Member Info for wyndrum

Rag, I happen to think Boo are doing the right things going forward but as a growth share it I think by definition underperforms. Its gone up about 25% or so from where it was nearly 4 years previously.
I could have got the same returns putting my money in GSK (al though the SP is about where it was 4 years ago so no capital growth at all (although I am pretty sure brokers would have said it would have been a great investment) at the time, but with its 6% dividend I would be at the same place.
Personally I think Boo's biggest problem is its ownership unfortunately that is the driving force of the company

Dan, so you show growth rates and various bit and bobs which are examples of fundamentals and then say the market hasn't factored them in yet?

Look at the broker recs on companies. When are they ever accurate? I don't have a problem with the concept of fundamental analysis and its tied in to technical analysis intimately anyway, but the projections are simply guestimates and nothing more. What if costs rise, what if China is banned from exporting cotton, what if youth unemployment hits Boo harder than expected? None of this is know but educated guesses are made but to try and see where the world will be in 2-3 years is some task.
Look at Tesla? is that valuation "correct"? is it over valued? and if it is what should it be, fundamentally I mean?

KCCO, I am not making a personal point so don't personalise it, but great swathes of what would be considered rock solid blue chip companies have performed very poorly indeed on a LTBH system.

Dan, Are you really happy to wait 2-or 3 years? if in 12 months time the SP is lower than it is now what then? What is your target to decide its the right investment for you? What has to happen and by when?
All SP valuations are based on a projection of earnings into the future. Its not based on what the company is worth now, today.
Its all a crap shoot and future expectations based on "fundamentals" is just some finance-speak BS to give (false) credibility to that person's best GUESS

KCCO, not really and not always....
(how has retail done , the banks, the oils, over the last 10 years. How has SDRY done?
Hindsight is wonderful...….

The TU might disclose some up front payments? Might disclose any sales that 3rd parties have made so far? Both could move the SP.
It feels (but a good covid test update will negate this thought), that the SP is being managed down on the covid test income expectation. I can't begin to work out what is "fair value" without an LFT, but the recent announcements clearly show potential revenue streams in advance of the precision trials.
Personally I now think any LFT is a bonus and that all the work done on Covid-type tests and manufacture is all about the next one (pandemic) , when it comes along and that the UK will be able to react extremely quickly to it.

You also could have mentioned JD, the difficult working conditions caused by Covid that AVCT staff have had to deal with at the premises at the same time.
Plus I imagine a million emails from PI's daily asking " is it us?" in probably, if this board is anything to go by, in pretty abusive fashion.
FWIW I judge companies SP on a 12 month rolling basis and 12 moths ago the SP was about 25p.
So not bad all things considered.

Although compared to many here I have come to the party only recently (68p first buy), nevertheless as I trade more frequently than some what helps enormously is the small spread on this stock. It is refreshing in the extreme, that a stock of this size does not come with a 5-10% margin on it. Its so unusual I felt the need to remark upon it. and I guess I have the MM's to thank? (do you don't hear that very often!)

I don't think its that complicated:
Its obvious the TU is delayed so as to time in with a more rounded update on the various projects in hand.
Presumably that data is imminent so the TU has been delayed coincide with it.
I am sure it will be next week now, and if were not, I am equally sure AVCT would have to notify the market for the reason for any delay.
So next week all will be revealed.

been buying all morning and this last tranch right now took ages to get through.. hopefully some big buys coming in

Pigster, I don't think you should have to justify or apologise on your views based on new "info" being made public. It sounds we are similar in thinking that the company via the sp, has a very bright future and makes a compelling investment case. Its only by discussing the cons as well as the pro's that a hopefully, more balanced and accurate picture is revealed.

JM, it just depends on what was expected: the SP does not reflect what the company is today but what it might be in the near future.
The good news today is the continued tie up with Brucker on a potentially lucrative market.
The bad news was that Bams does not seem to have progressed over the last 3-6 months but the SP had built in some revenue expectation. Now its been deferred (or removed), the SP falls.
It comes down to how much of the SP reflects the covid test?
I do think there is some govt interference which AVCT, in terms of a sovereign supply facility, has been caught up in but I think now events are overtaking their importance.
The data of the vaccine is at a very early stage but there are signs that it could affect and reduce transmissibility by 60%.
The argument put forward here previously is that having a vaccine did not stop you spreading it and therefore testing was still an imperative, well, now, maybe it does, or at least goes a long way to it.
In which case it begs the question once vaccinated what's the point of a test? More data collection will be needed but I think testing is a small window of opportunity because I imagine within 12 months a lot of the world will be done, (Think Bill Gates). I think the vaccine is cheaper then a test, and I think there will be further developments on successfully treating the virus should you fall very ill to it. (and I think better vaccines will also be developed)
I still think AVCT is a great ongoing investment story but increasingly I don't think this round of covid pandemic tests is going to play as much of a part as I thought, even last week.

Well I have taken my own advice and added, and continue now to pivot away from another bio tec company. I think this has a better short to medium term gain potential.

Nd, you couldn't actually be more wrong... but hey, don't let the facts get in the way of your opinion

This looks to be a good place to buy as its on a recent support line, so good risk reward. it will be interesting to see if it holds.

looks like 116p might be a support, then it goes to around 111p (122p was a short term support which is under pressure and has already given way once this morning.)

The main difference between Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis is that TA uses charts (often with technical indicators) to exclusively make investing decisions. It ignores the fundamental data available believing that that info is already represented in the current Share Price.
By definition a chart is backward looking and its merit for forecasting the likely future direction of the SP is a belief that "history" repeats itself, or understanding that as its people that buy and sell it is therefore people who ultimately determine the SP. People, under the right conditions, are fairly predictable. So hype up the fear and greed emotions and we tend all to react in a similar vein.
I only mention this because if you use TA and not FA, you don't have to read the RNS's or fret about the next one coming out, or read BB's for "advice", or "read between the lines" to really know what the RNS is saying etc etc.
(Given the last nearly 12 months history of s company statements and RNS's and interviews et al, it seemed worth mentioning.)

I really wish you would stop posting in this style Sujood. I know many here don't like/hate derampers because they can (potentially) get people to sell through worry that the shares will go down on baseless information.
You are as equally dangerous by constantly telling people to buy. What if there is a problem and the test does not come to fruition? What then?

ABDX is suffering and there is a big spread too...

I'm not sure the public care that much about testing (certainly not the way we do here!) so I don't expect Boris to make a such a big deal of it if/when it arrives via AVCT. From joe publics POV a test does not "solve" or "cure" anything. If its not free, then its just another overhead to doing whatever JP was going to do before, but is now forced to take a test to do.
However, say the word "Vaccine" and JP thinks "Cure!" That gets the govt some political kudos.
So while our test will be a big deal in the fight against covid I don't think initially at least, there is much or as much mileage as we think, in a big political statement. But it won't make any difference to the SP reaction, it will still rocket, I just am not expecting the news to break via Boris at a press conference. Ultimately the press will figure out the importance and then report on it after the event but by then as I say, the SP will have already reacted.
The public are so fed up now that even a big announcement of a "sovereign solution" including a working track trace app/better test/worlds best vaccine etc etc will not push the dial that much. They just want to go back to normal and don't really care about the detail, and if they don't, the politicians won't bother telling them. (just my 2 cents)