Member Info for wyndrum

Br, what's the matter?

Ah yes," Lucky Buffett"... (I'm kinda kidding). He did exactly the right thing at the right time I just don't think how that policy can work in this day and age when so many disrupter technologies spring up almost daily. (apparently the average time he holds a stock is 7.5 years.... We will make a Trader of him yet ....) :0))

Frank, If you are going into wishful thinking mode you could be a bit more ambitious?

Older, certainly trading comes with more immediate losses and gains as opposed to LTB&H but LTB&H is also hardly without its high risks.
For instance (given its LTB&H and you are more or less meant to buy and forget.)
How has retail done? The banks, the oil sector? These even 10 years ago but certainly 20 years ago, had you left in those sectors it would have been a bloodbath. And at the time these were Blue chip super reliable.
FWIW I think LTB&H was the right strategy during the 50's onwards but some years ago it became obvious with the speed of technological change that no company could be viewed with even a 5 year window. So how anybody is meant to choose the company now and then think in 20 years all will be, well is frankly just a guessing game.
Tesla today? Sure, but what about hydrogen fuel cells in the next 2-5 years? Who knows?
I think the game is a lot tougher now for everyone. GL

Hi Darren, yes fair play indeed, you got it right! well done. (hopefully your "bragging "rights will be short lived as it rises again and makes 90p a "do you remember when..." moment! ;0)

yeah, although it did not read like it, I also don't think a placing is remotely likely.

Ben, I am exactly the same! On the one hand it seems impossible (almost) that covid test news is coming will be anything but good. But on the other we have the soon to be renamed saying "Leaks like a sieve", to leaks like an Avacta RNS" realising in a diminishing SP which does not bode well!
Its very, very contradictory. Somethings not right.
I don't know if the market is suddenly going to say "Blimey Avacta have got a test out, who knew?" (which I don't think is actually likely.) But equally unlikely is the test does not materialise.
Maybe the only middle ground is its 2-3 months away from being available? (but even then, the market would still be buying surely?)
The only other options I can imagine is that there is a test about to be made available and its not AVCTs or there really is tight lips and the market is assuming the worse not realising people can actually keep a secret.
Its bloody strange whatever it is.
Or there will be another placing....no... no... can't be.

Actually no slinky. Good news, the SP does not always move up, and sometimes like today, actually goes down. Why did that happen?
So its not quite as black and white as you suggest, is it?
PAH says no downside. That was another "no wriggle room" statement, accept again its completely relative to what price was paid when initially buying, what the time frame is and what the expectation of the SP will be in that time frame.
I only mention this as the idea is to buy stocks and sell them on for a profit.
There are 2 holders: 1 pre covid who have done well and post covid where the price has yo-yo'ed violently since, with little or no gain whilst at the same time missing out on a target rich environment elsewhere. That environment is bound to produce such a diversity of opinion.

I agree wolves having also mentioned previously that this is a covid only stock as far as the SP is concerned. However every announcement that is positive (and non covid supports the SP a bit more should a test not materialise (or in time), so I don't think it will be a bloodbath, but who defines a what a bloddbath'ed SP looks like anyway? 50p? 60p? 80p?
Prior to covid it was 25p but since then we have had a very successful placing and money up front deals. I think that gets AVCT to 50-70p? but that's just a guess obviously.
I think it is a positive that the update is still being held off and the 2 last RNS's being released separately.
Unfortunately again, that can be argued both ways:
1 (bad news) isolate all the bad news into 1 RNS and keep the good news separate so is does not get lost in said bad news, Or
2 (Good News), the successful test is so fundamental to the SP (which it is) you do not want the 2 last RNS's lost in said good news.
You pays yer money an all that, but clearly the market has no interest currently in AVCT as a non covid stock which is interesting considering the potential (and obviously, nothing AVCT release goes "under the radar") Either they are missing something or we are..

That was kind of you DG.
Thanks

Forgive me researcher, but I have been "seduced" too many times in the past with stocks with the line to the effect of: "...talk about the move to £1.50 in the Spring, and £4 in the autumn..."
I know this not your point but there have been a couple of posts seeming to disparage "traders", so while I am here I might make the following observations:
Forget the light hearted to and fro with Darren & I, I was/am "predicting" a move to 90p, the stock price at the time was 82p. That's a 10% move. Some perspective: on the 28/10/2011 the sp was in the 90's. (ie above where it is today)
Or to put it in further perspective I bought on the 19 jan (11 days ago) stock at 66.5p. On Friday I could have sold at 81.5p and realised a 23% gain.
I identified a buying position which I posted here only on Thursday at 75p which is showing an almost 10% gain.
I say this not to use me as an example, but just to show that "trading" is not a particularly disreputable way of trying to obtain the same objectives of the LTB&H
In other words you could have bought then and 10 years later be sitting on a loss. So for me to identify a 10% gain in a short term time frame should not be dismissed quite so quickly I think?
There was also some discussion that implied trading is a bad thing or at least an undesirable trait?
I have traded for quite along time now and believe this is the best way to maximise returns. (Each to his own). But the basics are, aren't we all trying to maximise returns and ultimately in the shortest timeframe? (Some believe counter intuitively that LTB&H does exactly that and there is plenty of evidence to support that, like I say each to his own).
I want the same things as LTB&H strategists and incorporate that with capital protection.
What I don't do is "care" about the company and my experience has shown me that the longer you hold a share the more emotionally attached you become to it and subsequently, rational decision making is impaired.
Bit of a ramble (but it is the weekend) and sometimes I think traders get a bad press for making money (or trying to) which as that's what we all want to do, but their " crime" is simply wanting to do that in a short or shorter space of time than others.
Anyway I hope you are right and 400p arrives in double quick time! GL

Doctors will send out LFDs rather than have the symptomatic visit a surgery irrespective of the current epidemic they will need a constant supply.

Even if they have been vaccinated? (if so whats the point in being vaccinated?)

I'm not sure about 7 years Hurst. AZ is producing now, 100m per month or 1.2b per year. That is only 1 vaccine and can be ramped up further. India want 300m Vaccinated by July, the US 100m in 100 days. The EU is a bit of a basket case but in any event will eventually get their act together. I imagine Russia and China will look after themselves so that's, what, half or more of the worlds population?

Tychee: Presently there seems to be initial data that the Pfizer Vaccine reduces transmissibility by about 60% which is fantastic if that holds up and or other vaccines are similar or better.
My long(er) term take is that, if you stick a garden fork in your foot you don't have a test for tetanus, you just get the Jab. If you go to a place that has malaria, you take the pill or jab, you don't test for it for it first.
I am working on 3 assumptions. The Covid vaccines "work" as efficiently as typically other vaccines do, secondly the roll out of vaccines will be globally very rapid and thirdly is does not mutate to be more substantially lethal than at present.
So I agree some testing will be necessary but not on a scale I thought only up to a few weeks ago and only maybe up to about 18 months as a time frame in any sort of meaningful number and certainly not at "mass testing" levels
I also think when the dust settles if it is proved Obesity was a significant contributing factor to mortality then there will a bigger push to "healthier" eating than currently. Much in the same way eventually the West went after smoking as a cause to many cancers.
In any event I don't see testing for decades to come.

Tychee, the people coming in will be likely vaccinated, given the poverty of the nation (lowest 15 in the world), the richer, international travelling population will get the vaccine abroad no doubt. If Tanzania still looks to be a problem then it will be banned from international travel. But as I said given the overall poverty of the nation, its unlikely they will be able to afford mass testing in any event.
I think it depends on how successful the Bill Gates Foundation will be and the speed they can get to the poorer nations to vaccinate.
My feeling is about 3b people in poor countries will need to be vaccinated. At $10 a pop that's $30b. Given richer countries will also contribute I can see at least $15b from them and $15b from Gates. So I don't think funding will be a problem.
So then its logistics.

Tychee, If Tanzania do nothing their population will get it, some succumb and most won't. how does that example lead to testing for decades to come? (not arguing just trying to see the logic?)

I make of it that it is buyers that force the price down... but we don't open that can of worms again...

I imagine Boris will be talking about the new vaccine and confirming that AZ will produce what the govt originally ordered no matter what the perfidious EU say (or do).

Well, its got 2 choices Darren! (my bet is it rises to 90p and then a fall back to around 86p/87)

its itching to go to an intra week high of 86p and beyond. Feels like an irresistible force and there is no immovable object in its path.