Member Info for wyndrum

if somebody comes to a BB with no rational argument for a different view then it becomes impossible to converse with them.

The best thing to do (imo) is just to completely ignore the thread so that it dies out straight away, otherwise it becomes very tedious, degenerates often into name calling at the end of it no one is any the better off for any of it.

Ok, I see now , . Does EVE give monthly breakdown figures?

Gen, Am I misunderstanding what you are saying?

y/e 2019 T/O £23.85m
y/e 2020 T/O £25.20m

Not sure where this 100% growth is from that you mention?

Thanks Dubs, FWIW, I read it that CC would not be using the cash pile to invest (which I agree is the right philosophy generally with a company's cash reserves) unless she was convinced it would not jeopardise all the good work and hard slog thus far.

Coupled with the hiring of new staff (which I think is also strong positive) suggest a bullish forward forecast.)

And only to reiterate: I think it just depends on how the city reacts to it: Will they agree with her that it is the right time to go after growth as we came out of the pandemic and people (broadly) go back to work on full pay again.

On balance I think they will because A: she has a done a good job in steadying the boat up to now and B: She has not over egged the forecasts previously. (So I just hope she is at least, half as enthusiastic as most here about EVE's prospects when she present the figures. GLA

Dubs, I posted this on Tuesday:

"I think Gen, you are putting too much emphasis on the £9m. By your rationale you are already assuming that the last 6 weeks have produced £1 m profit which assumes in 6 weeks that EVE has gone from at best breakeven to very profitable.

CC said in Jan that the £8m would be used to fund French expansion. This implies its not likely to come out of (assumed) profit this year.

So it sounds to me as if the forecast will be of higher sales growth but that expanded sales will, at least in part, have to be funded by current cash pile.

How the city reacts will depend on their view of their trust in CC. I think given her brief track record she will get the benefit of the doubt. But at the same time I can see the SP relatively treading water again while confirmation of the strategy pays off.

I think I said a while ago, this may be the last "one step back before taking two steps forward" before the company really starts to motor ahead. Its a tricky call."

I am not sure why this is such a surprise (if it is)?

When I said "... the SP downside looks pretty good around these levels." I meant assuming no bad unexpected news, then the downside looks limited from here.

No idea D, but I thought doh's reincarnation was MattDamon. But I have ceased to care and not sure now if its worth the candle to bother with that BB.

GLA here though, it will be interesting to see how this goes SP wise. As I have said, very tricky to call, good arguments on both sides for a rise and a non-event. (Unless its bad news ie falling sales), the SP downside looks pretty good around these levels.

Orange you said: "What kind of reaction are you expecting when you post with a negative slant and somehow think you have influence on SP direction or 'I think it will drop to x level because the chart says so' ?

And then follow it up with:

"Keep that **** to yourself or open a telegram or something assuming you have friends - no ones interested."

Firstly. where do I say or imply I have any influence on the SP? You have simply made that up. Who do you think I am that on a BS BB, me, stating the bloody (obvious that shares do go down after a steep rise), will make any difference?

And then to finish off, you are for no reason, just rude? Why do that? Does it make you feel big or clever? did the 17 recs give you a warm glow for being unkind?

Are you so desperately insecure with your own investment that you felt compelled to write such a ridiculous post?

I also think Matt, that other posters here are viewing this from already having a holding. That colours peoples views.

Say you did not hold any AVACTA but have been watching them,and you have seen the very sharp rise over the last few days would you be concerned that you had "missed the boat" or at least would feel "better" if you waited to see the SP fall a bit before you bought in for the first time?

To understand it Matt you have to divorce the SP from the company.

Charting is about the behaviour of crowds and if you believe in crowd behaviour then, as its crowds of people who buy and sell shares, it is actually relatively easy to make an assessment of what is most likely to happen next.

So, yes, buy your ticket to the show but do you want to pay £80 per ticket when you could have bought the same seat for £50?

Tim, Vegas & Matt

I can't help it if you don't understand the principles behind charting. Shares get ahead of themselves and technically get over bought, (and the other way is they get "oversold"). Its not to do with fundamentals.

AVCT has been on a run of rises and went into overbought territory which means they WILL fall at some stage to rectify that state of affairs. I suggested it was most likely to happen today, and it has.

As the retrace was so slight it is still very close to being over bought and as such there is little incentive for other new buyers to come in at this level as they will most likely wait for a further fall. (I think most likely to the 235p ish.)

I have been posting chart related views for some months now and I don't see the connection of that to being a Gloom & Doom merchant but hey ho.

Yes we did D, however HL hasn't updated the daily close chart yet so I can't see what the RSI has come down to. My guess is mid 70's but I still think its more likely (assuming no news tomorrow) that we will have another quiet pull back to bring the RSI down further.

If it bounds upwards from this very minor retrace, then that confirms sentiment is very strong indeed, but as I say, in the absence of any news, there is no particular reason to buy tomorrow (imo). I still think 235p ish would be a natural and obvious place for the SP to take a breather down to and then kick on upwards from there.

its rare though, and it tends not to be signed contracts/deals etc.

My understanding Vegas, is that companies are not allowed to hold back market moving info that could result in insider dealing. As a result that info is made available to the market outside market trading hours wherever possible. Happy to be corrected.

FWIW I think its just the interviewer was caught off-guard in the first interview into quite how many pies AVCT has got its sticky fingers in and wants another interview to explore the potential of these, due to the time limitations of the first chat.

I can't see it being based on news about to be released as you can't hold RNS's back, so I think its a bit more general then maybe some here think. (Of course it COULD coincide with news released tomorrow or Monday morning.)

The daily close chart shows a double bottom around 6p and with a close above 6.4p suggests further rises of at least to 6.8p and beyond. So we are pretty close to that now.

On the intraday chart a slightly lower price of 5.91p acted as a support and a break above 6.8p would again suggest further upward movement.

So, given the SP can only go one way, (and that's either up or down), then it looks more likely up than down right now. (fwiw)

(A close below 6p would potentially look to the next support around 5.4p)

I understand completely what you mean Dumbledore, except, that argument can be used on any stock at any time, ie unexpected breaking news, so its not particular to AVCT.

But the thing to remember is that Chart "predictions" are really only playing an "odds" game. No one can predict the future but charting (if you believe in all this mumbo jumbo), is simply saying, there is more chance than not of " XYZ " happening. (Doesn't mean it will, just that it is more likely than not).

Also it is more aimed at short term price movement ie intra day or maybe a day or two, so the chance of breaking news within the day is rare.

And recently I have interpreted the AVCT SP action fairly accurately even though we have been in the midst of quite a lot of breaking news, so it can be helpful, I think?

Sparticus its a tricky call right now.

Since yesterdays high, the intraday chart ( with 15 minute intervals) has gyrated around to allow a technically "overbought" SP to fall enough to allow further gains (which it did towards the end of play yesterday and has continued today. ) This would support you expectation of further gains today/tomorrow.

However, the day chart has had no such reversal/retrace yet and as a result is now in overbought territory suggesting a fall is likely any time (day) now. (The "problem" or tricky bit, is there is nothing to stop the SP closing higher today than yesterday and simply making it even more overbought!

So to conclude, the SP has to have a day where it closes below where it opened (a down day) to stop it looking as overbought as it is and it is odds on to be any day now. As I say the tricky bit is it could (just for the sake of argument) spike and close at 270p today and have the down day tomorrow and close at 255p, ie higher than it is now!

Having said all of that, I think most likely today we will see the fall and maybe see a retrace to 235p ish However I, like just about everyone else here recognises that it is all seeming to come together now and I would not trade this, as this risk reward does not seem worth it.

The relatively sharp fall from 250p has allowed the RSI indicator to come out of "overbought" territory allowing further gains on the intra day chart.

Whether that will happen of course is another matter but from a non-chart viewpoint, given the muted response to yesterdays RNS, and the lack of one today but in spite of that a very strong move in the SP, suggest a leak has taken place and I would think the last 15 minutes of trading will be instructive, (but as I say I am just using my experience rather than any real chart indicator.)

PD, what I don't understand, is how you don't understand AVCT when you have already bought some? Did you do no research at all and just bought them on a whim?