Member Info for wyndrum

No need to worry about me gen.

well, to generate £1m cash profit in 2 months says EVE are on course to make £6m in the current year. And you think that's conservative?

Not sure exactly I know where you are getting figures from gen? £8m not 8.2m and why is there now £9m in the bank?.

Also this from CC in the last TU in Jan

"..... Expansion will be managed in a controlled and disciplined manner, with the initial focus for investment on the Company's existing French market. Having already completed the restructuring of the French business and its cost structures, the Company is now ready to invest in both its B2C and retail sales channels, adopting many of the same strategies that have been deployed successfully to scale the UK business, including its first new TV campaign in three years. The investment required to scale the French business will come from the Company's existing cash resources. "

So, the cash balance of £8m is going to be used to develop the French market . It sounds to me therefore its not going to come out of current cash generation, which further suggests to me, that if EVE is running at a profit, its a small one.

I don't know how the market will react but its only been 2 months since Jan and unless there is a major surprise then, based on what she has already told the market, doesn't look like a lot of upward momentum will be generated?
This is a difficult call I think, to decide where the SP will go on results day. GLA

"The only way is up."

How come they are down today then? or is today the absolute low?

I hope you are right res, and if you are , then you would expect the SP to rise by the end of today or the week?

Sang, I was having a conversation with res and Phantom responding to their posts. Is that ok with you?

res, how do you see it as a De-risk? (i'm not saying this is "terrible" news, but questions have been asked and if they don't like the answers, the application fails or gets delayed further. How is that de-risked the investment from where it was yesterday?

Phantom, don't get personal and make silly assumptions on my particular holding. I don't work stops and I am not out, so I don't need to get back in.

AGL are looking at the second half of this year and they are already priming investors it will be a slow response from the FDA to the reply and the second half runs from July to December. I reckon its reasonable to suggest the earliest we will here anything back assuming there are no further questions? from Sept onwards. Hence my 6-9 months expectation of nothing happening.
Short of any other news the SP I imagine will drift for at least 3 months or so.

Hi res, don't quite follow the logic, yes short term "traders" will exit pushing the SP down (who wants that?) and then will pile back in in a few months and the SP will rise again, so...whats the diff? Not sure its "good" for the SP to see it fall.

Ok if people want to top up I spose, but this has raised a level of uncertainty and now at least what? 6-9months before any movement from the FDA.

AGL have gone to great pains to say its expected and nothing to worry about but timelines have really gone back quite a bit.

Nothing is ever nailed on.

fair enough, (just my understanding) of a "while" is more than a few days

what chart are you looking at Good Looking? its was 130p only a month ago, 150p 2 weeks ago and 180p last week.

Whats special about today particularly?

Many thanks

I am absolutely genuinely interested EGTP, because its exactly as a business your action plan going forward, is of keen interest to me.
If a customer has proved positive a few days before arrival, will you refund their money? (or is this something a holiday insurance would cover, or you would expect to cover?)

EGTP, if the govt allows your business to open subject to vaccine passport, will you insist on your customers paying for a test as well, or would you foot the bill of them having a test, and if they had a test 3 days before arriving and were tested positive would you refund their money?

EGTP, you are thinking from the point of view of society while govt's only care about their respective health systems.
All that matters is that the health systems are not over run. Peoples well being and any other consideration is completely secondary.
If you have had the vaccine the chance of hospitalisation are now remarkably low. And that's the ball game.

User, I can't affect the SP, but what I have learnt is that timing is everything in maximising profits.
(I don't see glass's half full or half empty. I see them half liquid, half air. :0) Truly)

Right now I don't see much more that 20-30% rise ( from here ) in the next couple of months at best. (I could be completely wrong, this is just my expectation). 9-10p? If I get in at 5.5p then its nearly doubled and that will get my attention. Now, 5.5p may never come but that's ok, there are plenty of other fish in the sea to try and catch. But I don't see a compelling risk reward today on where the SP is, and where I think it might go in the next few weeks/months.

Out at the moment User, but I would probably wait now for the results (unless it went sub 6p to buy which with all the furore seems unlikely.)
Results, good though they have been, have a history of being slightly underwhelming and that I think has been the story of the last half of last year. Great progress but somehow never quite translated over the last 6 months , which bearing in mind the 2 profit updates was disappointing. Not sure anything earth shattering will come from this set either given its only 2 months since the last one.
My expectation is CC will again highlight the uncertainty of forward sales. She I think has a track record now of being cautious (which is admirable in this climate), but is not great for forward sentiment. I think she believes in the figures doing the talking (and fwiw, I agree)

On the other hand (and this is where I see the potential growth driver), the French market might get a bit more air time and although I won't expect that in the current figures, maybe a greater emphasis on that will help the SP in the presentation?

All in all, I think the explosive SP growth has taken place from 1p (or below) to 7p now, which in 12 months is just about as good as it gets! The next leg up I think is longer term, maybe double or treble from here over the next 24 months, which as I say is still a very good return indeed, but it is hard to look to far forward right now.

As we come out of the pandemic, there will be a lot of demands now on that spare cash from individuals, and "boring" old Mattresses might not be quite the flavour they were?

Who knows? She might pull a rabbit out of the hat, which is why this can be such a fun game.
I think the SP based on a steady as she goes set of results underpins the SP between 5.5p-7p which means the downside from here (assuming no bad news) is reasonably limited. As always, just my 2cents GL

I've already been in and out twice Genius (what a misnomer!) since jan for your info

Don't worry Mowz, they are there I'm sure. just waiting for 203p to go.....(or not)

Maybe, Tiger its because of the questions I posed yesterday that ellicited zero response :

"Am I missing something but how much is Eve earning out of this tie up?
Do we know what projected annual sales are?
Are we saying this tie up is worth as much or even more as what Eve does (ie make and sell mattresses)
The way the SP is reacting is that this is transformational. is it?"

Nothing much has changed since the Jan update, except for a tie up that we have no idea what impact it might make to the bottom line. This has drawn in crazy rampers here that are not applying any metrics to the business and making assumptions that it will make £4-5m this year. How many extra mattress will it take to make this "profit". If breakeven is £24m turnover then I would say turn over would have to double to generate that sort of profit.
Is that realistic in this economic climate? Has EVE got a USP? I laud the diversification but that is a necessity given the competitiveness of the mattress market.

This is a tough environment in uncertain economic conditions with higher taxes to come and higher interest rates with higher unemployment kicking in. Its not ideal for any retail company

Don't get me wrong, I think EVE has good prospects but it is on the cusp. My "feeling is that it is in fact, sales wise, going a bit too slow for CC's liking and I think EVE will start to turn on the taps of greater advertising spending which will mean a higher breakeven figure.

Maybe the company will be transformed by licensing cannabis oil but right now there is not much info other than hype to suggest it will.

LTBH won't be put off by anything I have said because we already know all of it and an 8-10p SP in the next 6-12 months from where it was at the start of this year is a very healthy return and over 24 months is simply fantastic!

And just for nothing, the business update said Bams info to be released in the next 2-3 weeks which was on the 24th Feb so only 1-2 weeks now before further updates?