Member Info for wyndrum

Are we part of Moonshot or (still) under a NDA? Its just that the update has been interpreted by most here as a bit of a falling out with the govt. Was I the only one surprised when the NHS worker has been given 3 months, 3 months mind, of home tests? That takes us to June.
And why are we still trying to divine a RNS? Its like the Da Vinci code. And it shouldn't be. The language could (if it wanted ) be much less ambiguous.

fingers crossed

careful, that's a lot of eggs you are putting in the pudding....

No actually PL, the thread died out after one response. Larsh posted for no reason (after several hours of no posts on the thread), which could have ignited it again. So I have to ask, why do posters, who don't want to engage with the post, or the poster, post a reply telling everyone to ignore it. Why didn't PL take his own advice?
(This thing he has of having the last word is seriously weird...)
Is it you all just want to see recs to get some sort of personal validation? is it that small minded?
Anyway, please don't anyone respond.

Ginge, what if its just you and the other members of the party are ok? you stay at home while the family go abroad? or you miss the concert but your partner goes in alone?

Lets assume its September, the UK is back to "normal" the AVCT test is out there and everyone has had their vacs.

I bought 2 tickets to see some band at £100 each at the O2 for December. I go to the O2 to see the concert and they ask me for a test (or I did the test at home 48 hours previously) and now I have picked up Covid? How do I get my money back? who pays? Same for holidays, same for any event where you have to pay up front before you can go to said event.
How do we think it will work?

I got pulled in, in june thinking that the SP would be around £5 by xmas and treated this as a initial covid play but with other strands that would also be reporting to add extra momentum, the delay at first was slight, next week, then next month, then next quarter. Then it looked like it would deffo be by Q1, now its Q2 and the roll out and efficacy of the vaccines are much faster and better than expected from only a matter of weeks ago. so its a rapidly changing situation.
So I have got to a point having waited this long I might as well see it through. (The recent non-covid RNS's are going to keep me in AVCT now for at least 24 months assuming no failure in trials/results)
I try to ask awkward questions, (often devil's advocate) so that the positive answers will convince me that the "awkward question" has been suitably dealt with.
I blow hot and cold because just about very deadline is missed, so I get enthused about a deadline at last about to be fulfilled, only for it to be put back.
Should have had lots of news in Q4, but, ok, I thought, give it a couple of weeks into Jan.
The latest one is the TU. Should have been Jan 23rd (give or take), so as Jan went on, that date became nearer so I hung on for that. Then it gets put back to Feb, which could mean any day (maybe the 1st week of feb!) so, I hang on further still. Then its all going to fall in place with BJ's 22nd announcement. Except it doesn't. In between we have extraordinary snippets here and there. "There are no more dots left to join!" was one post of many that I thought brilliant! this is it!
Now it turns out there is some suspicion that our test failed, except did it? Who knows?
I keep saying I think testing will be necessary, I just have not got a feel any more on what sort of scale both in numbers of tests and time. Testing was/is meant to open the economy, but its looking more likely the vaccines will do that. My idea of mass testing is 10m per month at a minimum. Is that unrealistically high or unrealistically low? We bandy about £1 profit per test, but we don't talk about if its say 50p, and how many test per month to play around with potential valuations. This board is generally I think very good. there are some great posters here, intelligent, witty, informed and insightful, but we don't talk much, if ever, about the potential downside and that is an important part of assessing risk/reward in any stock.
So yes I blow hot and cold but don't blame me, I am just reacting to AVCT's info flow.
(I know, far too long... ... but you asked)

The scenario I see is that for overseas travel then you will need to be vaccinated, so if Jonny has got it, it won't make any difference to anybody else because they are all vaccinated. I'm not "against" airport testing, I just don't see how they would work effectively. You book up typically months in advance and pay your final balance weeks before you go so what happens if you fail attest at the airport? (it could be your honeymoon!)
The devil as always is in the detail.
I get airport testing if there is no vaccine available but we are moving on rapidly from that previous scenario.

not really no, Little Jonny will be statistically fine and almost certainly won't even display symptoms let alone be ill with it.

"Parents should be "reassured" Covid-19 has not caused the deaths of any otherwise healthy schoolchildren in the UK, researchers say.
Children's risk of needing hospital treatment for coronavirus is "tiny" and critical care "even tinier", they say.
However, black children, those who are obese and very young babies have a slightly higher risk."

I'm not sure Dan, I think it will be an insurance requirement rather than an airlport test. Yes, you can lie and say you have been vaccinated if you subsequently get covid then you invalidate your insurance and may be liable if others get ill. (bit like having no car ins). At the same time I am sure there will be an app to display that you have been vaccinated that you may/will have to display at passport control. I just don't think there can be a system where you as a family are about to go on holiday and at the airport little Jonny gets tested and has got it. What then?

I'm sorry, i' ve got too much time on my hands but....when you say "ask yourself this..... would we be down this far (sub 10p) if we never had the Woodford saga?"
Er yes? Its been along time since then. The market has had ample time to realise a stock was as undervalued as you imply.
You seem to forget the company was going bust. It had a RI simply to buy itself time to stay in business. Even now with the latest figures to hand, the company is (still) not making money (I accept that may change in the next update).
Probably Covid and the push to online buying, saved EVE from going under. It (or was) that tenuous. What if my thoughts are right that there my be a temporary move away from online buying as people get out of lockdown. even if only last the summer months until the weather closes in again, it might dent sales a bit? £25m turnover and that seems to breakeven. That's some turnover to breakeven don't you think? There have been 2 sets of figures and 2 increased profit announcements and the SP is where it is. That's not due to Woodford or the market not understanding whats going on.
Its a long hard road and don't take my word for it, listen to CC.
For all those taking a long term view right now I think it will be a profitable wait, but there will have to be some "surprises" in the figures to move this forward quickly on the scale lots here have been talking about. (again just my 2cents)

Genius, do you think turnover will double this year? (I don't by the way). My guess is there will be a temporary shift away from on-line when the shops open as people get out about again and almost kick back against on line a bit. (but that won't last for long). I'm also not convinced about the "brand" thing. I get why CC is trying to develop that theme but at the end of the day, to develop a desirable Brand it has to be well, desirable.. . This is a mattress (boring), which you can't see or show off to friends and neighbours and it is expensive. What's its USP? its comfortable? what else?
Now, given where the company has been and where it is now I still think the SP has got gains left in it (and I have always thought that), I only sold because I think I can make the same gains quicker elsewhere, so I am not down on EVE at all. But the last update followed a pattern of slow but sure and I was hoping for more of a breakthrough. That may still happen of course in the next update forecast and I think the French market will be the driver if such an uplift in sales takes place but that may be more 12 months away?
Finally I think being online in terms of cost savings can be overrated. Online companies might not get screwed for the overheads of bricks & Mortar but the cost of getting customers to your website is very expensive these days and not to be under estimated. This is in fact a difficult business to make money in and CC and the team, have done very well in getting this far already. GLA

GL, so the conclusion would be, buyers push the SP down.

Its not just Avacta that is down, so are just about all the Covid testing related stocks. So the various theory's put forward this morning regarding AVCT's fall, seem to me, to be over looking the most obvious reason.

I think the TU is important for exactly what Croq says but also it has been heavily trailed by AVCT that there will be updates on clinical data as well. My understanding is the TU is only being held up for the inclusion of new, non-TU info.
Given we have already had the S/S data and further milestones seem to be at least a month away, it must logically be something else that is holding up the release. I guess we are all assuming it will be confirmation of AVCT test being the official Govt test?
Unless Bams is about to make a welcome return?

claire, are you talking about £50m turnover or £50m profit?

We have had a "spirited" discussion about this in the past and I am not suggesting we go there again. (relax and breath,...)
But it also occurred to me given the latest newsflow, is what do posters here consider mass testing to mean from an Avacta supply POV? Is it 1m per week, 10m per week, more? (it could be my version of mass testing is not the same as the consensus here and in fact we were always closer to the same conclusions.)

Ha! I don't keep a record D but thanks for noticing. (you're a Top Man!) Blimey what a waste of time these boards are in the main though. Its fun to kick things around a bit but God they can become addictive and I post far more than I mean to. Perhaps a belated new years resolution will be to cut down if not stop all together.

here's the glass half empty version: (just for balance because its got very rampy, very quickly here).
Company is not actually "doing very well" it's turning over £25m and is only at breakeven (which seems crazy to me)
CC has repeatedly stated that's its a slow turn around so to expect dramatic leap forwards, whilst it may happen and surprise everyone, would be in contradiction to what she has said on more than one occasion.
The market has had plenty of time to consider EVE's value and although it has had a tremendous 12 months (I think that gets overlooked when deciding how high the SP "should be"), nevertheless it is where it is, so there is no reason to think it is currently undervalued. (remember it is valued at greater than the cash in hand so the market recognises that the company looks to be going in the right direction but wants confirmation of a profitable business model before re-rating further)
unemployment has risen, is expected to rise further, but at the same time we will come out of lockdown over the next few weeks and months and there is likely imo to be a great splurge in luxury spending as opposed to boring old mattresses. So that discretionary consumer spending has got new homes to go to. (holidays for a start!), cars, clothes (not everyone wants to buy on line.) This could slow sales growth
It looks to me also, but this is a guess, that CC has turned the taps on regards buying the business in with greater investment in other markets and getting potential customer's to EVE's online site. How much I don't know but I think there could be one last step back to go 2 forward with the results in march. How the market will react is hard to say, if that is the case
I only post this not to be a Jeramiah, but to exercise some caution and don't commit any more than you can easily afford to lose. Always remember if you can see a stock going up in multiples of its current price in a short space of time means that it is a risky bet. And the greater your expectation of gain increases the risk of it not happening. Just my 2 cents, DYOR etc etc.

have you got half an hour....?

What can tell you? I added a lot at 140p another big tranche last week at 190 (after it failed to breakthrough195p , but it just "felt" as though it was going to pretty soon), and more when I posted just now at 199.8p.
We have a new all time high of 219p so that's the new "target" but as it was a spike I don't think anyone will it take it that seriously right now.