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Chartwise we might have a go at 281p later today

(I know its boring but after this morning I think "boring" is a relative term)

Momoni.

The company has to be valued by over half as much again to be at 10p

Right now, the company has said it expects to trade sideways this year and at the same time spend some of its cash reserve in developing the French market. That has not spooked the market, but I think it has put EVE on the back burner, so I can't see much reason in the short term (at least the next 3 months) why in lieu of no further news, the SP will rise. In fact (imo) its likely to fall a bit as investors get bored and maybe go elsewhere. In any event I don't see any particular reason why this should go up.

On the other hand if a rumour of a buy out gets hold then maybe yes, 10p could happen.

I posted before the results that I though the best scenario for EVE was to post a profit and then get bought out and now more than ever, I think that is not only the likeliest outcome but the only positive outcome. I think it is too long a hard path to tread, to try and build this company up much more than where it is now. France would have to come on stream very quickly and at some pace to transform EVE and as it is, the EVE board are looking 12-18 months ahead and are not saying that.

I don't like to look forward more than 12 months at most as it all gets a bit too woolly for me but this is just my opinion and I don't know any more than anybody else. DYOR and GLA

It depends Momoni, on what the buyer is prepared to pay. If for some reason EVE could not generate a profit and had spent £4m of the cash reserves developing the brand in France say, then maybe it would be below the current SP? I don't think that likely by the wa, but just to illustrate that nothing is ever nailed on. Its all about risk and how the individual manages it.

is what she said D? , if so then (imo) that's the route out. I would interpret that as EVE is for sale and came hell or high water EVE will show a profit in 2022

ok Matt and I agree its progress, and its not to have the last word, but when a stock falls and goes up a bit (dead cat bounce) it does not mean it won't fall further and in fact is more likely to. So, when the SP came off the bottom it did fall again to a lower point (248p was the first low than a rally then fell to about 236p) and I wanted confirmation that the drop was most likely finished at 236p. I needed confirmation that a price above 241 would give me. When it hit that I bought and due to the spread I paid 243p.

I sacrificed a few p of profit against a greater chance of making the correct call based on TA

But thats ok Mikey, because that's your plan. You are taking a longer term view to try to maximise your profit.

I typically will try and take smaller profits on a shorter time frame.

There is potential in most stocks. AVCT seems to have more than most but it easy to fall in love with a stock and for that emotion to cloud rational judgement.

Time lines have lengthened from last summer. back then we had many covid strings to our bow. Waste water detection, Bams to name a couple, apart from the Saliva LFT. Still waiting for those 3 products 9 months later. Its not a gripe merely an example of how "potential" does not always do what we expect in the timeframe we envisaged.

Livedata, I just use the RSI with the daily close price chart. (I only did the intraday forecast for a bit of fun responding to mikey).

There are patterns the RSI make that work well in conjunction with the price action which help confirm the likely direction of travel.
And also I don't trade this share because like most here, I think potential is enormous and just look for dips based on TA, to increase my holding like yesterday for instance at 243p.

This stock is too illiquid and for the most part the spread is too large to trade short term.

That's right Mikey but so what? You waited for a buy in price that never came. So you wait for the dust to settle and see where the next entry level is likely to be, (assuming you still want to buy in to the company).

Right now the day chart says (to me) we are likely to go to 270p before falling back to around 264p. (it has been trying to get above 256p all morning and has now done so.)

Not really. If any news propels the SP, in any direction, it will settle at a new level, and new patterns on the chart will emerge or, in your language "Sentiment and anticipation" will alter.

I'm not and never have claimed that TA will forecast out of the blue news. but given RNS's are (apart from a couple of times a year for updates), fairly rare things in the main, means there is a lot of other time to decide when to buy and sell.

Matt, all leg pulling aside, do you realise that "Sentiment and anticipation wins over charts every time. Simple as that."
is all a chart is? Its just a graphical representation of buys and sells over a period of time, which indicates sentiment and anticipation of what is likely to come next?

Ben, FWIW the best book I found on TA was "The Psychology of Technical Analysis" by Tony Plumber.
Explains the rationale behind crowd behaviour and how it directly relates into TA on stocks etc. (I have over the years, got a small library of them but that's the one I go back to if I need to double check my methodology.)

Matt, the order book is similar to a chart...….. you are using the buys and sells of the masses to influence what you think is likely to happen. (It seems you have not so much turned to the dark side as been there all along!)

Matt, you use level 2 to make a judgement don't you?

Well CO, that's absolutely fine. You have a plan. The only question I would ask is: how long is long term? and what price are you expecting it to be by then?

D! you know me so well! (I sold what was a very small bet about an hour before the close yesterday. I had bought in a week ago on the hope that the SP would nudge up to 7p or even more over those days, and when it didn't right up until most of yesterday I decided, as AVCT generated, co-incidently a buy signal, not to wait until this morning, and sold EVE and bought a few more AVCT.

The results I think were perfectly in line with what CC has already previously stated and I will keep an eye out for an opportunity to get back in as and when.

All the best as always,

Morning Ben,
I keep it pretty simple nowadays and just use the HL charts as that's the platform I trade on. I find the end of day closing price the most reliable long(er) term indicator, so a quick look at the year chart and then the 3 month chart with the RSI indicator over laid to see what's most likely to happen next.

(The weekly chart breaks down into 15 minute intervals, which can be an added bit of info into the mix, but because of the time frames it will throw up contradictory data to the previous charts, so I look at it to get a "feel" for what's going on very short term. ( I can't explain what "feel" is in more rational terms without writing a book on it!)

There are a million indicators you can use and traders find ones that they feel comfortable with. Personally the RSI is all I need and I have found it to be generally very reliable.

The thing about charting, if you do it right it encourages you to take the emotion out of the decision making. Yesterdays fall to 235p is a case in point.

Just because I "saw" it, never meant it was going to go there. It, to me, just seemed a good probability. My plan might have been to buy at 235p. And if it had not fallen to that level I would not have bought it and potentially missed the opportunity as it fell to maybe only, 250p and then soared away. But, who cares? plenty more shares to look at and trade.

Emotion is THE KILLER in Pi's buying and selling shares. Anything that helps remove that from the decision making process will pay the individual back make many times over!

Whatever charts and indicators you use, you must have a plan. What price to buy at, what (2) prices to sell at, (1, where you expect it to go to and the other where to get out if you are wrong) and some sort of time frame. And the plan should be proven to work so you have the confidence to stick to it.

Unfortunately its still more jam tomorrow (which to be frank can't actually be a surprise to anyone based on what has been reported over the last 6 months or so.)

Its still a work in progress. The good news is that no further funding is predicted. The bad news is that CC felt that as the years goes on it will be a challenge to improve YoY sales. Which at this early stage suggest any profits (excluding France investment), will be small if at all.

(Gen, did you read the 16% increase in new year sales as poor? I ask because you thought it might be around 100%?)

The potential is still there but I think it all hinges now on France. The business model is still struggling in the UK as best as I can see, just can't seem to quite tip it into profit.

Clearly it is a difficult business to make money from. Certainly CC and the team are working hard and doing all they can to diversify. but as I mentioned before, all the areas they could realistically go into are already well developed and highly competitive.

As is the case with EVE, we now have to wait until the next update to see if progress is being made. The presentation this afternoon should set the tone though. Fingers crossed

well, we are around the 250p support mark which seemed a natural place for it to test. Went through it easily last night but has come back to see what the sentiment is.

well its perking up now!

GLA

well, its come back a couple of times to test around 241p so I have re-jigged the last bits and bobs I have to add a few more at 243p