Member Info for wyndrum

it shows how hard it is to make money at selling mattresses! Who knew?

Good old AGL, (this is a much calmer place than some boards I could mention....)

Hi Raz,
I can't give you any industry info on this I'm afraid. Although I have traded for ever (or at least it seems that way), I have never bothered to find out about the mechanics of the buy sell process, only because, there is nothing I can do about it so it is what it is.
General observations are that very little manipulation actually goes on and MM's only imo move the price a little if they can, around stop losses to get a reaction and feeling of how nervous or not buyers and sellers are.
I also don't look at buys V sells as for every buyer there has to be a seller, so I see that as a rule, a zero sum game and don't draw any inference from it.
Common sense tells me (but this may be wrong) that on a larger spread the MMs don't have a clear vision of where the SP is going so will make their money on the spread and keep stock off their books. If they have a load of buy orders and no stock, I think the spread tends to narrow at first, with the sale price rising to get closer to the buy price to induce sellers, and its only when that fails do they move the buy and the sell price up to higher levels.
Personally I don't like large spreads (who does), as the stock then has a small mountain to climb just to get to breakeven on the transaction, but that's down to the individual, no one is pointing a gun at our heads to buy any stocks.
So, just my thoughts and I'm sure if you google it you would get much more helpful and accurate explanations

I think we are not the only ones struggling to guess the most likely outcome tomorrow.
The SP has been pretty solid for the last week or so and today the spread is pretty wide indicating to me that the MM's don't want to hold too much of this stock on their books.
Lots of sitting on hands, i think.
The upshot with a rampy spin, is that if the news is good, then the SP will shoot up as there will be demand and no easy way without raising the SP to fulfil the orders.
Looks like 7.5p to me (what a mug, making a prediction...….still it passes the time. Collect your virtual rotten eggs to throw at me tomorrow!)

Part of my calculation is always to protect capital and so I am trying to guess the potential downside on Thursdays figures.
On dec 3rd when the TU came through the SP closed at 4.8p (it had an intra day high of 5.4p so pretty much where are now.)
Given it then fell before eventually getting to where we are now, it would have to take a bit of a reversal for The SP to fall I think, on Thursdays results, maybe back to 4.8p at worse? However its difficult to see any particular bad news over the last 6 weeks, so, given the SP has not raced away, the downside looks pretty minimal to me.
So assuming its just steady as she goes then the SP should be pretty static, any "good news" should push it up a bit and obviously surprisingly good news up further still.
I think the nalysis so far done by others seems very reasonable to me, which on the face of it discount the chances of "surprisingly good news ", but my take would be that, the market knows where EVE is now (£2m-£2.5m annual loss). If CC can demonstrate that the month or two (or 3), and the first few weeks of Jan) show breakeven or better, then that's what may just give the SP the leg up we would all like to see.
I like the odds if only because the downside looks "protected" (Famous last words...)

Larsh, no one here as any problem repeating ad nauseam that we are getting a test very soon and Monday will be the day, sorry, Tuesday, no Wednesday, well lets get to the weekend where we get 2 days of it will be this Monday, and on and on and on.....
I am putting up my view where I think the SP will be should we not get a test out. God forgive me for trying to explain my thoughts as to why I get to my conclusion's to give balance and not be seen simply as a deramper.
But, no it has become the power of the crowd to decide that my posts particularly need to be highlighted as having no merit.
Well, that's fine, but right back in the day (july i think), I criticised the delay on getting a test out and PL75 went off alarming that what other tests were out there!!!!!! and what a twat I was and blah blah blah, my point being that other tests would come along. How did that work out?
I said before the vaccines were released in November that once they were available testing would be drowned out and all the attention would go over to vaccines.
very recently I said not to underestimate the govt's of the world to get people vaccinated quickly. (India wants 300m by july) And guess what?
So read my posts, don't read my posts, but my analysis has been more accurate than most here. (As has been my SP predictions for what that's worth).

I think there are only 2 scenario's:
1 is we have a test coming and there is an NDA in place that does not permit any public communication. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support this.
2 is, for whatever reason the test is not coming and the silence is simply because there is nothing to report. The reason that no negative announcement has been made is that it is still being worked on, and until all fixes are exhausted, its a work in progress.
Which ever way it goes, it will be obvious in hindsight.
I like many here I assume, are now pretty sceptical of anything AS says on test timelines as he has missed every deadline he has either said or hinted at. Also it is as vague as ever which given the time under development I would have thought the opposite would have been true. (It is instructive that scenario 1 is predicated on the silence being a "Positive" indicator of everything going well. To me, that's a pretty strong example of Confirmational Bias in making the absence of known facts fit the argument.)
I am leaning on balance, to Scenario 2 if only because both Bams and the waste water detection elements which are not directly connected to the LFT are also way, way and in fact inexplicably at present, behind schedule and I am not sure why they would be part of an NDA on the LFT tests?
So, assuming the worse, that there is no test, what is the SP worth? My best guess is between 70-90p. On the plus side the SP fall has been managed down to where a further 25%-30% does not feel quite so catastrophic from where we are now.
I think we are starting to get to the same mindset as the market did 2 months ago, the test would be great, and would be a tremendous fillip in terms of revenue etc etc, but if it does not happen then the diagnostics and therapy treatments are making such good progress, that further patience will very likely be rewarded.
The test should it now be released, will have a big impact on the SP close to doubling I would have thought.
It feels to me as though we are pretty much, test wise, in expectation and SP, where we were in June. Could be anytime now! (or not)

Interesting Firex, it would be a weird thing if EVE pivoted away from beds into clothes! ( I don't think so but given the very strong growth in "Leisurewear" it is at least smart, nimble thinking to branch out while the iron is hot in this field. It lends itself to sportswear, as exercise allows for a better nights sleep, the correct footwear because it stops potential back aches which can hinder a good nights sleep...Well you get the drift....)
I wonder if we will hear a bit about this on Thursday? (Probably not as I think I am losing the plot a bit now and getting far too much conformational bias in my thinking!)

I clearly spoke too soon about the SP rise sticking Ha!

well, this is tricky to forecast isn't it?
CC has repeatedly stressed the slow progress that is being made "inches, not yards" etc to down play expectations. And that is good because although disappointing to us impatient shareholders, it has the virtue of being accurate and honest, which I am sure the city approves of.
The key (as I keep repeating), is can EVE trade at a profit? If CC can prove that then we are away. (realistically very quickly to about 8p-9p tops I think, with a mid 7p SP as the initial reaction.
If this news is good but slow, then maybe a bit of an improvement tot around 6p ish because its another 3-6 months before the confirmation.
Can CC deliver a KO blow with a big surprise on the upside? maybe but although possible that would for me be unexpected (lovely, but unexpected!) For that to happen they would have had to have been an almighty surge in Dec sales (inc France), coupled with lots of the other smaller stock being available for the first time but still selling out over the Xmas period.
(The news could disappoint but that is I think at the moment the least likely scenario after the recent profit upgrade)

Don, it already revisited 4.80p and moved back up so it may not do so again before the results given its about 3 odd trading days away.
More likely imo is that it will edge up to 6p around give or take .2p prior to results. If sellers hold on and don't give in to buying pressure then it could spike before the results but again. really any thoughts anyone has as to what may happen is as valid as anyone else's.
If you want to play purely the chart game then you would probably wait until the results come out and then see what happens from there to time a better entry in terms of risk reward. (That could mean buying in the mid 6's or above but for the SP to be there it would probably mean EVE was a "safer" bet and therefore falls from there in the SP less likely)

And further to Scousers excellent summary and as you mentioned heavy social media advertising: That is actually (or was) a lot of the problem. The cost of using social media and the internet rankings etc was breaking the business model of EVE. So when they launched they went down the route of HUGE advertising , sales rocketed, but losses exploded, so they stopped doing that and sales collapsed. Big head scratching moment!. Since CC has taken over she is having to through necessity, do very little advertising and is slowly trying to almost re-invent the company as a "brand" . This has almost stopped the flow of losses completely and we all wait with some expectation that she has finally steered EVE into a going concern.
As to where the SP is going, well if we knew that then we would all be millionaires and no need to post here!
The bull case is that with the approx. £8m cash in hand coupled with a profitable company being announced on the RNS next week, will allow for a re-rate to the SP. Where it could be re-rated to is anyone's guess and mine, in the very best scenario is probably around 8p-10p.
Longer term (12-24 months), if this company keeps going forward then maybe 30p looks achievable. But, really who knows?

personally I would be very wary on anything PP says. She does not entertain any dissent, so its impossible to discuss her view poin with hert. I do not think she is a long term holder, because almost be definition if she was then she would not be checking the SP every day and posting on BB's like this (which is as we all know, pointless).
She makes a song and dance on research and only if the story changed would she sell. I have asked her repeatedly during the slavery story, what it would take for her to sell, given that she did not entertain the fact over that period. (And remember the story at its height painted Boo in a very bad ethical light, with no way of knowing if it was worse than was being reported at the time, as well as the law suit in the US hanging over them.)
Anyway, I would suggest as with all posters on every BB, you assume they are not that bright. (Me included obviously)

market flurry after a day of inaction makes me think maybe tomorrow is the day.

Ade, not being rude but do you know how companies are valued? PERs etc

Hi SJ, I take the point but my understanding is they don't know yet how long the vaccines last as they have not had enough time and data to see that yet. If (and I know its an if) this follows the ever-changing influenza virus then the vaccines will be tweaked to match and given to the over 60's as per the flu jab annually. (Again it has to be recognised that the vast majority of people who contract covid recover quickly or do not even present any symptoms, so I think going forward, not all of the population will be deemed necessary as to get the jab.)
I am not saying or making the argument that this virus will disappear, I am just asking the question on how long mass testing might actually be present with us, given that we don't test presently for this sort of thing when we have a vaccine available.
JVT said that he did not see the virus mutating quickly enough in one go to render the current vaccines ineffective, so on that basis the current round of Jabs will probably be ok.

Super what difference does it make whether you label me a chart trader? What difference does it make to you?
Nothing I post here influences the price. If posts here did, given the ramps that come by the dozen every day, suggests we would already be at £10. But we are not

I get this argument fully Oak, that without a vaccine then testing is the only route to slow infection spread down.
But how long will it be fore vaccination covers what testing did?
Obviously I think we all initially expected a AVCT test originally in Q3, then Q4 for sure and now, looks like at best, mid to back end Q1. Our assumption is that AVCT would or will be the best. the longer this goes on gives other companies an opportunity too to produce good or reliable tests. Then it becomes a race to the bottom for pricing. That's a lot of uncertainty in my book for both testing and much more to the point AVCT's test, assuming we get one and the profits we make.
I am as hopeful as anyone here that we crack it. I just don't see the mass test window being as large or as long lasting as I thought back in June.

Ah super, you are so original suggesting I am bore. Any other band wagon you want to jump on to?
And well done for going straight to personal insults rather than engaging in the pros and cons of how big the test market might be for AVCT and its longevity

I agree JM, when I referred to an end point I mean the world in lock down. At some stage the world will I think accept (and it was Witty who confirmed this), that there will be in the UK, annual deaths form covid that society accepts just as it does for influenza each year which ranges typically between 7000-20,000.
I don't think its going away at all but as this is an investment board and the covid test was a major part of the AVCT SP, then it's relevant to discuss how long mass testing might last.
When is a test (assuming avct release one which is not a given anymore I don't think), going to be available now to actually receive? Feb? March?
When do we decide that the mass testing boat has been missed? is there a month we could collectively agree on? Or do we all think that mass testing will be necessary now for ever?