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If there was a placing (and it is a real outside bet but I thought quite intriguing because it potentially answers why there has been so little director buying, the off load of a large shareholder and the stalling of the SP in the run up to the results), it would have to be for good news, or very, very bad news. I don't think it can be bad news because of the last update in Jan so it ergo would have to be good news. Something along the lines of huge initial demand in FR meaning we need to get more warehouse/office space/ infrastructure, whatever.

That would do it

dummy sell is at 5.98p, which suggests there is a floor here.

my view D is that £8m does not go that far in the great scheme of historical EVE marketing.
However, CC would have to be able to put up an absolute stonker of a forecast to justify a placing to get it away successfully.

Wow, that has got me thinking now, and I thought it was tricky call already!

That's interesting Firex. I had not considered that. hmm

If it can hold above 241 for a bit then a pattern will have formed incorporating the RSI, suggesting the drop is over with a further move to around 148-150p

That's kind of you to post that Pigster.

We will have to wait and see where it closes and and assess from there.

I think Trek, the interview did what it was designed to and that was give a wider audience an appreciation of what AVCT are and about and I think it did it very successfully.

The criticism is that this board by and large gets completely carried away and talked about the interview to coincide with RNS breaking news, to announce the test, BAMS or a new licensing deal, you name it.

What I took away is that this advertised a company with great long term potential that should transfer over into a much higher SP. However that timeline stretches over several years, not months.

Matt, This what I posted on the thread dated the 11th march
"So to conclude, the SP has to have a day where it closes below where it opened (a down day) to stop it looking as overbought as it is and it is odds on to be any day now. As I say the tricky bit is it could (just for the sake of argument) spike and close at 270p today and have the down day tomorrow and close at 255p, ie higher than it is now!

Having said all of that, I think most likely today we will see the fall and maybe see a retrace to 235p ish However I, like just about everyone else here recognises that it is all seeming to come together now and I would not trade this, as this risk reward does not seem worth it."

So, I know you don't agree with charting and that's fine, each to their own, but I outlined a couple of scenario's and said the one I thought was most likely, albeit a difficult call. As it turned out I was one day out on further gains before the retrace.

As for the 2 weeks timeline. Really? we will see. (I honestly hope you are right and I am wrong as that will boost the SP dramatically) Two weeks to CE then CV then on on sale? (Plus its "around end of quarter"

BAMS: now only 1 hospital looking at it?

AS's track record is poor on meeting his own timelines.

pedro, it was 200p 2 weeks ago now its 250p: 25% gain in 2 weeks is good but not (in my book) "massive"

But that's ok the SP had to take a breather and it looks as though today will be the day.

Slinky I don't care what you think. You are so narrow minded that it is laughable. You have come to a conclusion on my motives based on false assumptions and your mind so closed that you will never change, so just filter me. Please.

I'm not out slinky, not that it matters but this board has to be a bit more than a blinkered PR exercise for AVCT.

What came across to me is that all the tie ups are years away from fruition. Obviously the up front payments keep the doors open, and that's fine but personally I thought the next 12-24 months would see the explosive growth. Now I think its going to be a bit longer, that's all.

I think the most I got out of it is that to continue to expect deadlines to be missed. This is not a criticism per se, but AS mentioned, on various strands of the business, that it was a long term process, there are areas beyond AVCT's control and that CE, takes a long time due to any drug having human interaction.

Just about all resources are going into the LFT development. (I will genuinely be surprised if we hear anything this month now). The knock on effect seems to be more or less halting BAMS development, so again, it seems that any BAMS announcement is still weeks away.

For me , this confirms that any timeline AS gives should be to a large extent be ignored. (And I get that, given the industry product time cycle). What I don't quite get is why he then keeps giving pretty specific time frames?

Neut, my thinking about a 300p -350p one off special divi next year was on the proviso the covid tests (which for round figures I assume )generates a £1b in profit.

The company withholds £250m to invest in the company (and think about it, how much does it need in 12 months time , it will have other revenue streams in licensing and further one off payments and already has £50m by then).

On the one hand we can't expect this company to be worth Billions unless it is making billions, and that's a lot of spare cash. And we do prattle on endlessly about how much money this company can make. So one must lead to the other.

So I am not advocating giving it all to shareholders, but guess what, it is shares holders money so the principle is hardly ridiculous.

What is the point of the SP growing to tens or more of £'s if we only get all that profit back when we sell, while at the same time it has £10b in the bank?

If this company is going to be half as big as we think then that generates a HUGE amount of profit/cash. It does not all need to be ploughed back in, otherwise whats the point of making it? Of course its a balance, but as a one off special? Why not?

Tim,
This is what I actually said: "If it bounds upwards from this very minor retrace, then that confirms sentiment is very strong indeed, but as I say, in the absence of any news, there is no particular reason to buy tomorrow (imo). I still think 235p ish would be a natural and obvious place for the SP to take a breather down to and then kick on upwards from there."

So I gave 2 scenarios. A further fall was (I thought) most likely.

As it went up from the minor retrace it shows how strong sentiment is running on this stock. (By the way if you are actually interested in charting, you have to divorce yourself from the knowledge you have of the company itself and that's important because the SP and the company are distant relatives who occasionally meet up every so often, promise to stay in touch and then don't.)

The weekly, 15 minute interval chart is keeping the stock in neutral territory allowing for it to rise and fall without giving much of an indication as to what is immediately next.

The closing day chart is back into over bought territory suggesting a fall will take place pretty much identically to the 11th march postings I made. And as we know it fell about 6p before jumping another 20p to where we are, give or take, now.

A new support is forming around 270p so presently if a retrace were to happen now then that is its likely place to pause.

Always remember chartists can't predict the future, they just try to see what's most likely. If the "less likely" option occurs, then they recalibrate from there.

(What I find refreshing about that, is that there is no (or should not be), any emotional attachment to a previous "call". its never about being right or wrong)

is that a rhetorical question Tim?

a close above 6.4p would be positive. Fingers crossed

I imagine there will be a spike on ISA day as people buy this one ? (I'll be one of them that's for sure)

Looking at the SP movement, short of a leak, it looks as though I share the overall market sentiment and that's its hard to call.

The upside however would look to be substantial if there is a much better than expected growth forecast. However as D has kindly re-posted, there is a lot of detail in the Jan update for 2021 so again, as long as there are no upsets, the downside looks limited.

I have no idea where this will go on the day (and nor have the charts!) but I guess, if I had to make a call I would say, not much will happen SP wise as I don't think there will be bad news and the good news is already priced in? ...GLA

I would expect a special Dividend somewhere between 300p and 350p per share next year. Testing will be relatively short lived but could generate a £1b plus profit if it goes global as the potential suggests.

Keep back £250m to keep running the business and then release £750m back to the shareholders as one off special. (By next year we should have a more reliable income stream with BAMS and maybe the beginning of AVA600 plus other licensing models generating cash.

This looks to have the potential to be a huge cash generating company that won't know what to do with all its money.

Shrumper