Member Info for wyndrum

Given the huge amount of daily posts (this week end being a corker) all we have ended up with is confusion and uncertainty.
Meanwhile the chart saw 195p broken and waited for it to retest it to get in at around 200p.
Money supermaaaaaketttttt

Be funny if I was right though G-man! (Ha ha)
And before you all of off on one its just a joke, I don't mean it.... lighten up everyone, tomorrow is likely to be the best day in AVCT history re its SP

Larsh, Assume you are right.
How does the world function going forward? Do we all have to test daily? How do you "ease" lockdown? And what does that mean? what level of infection do you think is acceptable? Does infection actually matter or is it the severity of the illness that now becomes paramount?
Do you think vaccines will improve over the coming months? do you think treatment will improve over the coming months?
And just for nothing we absolutely know how risky smoking is for your health and we don't even ban that. I think you over estimate the world's concern for its population.

Wondergoals, this is an investment BB, and I am discussing an income stream. Many here think that this news alone is worth many multiples of the current SP based on mass testing being needed virtually forever.
I am saying I think it will relatively short lived.
If you want to ignore this thread and also any argument that questions the most optimistic valuation then do so by all means.

DG, there were as best as I can find out 16.3m NHS admissions in 2016/2017 or 3.13m per week. So assuming you are correct I would not translate that figure to represent "mass testing"
I don't know about doctor's surgeries. But based on present best practise I see annual jabs for covid for the over 60's going forward, with maybe tests if you go into hospital but only likely if you present symptoms, not automatically.

Larsh I am neither a quivering wreck nor an attention seeker. (plenty here post more than me). I will keep saying this as long as my argument is confused with my character.
You say Mass Testing will be here for the foreseable. Ok I am saying 12-18 months. What's your timeline guess?
That's the crux of it. Its not that covid will exist, but how much impact it has on the population (generally) and the economy? Something like 8000-20000 succumb to flu annually. (Given that's over the winter months, so based on 20 weeks that translates to 400 to a 1000 deaths per week approx. You get your annual jab you, you don't get a test.
So we open the economy fully on Sept 1st assuming everyone is vaccinated and its kicked in. Will there be a rise infections, maybe, (vaccination is also showing signs of resisting transmission,), but lets assume there is, but what if there are few hospitalisations and more importantly deaths? Its not whether covid will exist or not, its how harmful it is.

PAhoo, that's fine, and I am aware that I have posted this before but cut me some slack: When there are 500 plus posts a day, its easy for something said 30 minutes ago to get lost for ever let alone weeks ago and I thought, based on the wild enthusiasm of so many posts over the last 48 hours that it was worth airing the discussion again, because the 2 previous attempts got pretty much shot down with abuse rather than trying to see both sides and what might be the most likely outcome.
And I am not talking long term on AVCT, we all know about the amazing potential of the cancer side of the business, All I am saying is, is mass testing going to be with us for years and years on a scale that many here seem to assume?
Remember this is an investment BB. Do you want if/when the SP spikes to 400p tomorrow for lots here to top up and then despair if it fell back to 200p?
Yes, do your research and take your chance. Perfectly right and fair. All we are doing are discussing how much is this worth to AVCT? Right now we don't know the costs, profits or volume. So lets until we know this, exercise some caution and discussion.

Orange, thank you at least for a thoughtful response.
Lets assume you are right and mass testing has to stay. How long, presumably forever? So every visit to a public place has to be preceded by a daily test for ever individual (presumably incl. children). (you can't wait for symptoms to display because you could be asymptomatic.
I never said vaccines last forever, indeed I said we might need them annually due to mutations, but that would maybe be just the over 50's or over 60's.
I only see mass testing longer than 18 months if a policy of eradication of covid, but I don't think that's likely or doable.
Is that where you are coming from? Zero covid? If not, then what is your criteria for acceptable covid within society?
The other thing of course is: If AVCT's test gets taken up and is as accurate and sensitive as we are foretold (no argument there), then its going to break rates of transmission pretty quickly isn't it?
If AVCT Mass testing starts, as date on the 1st April, and is free and easy to use and widely used (why wouldn't it be), then I would have thought within 2 months, it would have a dramatic affect on the stats, wouldn't it? (otherwise again, what's the point?)

Matt, Its not a question of whether I agree with it or not, all I am saying is that I expect mass testing to be relatively short lived. Not that it won't take place and not that it's not necessary, but maybe only 12-18 months worth.
As for borders staying shut, that's more interesting: There is plenty of tourism in what is deemed 3rd world countries. Do those indigenous populations have vaccines for the dieses in their own country?
But as a prerequisite for foreigners to visit they have to show that they have had the various jabs. Presumably this will apply to covid going forward?
There are plenty of pretty nasty virus's around the world already but we don't test for them before traveling there now, so why would we now with this one? But maybe we will, I don't know, but it would be a change from the way we have done things previously and I don't see yet that this will ultimately be the case.

JD, If US citizens can't afford the jab and the US govt does not make it free (which I think they will), then they won't be able to afford tests either.
As for people for whatever reason who don't take the vaccine, presumably they will get it covid and it then becomes a moot point. (They have effectively immunised themselves but at a higher risk to their own health.)
I think the vaccine needs to be effective for 12 months to allow booster jabs annually. I don't think that's stretch based on historically how long vaccines last.
Going forward, I agree this was a wake up call. If this virus had been particularly deadly then it would have been catastrophic globally. So now more of the world will have procedures in place to combat this type of thing rather than just Asia.
Long term it puts AVCT in a great place, but we knew long term AVCT was in a great place prior to covid.

But Larsh, that's the point, Vaccines save lives (and reduce severity of symptoms). So what "risk" are you referring to? And following your logic, If business was so paranoid about a covid-free workforce then they would have to test daily forever. Do you really think that likely or feasible?
Tim, we don't know how long the vaccines last yet? Do you not think in the next 12 months they will improve on the efficacy? (already after a few weeks they think that the second dose improves efficacy if that second dose is a different vaccine from the fist jab.)
ZZ, already they is a dramatic reduction in hospitalisations and infections. The assumption, (not fact), is that this will mutate to invalidate the vaccines too quickly for us to live with. I'm trying to work out where we are based on what we know, not inventing scenario's to fit our investment decision.

At the considerable risk of being flamed on this but given the euphoria of many and talk of topping up as asap on this board, if everyone is going to be vaccinated by the end of July (add 3 weeks for it to kick in, so end of August), why will MASS testing be needed beyond then?
Why do you test 50,000 people going to a football match if they have all been vaccinated? What's the point of being vaccinated if you have to have a test to see if you have it or not, and dependent on the result you can or can't go out?
The old and infirm have been hardest hit by this virus, typically they do not go to clubs, bars and venues. The young (under 60's) not only are they unlikely to have a bad reaction to this virus as a group from the outset, but now they are vaccinated.
The counter argument might be about mutations that make the current vaccines irrelevant , but that is apparently unlikely, they will still likely offer some resistance and within a few months tweaks will be made. But that ASSUMES, the mutation will counteract the current vaccine.
And our test is available when exactly, because now, every week counts?
If the assumption is we are going to "live" with covid and therefore not eradicate it, then people will catch it annually like any other virus. The vaccine is designed to counteract the severity of the symptoms, so you can have it but carry on with life normally, just like flu, etc. Therefore it no longer becomes an issue of whether an individual catches it or not. So mass testing ceases to be necessary in this scenario.
Right now the UK is ahead globally with vaccinations, but we are already going to donate our surplus to poorer countries, the US has already said it will donate $3/4b towards the same goal, as will the Gates foundation, and I am sure the EU, and I am sure there will be appeals made to the general public as well.
Right now our test has potential global appeal, while the world plays vaccine catch up, with the UK probably being the smallest market due to the fast roll out , but nothing has changed my original thought that MASS testing will be relatively short lived. (12-18 months) Again I have always said I expect AVCT to make 10's of £m from this, maybe more, I don't know, but we don't know the price or the profit margin so it could more but I don't see the extrapolation that many here make. Hopefully even if it is short lived but on such a scale that it still justifies a huge increase in the SP, but there is still in my mind a lot of unknowns here to not get so carried away. (And I am not a glass half empty or full, I just see a glass with 50% liquid and 50% air.)
(And yes, I thought it odd/disappointing no mention of testing from Matt Handjob, but did say end of July for everyone to be vaccinated.)

More likely the MM's are as board as we are looking at the SP today...….

Based on what Wiggly? What can you see ?

I like your thinking Wiggly. Blimey, you wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend now! (ha!, but i'm not kidding)

well, certainly the sooner the better for share holders that's for sure!

Ben, that's certainly a plausible time line but do you think AVCT will be named specifically in your scenario of leaks and press briefings in front of Monday evening? (I ask only because if AVCT are not mentioned directly then we are where we are now. In other words the market knows it's probably AVCT and is just waiting for confirmation and until it really is nailed on, then the market/ SP for AVCT will be, pretty much where it is now?

the spread has moved to 6p (78p/84p) (from 78p/80p), so if the selling price starts to move closer to 84p I would suggest there is buying pressure starting to happen

Tim, What do you think is going to happen over the weekend? Boris will only confirm what the market already knows re: his enthusiasm for testing via a new LFT (odds on Avacta), and that takes place Monday evening.
Are you expecting the TU or announcement from AVCT in front of that?
I am guessing it will be Tuesday morning at 7:00am that we will hear something from AVCT and hopefully it will be confirmation "its us" coupled with a TU and maybe just maybe a BAMS update too.
But I don't see a FOMO driver for today.

TA , typically and mostly, is used to Day Trade, therefore its a short term position from a few seconds to the close of the market being traded with no position held overnight.
What follows from that, is that the gains expected are small, a percent or two. To make this worthwhile 2 things normally occur, One the size of the bet is usually leveraged and the second thing is that many trades a day may take place to increase overall profitability.
On that basis, chart patterns of all sorts can be relevant and acted upon, but intra day patterns soon break down and new are formed making buying decisions short lived. Which is fine but if you are looking to hold a stock even for a few days, then a lot of the patterns (in my experience), are not reliable enough to act upon.
As a result Even though I no longer day trade I have found that TA is still very helpful in any stock I look at but it has its limitations. And finally I would not ever, ever recommend anyone day trade stocks. Indices only I think, and the bigger the better. (Even the FTSE is relatively on the small side and its direction can be manipulated by the big trading houses if they wanted to. So Bonds, T Bills and the Dow would be the obvious choices.)
So for those who think its all rubbish (fair enough), cos you can't predict RNS's, (again fair enough), well, we had one today and 195p was and still is a resistance level and as a chartist, you would not care about any of the "news", you just watch the chart and it tells all you need to know. (Its not full proof but then nothing else is either.)
So now I keep it very simple and look for obvious support and resistance levels and coupled with the RSI indicator for confirmation, It allows me to time my entry into the stock usually very accurately.
Having said all that, experienced individual's do get their own preferred buying and selling signals that they feel comfortable with so its each to his own, but I have found the simpler I keep it, (and stick to it), the more profitable my decisions have been.