Member Info for wyndrum

You are quite right PL75 you are far, far better than me even though we have never met, your insights and speculation are also far superior to mine.
(Quite funny to see that you feel your speculation is allowable speculating, whereas mine is not.)
Also very odd that you never filter me. You clearly have got an obsession about my posts, which given you despise (is that too strong?) me is odder still.
And these posts only drag on because, you, remember you, reply to them with a question, and then that gives you further openings to be rude again, with delicious line of "Your tedium is relentless...." So why do you keep these threads going?
You just seem to get off being offensive. which I guess gets us back to your inferiority complex.
Have a good day.

well, you asked a question of me and I answered it.

You feel compelled to be always personally rude and dismissive. That's some superiority complex you have developed, (I particularly like the way you try to disguise it with indifference and feigned modesty) to cover some sort of chip (or inferiority) you seem to have.

Isn't this your "hobby"? Why speculate you said? That's what every single post here is though isn't it?

I'm passing the time I guess, The bit you never get with my posts is that for the most part I try to get a conversation going just in case it leads to a bit of a eureka moment from other posters ideas that get discussed and lead on to other ideas coming out etc etc. (I accept (obviously) sometimes some of the posts are rubbish but its not through design or intent).

The TU is being held up I imagine because there is data that is not ready yet that AVCT want to include in the RNS.
I thought it was the S/S figures but with the Mologic tie up they must have that data already or at least close enough to be able to release it with the TU.
(Maybe its BAMS bit I have completely lost the plot on where and how that fits in with AVCT re: covid:, who owns the license, which bit are we waiting for, does it work, (yes it does) why isn't it been released for covid then? )
Presumably the mysterious conglomerate of companies supplying the UK govt. is the hold up, but why? The govt has publicly announced developing a sovereign supply chain. I can't really believe NDA's are holding up the TU (If it is, its the worst kept secret in the world), but having kept quiet for this long a TU would still be able to come and go with some reference to ongoing talks with Govt as per previously.
My 2 cents is that saliva may be about to make a comeback and that is the data that AS is waiting for.

I'm a novice in this type of stock: Is a 100% uplift common on FDA approval?

I think the reaction is muted SD, because while its a clear positive that a test is at last seemingly on the way, it still several weeks if not months before any revenue is generated. This is so late that it must impact on previous revenue expectation from a valuation pov. Plus, are there any costs to AVCT going with Mologic? Have there been any costs to incurred thus far trying to work testing through the UK and suddenly its all about European testing and validation. Again, if there are, then that also affects valuation. And another big unknown is, what is the profit margin to AVCT in this tie up?
From a SP perspective these questions have to be addressed otherwise its just speculative guesswork based on assumptions that we have no info on. On that basis, how do you value AVCT right now?
The TU is a very important update now. I imagine the market understands the potential and has already pencilled in that it will be a commercial test because of its accuracy, so the S/S figures (however good they are), are, imo, no longer the issue.
AS has promised a lot in terms of potential income, now the city wants to see more detail on how much and when, and less about "the potential".

Form a chart perspective Moon party that was a courageous buy (SCLP) yesterday. The move down from the recent high is (imo) more likely to continue to around 11p. But as always its just an odds game and it may turn out to be an inspired buy. GL

Comic, I am expecting that to be covered in the TU. My other "market wants" are I think in all likelihood , not going to be in there so it remains the case for a bit longer (another month or 2) that the info will be drip fed out. And again, after all this time what is another 6-8 weeks only except that that's how it has been for the last 9 months. And I think thats how the market sees it to....

This for me is always the hardest point on BB's. Shares DO go down as well as up. Its not a de-ramp, or a diabolical plan to undermine others confidence to simply say " I have cashed out with a view to getting back in at a lower price." It may work out, it may not. But nothing we post here affects the SP one way or the other, and whether Darren's call works out for him or not, does not affect anyone else either. If it does undermines other holders confidence in their decision making then the best advice I can give is, don't read BB's.

This TU will need to be quite broad I think.
This RNS seems to de-risk AVCT substantially but when you consider the SP was fluctuating from 160p to 190p when a test seemed imminent 6 months ago and now today it is frankly very muted indeed to be sub, the diabolical resistance of, 140p.
Clearly the market is still not so assured as most on this board are.
I can only surmise that the market wants, profit per test or some indication thereof, exactly when the revenue might start (we are now projecting into Q2 so it is a very long way away from where it was originally expected Q3/Q4) and some sort of idea for the amount of tests to be done per month (at least to start with). It won't be lost on everyone that AS seemed very enthused about a hybrid test, but, as ever, that is for the future. So the TU I think, for the SP to move properly forward, needs to give some revenue projections that are accurate enough and in a timescale short enough, for the market to make a re-rate based on likely income and no more guesswork or trying to divine what is actually going on.
If it doesn't and it may not be possible, then the SP may well tick up a bit more more, but given where we were back in the summer (SP wise) and where we are now with all the very positive RNS's, it says to me that the market will believe it when it sees it.

Hi Cityone, Jjust your last bit/dig "It's appalling that narrow-minded day traders do not understand the true value of this business and the complexities of tackling a new pandemic virus. "
Us "narrow-minded traders" want the same as LTB&H. we want to get a profit on the stock bought as soon as possible. Each to his own I would have thought , however this stock even with the spread has allowed many opportunities for 5-15% profits to be made by short term trading.
Any projection of gain in any business stock is a risk and AVCT is no different. Small Bio-Pharma's are inherently risky by the very nature of what they are attempting.
As I say we all want the same thing but there is more than way to skin a cat I guess. GL

brave Darren. If its going to pull back from here then its to 83p? in which case is that worth it? (I make no real prediction today as the SP is still unfolding but I don't see anything significant in selling at 87p.) Just my 2 cents.

I remember BJ at Porton Down in November talking about UK tests and saying how good the UK (test) industry was but "we are not quite there yet"
Hypothetical: If we did gave a great lab result, but it did fail the PD tests and therefore had to go back to AVCT to re-do it for mass testing, would that same problem affected the COVID BAMS test as well?
If so it would explain the time delay for both products that none of us can quite explain away?

I'm rare to this board so forgive me if this has already been noted but a double top formation seems to be in play which suggests a fall to alt least 500p . Sorry its not positive but forearmed for some, maybe?

well, obviously count me in Darren, but is just us 2 isn't it?

its almost honours even Darren? ( Well almost....)

well, the upside and its a big one, is that if it is April then a lot of people might be in a position to increase their ISA's for 2021 with the sp still around these levels?

The update on all this will come in the TU this month. The market generally (never mind us), really does need to know where AVCT is on all their Covid programs, the neutralising potential, the waste water, and of course, the test.
The long term pre-covid stuff seems to be going very well and looking at all the partnerships etc, quicker than expected?
I can't see the market accepting a fudge on info this time around but at the same time i'm not expecting AS to be anything but fulsome in his explanation of where AVCT is.

I thought "Moonshot" had been dropped last year? or at least the funds subsumed into a more general budget?