyone on a BB).

Best of luck and let’s see if we can overcome the current obstacle of getting the exports open again.

GLALTH

Could be another reason for the urgency to get things moving again? 300k bpd shortfall from the worlds 2nd largest producing field in Iraq.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Fire-Shuts-In-300000-Bpd-of-Oil-Production-at-Iraqs-Giant-Oilfield.html

How many putups, Itza have ‘graced’ this BB to push their own agendas only to run off into the sunset when they have got what wanted.

Meanwhile also remember not alot has changed apart from a hold load of hope being dashed by further delays. But we are still profitable and will still be paying a dividend in a couple of months all with the inevitable resolution at some point in the future with regards to pipelines and export routes.

Ignore the noise and remember while you invested here in the first place.

GLALTH

This was never going to be easy given the political agendas of the different participants. Excitement was clearly building so the inevitable pull back was bound to happen if the vote did not go ahead as planned.

However not alot has changed, we are still generating FCF, committed to distributing the excess cash in form of dividends and buybacks, we are in a remarkable position of being debt free. The asset is continuing to deliver and will continue to deliver beyond our lifetimes and the proven reserves are likely to increase over time given the fact large fields tend to get bigger as more knowledge is gained.

And importantly the vote will take place whether that is this week or next it will happen and then we will know where we stand I.e. the KRG will look elsewhere for other export routes or we have an agreement in place. Either way the contacts are legitimate and we are a profitable company being run prudently by a very good CEO in my opinion.

GLALTH

Nice movement over the last few days although we also need to keep perspective the sp is nowhere near fair valuation even based upon local sales.

If/when the pipeline does open and contracts are agreed/honoured along with back payments this changes everything. It opens a whole lot of new options whether that is to continue as an independent and fund future growth throwing off extra FCF as dividends or we are swallowed up by a major either way if this pans out well we will all be in alot better place.

GLA

HNY stray

Regarding the 30p estimate dividend is two-fold GKP completed one buyback and apparently in progress of another so there is another 20m. Plus increased confidence in pipeline reopening provides opportunity to drop below the 90m they have generally held on the balance sheet.

A possible third consideration is potentially increased demand.

Either way I think we are in for a good year. Remember in 2022 albeit different macro conditions and oil price etc they paid 80p dividend over the year.

GL

HNY all, given we are generating FCF from local sales and are still able to declare dividends and buybacks what are the predictions for dividend payments during 2025? I have two thoughts as below:

- based on local sales only estimate 30p to be paid during 2025 calendar year

- if pipeline reopens 50p plus dividends assuming reopening in Q1

- if pipeline reopens and positive agreement on back payments then 80p+

Thoughts???

GLALTH

For a bit of fun here are some predictions for 2025:

- Trump turbo boosts the economy

- Tesla buy Ford

- Iraq finalise oil law and the pipeline restarts

- USA confirm UFO sightings

- GKP pay $30m final dividend

- GKP and Genel finally merge

- Pfizer buy GSK

- Putin is ousted and war in Ukraine ends

- Macron becomes Trumps butler

- Biden is uncovered to be an AI robot

- Oil prices reach $100 Middle East conflict

- Trump buys Greenland & makes a snowman

- BoJo is elected Tory leader again

- Liz Truss becomes a GKP strategic advisor

- Starmer reduces taxes to boost economy

- Man U get relegated and Big sam takes over

- it rains at Wimbledon and play pickleboard

Anyway all best wishes for the new year and despite some of my predictions I am quite confident we should have a decent year ahead with GKP.

GLALTH

Agree a solid operational update with no surprises which is good. Keep ticking over and distributing excess cash until resolution is found for the pipeline.

GLALTH

Itsa - If you so convinced then why don’t you sell up and move on instead of wasting time posting here?

Nothing has changed they stated a few weeks back that they were targeting early Jan, people got a bit overly excited and now turning this into a narative that suits them.

GKP has no debt, is still making decent free cash flow and paying dividends, patience is key.

GLALTH

Https://x.com/apikur_oil/status/1856840867975139382?s=46&t=ZfBp1hGg9OojHnX4qrxP_g

Sounds quite positive, clearly things moving along.

GLA

Dividend payment day today so hopefully everyone can enjoy. Looking ahead I am liking the return of dividends and happy to continue to pick up in my view increasing ones going forward.

Despite all the constant talk of takeover over the years I would much rather have a juicy dividend yield than a takeover at a valuation that doesn’t recognise the potential.

Quite like the fact that the buyback is more of a layback too, as provides flexibility to provide stability to the share price and avoid shorting to some degree.

The dropping of pipeline news has become irrelevant I feel as there has been so many false dawns since it closed that until an RNS lands I don’t think we will see significant movement in the sp although when the news does land I would expect a complete rerate (assuming the T&Cs are favourable)

GLA LTH

Personally I don’t think there is anything suspicous with the lack of buyback activity if anything I am encouraged by it. Whilst the sp has been extremely depressed since the pipeline closure it has held steady over the last few months which again is encouraging.

I do think they are being sensible at what price they are spending the 10m war chest on and maybe it was there more of an insurance to be able to react to any shorts, who knows but I think it’s prudent and good management.

Nice to see the exchange rate for the dividend be quite kind too. Overall I am positive about the outlook when you can achieve probably minimum of two 7p div a year just on local sales alone then wow what opportunity we have once an agreement is eventually reached on the reopening of the pipeline.

GLA

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Gas-Companies-Set-To-Spend-More-in-2025.html

Great news this morning regarding the dividend and buyback. Once we get confirmation of the pipeline reopening maybe we will start to see the huge potential and value finally being realised. The fireworks will really start to go off then!! What’s the value of nearly 1bn barrels once pipeline opened, backpayment scheme agreed and a legitimate payment mechanism is in place? £5+ ???

Slowly slowly catch a monkey, although this monkey is getting on a bit been waiting that long!!

GLA

Decent set of results and as expected protecting cash balance with promise of future distributions later in the year providing FCF continues.

Personally I think this is the right thing to do given the uncertainty as protecting the liquidity of the company has to be the priority.

GLA