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"So GKP are keeping all the monies collected currently"
I wouldn't read the "$8 million related to buyer advance payments collected by GKP" as GKP collecting the gross sales proceeds and hanging on to them but rather this is their share of sales made in advance.
"From the RNS:
"Cash balance of $82.1 million at 30 August 2023 with no debt
o Includes GKP's entitlement for local crude sales and $8 million related to buyer advance payments collected by GKP" "
So it's interesting... Yes cash was $82 million but that's with $8 million collected in advance and (at least as of June 30) payables sweated at least to the tune of $21 million. Cash normalised for those two: $53 million. Expect any receipts from local sales to merely allow some normalisation of the payables/advance payments rather than building cash on hand.
"Only essential maintenance to 40k/50k bopd should be considered right now. "
That's already the case. Except some capex was committed to well before the pipeline was shut. Any further cuts impair speed of restart. They're already not paying suppliers (to the best of their ability) as evidenced by the increase in payables.
Ho hum boys. Wait for some proper news.
If there is, it’s not involving Erdogan as he’s chalked to meet putler to thrash out a grain deal.
One being up could be put down to PI exuberance but both?
Maybe something is happening behind the scenes. Looks like us PIs as usual will be the last ones to find out.
And a nice positive rise. As I say, under current circumstances I see 1.20 as very fair.
Kheldar. 40k bbl/d is an aspiration with no guarantees and lots of hurdles and at $30. Resuscitate Brent at near $90, it’s a waste of resources. This company had a plan to ramp up to 100k bbl/d, that will never be realised selling to local sheisters. Without the ability to export, this share will never realise its potential, fact, and the institutional investors we need to move this company forward will avoid, fact. Fair value at 135 is probably right with a following tide and a fair wind. I wish it were a different story but I’m a hold until the ITP is flowing with Shaikan crude.
We were at 1.20p with no local sales therefore it should be way north of here
Swell316 wrote ‘ Without the ITP, this share is in irons.’
Of course it is mate, if GKP increases sales to 40k bopd , it will only have free cash flow of about $7m a month. 😂
Without the ITP, this share is in irons. Too many PI’s and not enough institutions to move this on fundamentals.
Last week the company announces it has increased sales of oil from 5K to 23k meaning that the monthly expenditure was now covered from GKP share of the profits. The do gooders spread their FUD on here last week with the help of the Reuters article (courtesy of a writer from that great city renowned for its knowledge of finnancial matters - Bangalore) causing some PIs to sell. It was all bad news apparently and the market doesn't like it.
Today the market has had a change of heart but according to these do gooders the market is talking nonsense and we should listen to them.
As usual DYOR and ignore the FUD. I.m sure those who sold on Friday will also now join in hoping to get back in at a lower price :-)
No news and nothing on the horizon, this will retrace by COB.
Few positions being taken today it seems. Is there some news out there that we are not party to.
Lol
In General Management terms, right now the job is to rein in costs and develop sales concurrently.
And on that matter of cost control, capex features large.
Only essential maintenance to 40k/50k bopd should be considered right now.
If they can sell it @ meaningful prices!!
Stating the blindingly obvious.
Forget the 'dream' for a moment and settle on the survival and development of GKP in its current circumstances.
Bod mentioned external financing in last rns
Investors starting to realise this is the bargain of the year
"It's now time for KRG to reciprocate"
Reciprocate? Do you really expect the KRG to reciprocate!?🤔
From the RNS:
"Cash balance of $82.1 million at 30 August 2023 with no debt
o Includes GKP's entitlement for local crude sales and $8 million related to buyer advance payments collected by GKP"
I'd suggest you re-calculate.
Volume of oil from 19/07 to 29/08 = 535,600 barrels
Roughly 37% to GKP @ $30/bbl, about $6m.
Best Regards ValueS
Some great posts Kheldar, thanks for sharing...So GKP are keeping all the monies collected currently and putting it against debts owed.
More excellent news which certainly safeguards our company and is the most cost effective process.
Mulder, you spend a lot of time on a BB for a share that is only 1% of your portfolio which, must be SOME portfolio! Do you have staff that help manage it for you, whilst you're doing the important stuff on here?
@theoryman - I am not saying what KRG has done is right. All I'm saying is that we are getting paid. What I do see though is that GKP have a good relationship with KRG and have shown understanding for the late payment.
It's now time for KRG to reciprocate and help GKP liquidity issues by allowing GKP to keep the revenue from local sales and offset against the $150m.
@Kheldar, roughly 37% of the oil lifted is owned by GKP at the point of transfer.
So the MNR has sold by agreement what belongs to someone else but withheld payment without their agreement.
It might not meet the criteria for robbery but I’d be very surprised if it didn’t meet some other criteria for illegality :)
If nothing else it shows an attitude of mind as to how you treat others.
GKP up 5%, Genel up 5% , DNO up 2.6%
Good start to the week, long may it continue.
Reliance, I'm not bashing or ramping. I'm pxxxed off I didn't jump this and take profit at 165 to 185 range April 4th. Because I would have made 300k euro odd, so yeah it's damn annoying. But I'm not selling now, if I didn't sell then, am I?
Looks like arma has flipped again. Guess he's aiming for a 10% trade before starting to bash this again. Yawn.....
Let's take the histrionics and emotional turmoil out of this.
GKP is fully functional at current production levels of 23k bopd ( let alone 40k bopd ) and even @ $30.
The Board have a duty to inform investors of their concerns as to future performance.
And they have.
Including the possible need for further cost cutting measures and even the prospect of further funding if necessary.
They also have a duty to inform shareholders of ultimate failure. GKP is finished.
But if anyone on this bb thinks JH is sitting idly by and watching/hoping what he's done to shore up curent FCF is enough, then they are way out of their depth.
If he's as competent as I think he is, GKP will be trawling sales from various new 'contacts' and working hard to improve the market price locally. Or trying to develop new markets for their products.
Because, come what may, the oil will flow.
And sooner or later that tap will be turned back on.
But this time the IOCs will hopefully (via AKIPUR) be able to determine the direction of travel re regular payments and contractual commitments. If they stand solid. Unfortunately some of the members are not in the same financial position as GKP, so we'll see...
And if they're smart, it will be before they recommence pumping oil.
Once again I stress, the oil will inevitably flow.
This when JH earns his money, and he's at least made a start.
And a good one for my money (literally!).
@theoryman - I’m not saying GKP were paid on time but as GKP BOD make clear in the presentation they have been paid albeit late.
If we have been paid the we have not been ‘robbed’.