Member Info for wyndrum

AP, most of the people who talk about mass testing have skin in the game.

My point is Doh, that even allowing for some people who will refuse it (and yes I think children will be offered vaccination just as they are now for other illness's), the combination of infection and vaccination could see the vast majority (90%? ) inoculated one way or the other against covid between the middle and the end of the year. Currently as an example, we have the ever changing Flu strain which is given out annually to the over 60's. I can see that being the case with the covid vaccine too going forward.
This does have to have an end point. The world cannot function in a perpetual state of some form of lockdown. So at some stage life goes back to some sort of normal. What will constitute that? ( I think mass vaccination coupled with a vastly reduced incidence of hospitalisation.) All the evidence so far points to a particularly set of vulnerable people at high risk. 80% (I think) of the population deal with any infection relatively easily.
I think testing will have its place for research and greater vaccine efficacy and dealing with ever changing strains etc but I think the global mass test market is perhaps not as long lasting as some here think.
And lastly, as a point to bear in mind for advocating mass testing going forward and being around long term: Who is going to pay for it? £10 per test, family of 4, once a week, twice a week? Who can afford that?

Oak,
Do you think mass testing will be needed when everyone is vaccinated and or has been infected?
If not, When do you think that will happen in the UK
My back of a fag packet calculation would be 8m per month vaccinated and 3m per month getting infected, 11m total per month.
So 6 months? tops 12 months to get UK done? (and we will be probably be about average so by the end of this year UK/USA/EU/Japan etc all vaccinated?

somethings a foot surely?

What encourages me, is that on the back of a strong rise in the morning it did not peter out and fall back. It suggests there are some sticky fingers out there and that current share holders have bought for the long term (or at least for the definitive outcome of this tech) and don't seem prepared to take the first bit of decent share price appreciation to sell out.
As I said earlier, just think what will happen when we get a good RNS!

45 mins to go. stuck at 370 all day....I wonder... The last 15 mins should be fun...

Nicely poised for the normal afternoon buys

I Posted this on 31st dec

"seems to be a big majority of blue trades this morning. As there is no move in the SP it lloks like the MM's have enough stock to satisfy demand. I would suspect they don't hold that much so if the buying continues, they are going to have to raise the spread to encourage sellers and deter buyers."

Looks to be repeating itself today?

Thanks Barry, could be, but I don't know, this is a big move on an article that XSG is not even mentioned in. Goodness knows what will happen if we get decent revenue inducing news!

Very strong move this morning to a recent all time high and the next stop from a chart perspective is about 550p. Yip bloody ee

Hi CI, The 8p was just a theoretical number I came up with in answer to a question from D. It had no significance from my perspective, simply saying if it went to an arbitrary 8p before the results I would bail out and take the money.
Right now, I see the price in between the levels of 4.8p support and 6.45p resistance, so to buy in this middle ground leaves the person (in this case me!) to have a larger stop loss than would be ideal. However, as it has already come back to test that support and bounced off it I am reasonably satisfied the odds are it won't do it again...…..(yep...famous last words... sorry everyone...)
I think 7p plus is on the cards as I vaguely remember an intra day high of 7p plus, but I may been on drugs that day so who knows... I digress...
So, 5..68p buy, get out at 7p ish is 25% gain for a week or so. (I am basing it on unlikely to fall from here as we have had a little retrace after yesterdays strong move.)
So that's my (as usual too much detail) thought process on why I bought today at 5.68p (It was not my plan this morning but I took the profit from BooHoo and have decided there is more chance of a bigger gain on EVE than with Boo over the next few trading sessions)

I am sure they are on it Rag, and I also think the family will want to "stuff it down a few throats" on Thursday so they will I think, paint a very very bullish picture no matter what the figures might say, and indeed play arounf with them as much as they possibly can to paint a very good story. But hey, like I said its a guessing game.

But there is a bear case here as well. Returns going back to normal, cost of distribution in pandemic, up, cost of sorting out slave labour. All of these things will hit margins. Now, the $64m dollar question is by how much? and will the increase in sales dwarf the, likely lower margins?
That's why its an intriguing guessing game this time around. (nothing is nailed on in this game)

Don't know why I asked, I only had to google dunelm! Anyway, I have topped up further at 5.68p.

Is it right that EVE have a tie up with Dunelm? If so they report on Thursday so good figures from them might bleed a bit into EVE?

Holy hypertheticals D....
It would depend on the SP: if it went to maybe 8p I would sell irrespective of the results to come. I would then risk the results propelling the SP further up because I would think in any event it would fall back at some stage to test 6.45p.
Thing is I wouldn't care: (My approach is, in this very specific example, it goes to 8p very quickly: I sell and bank the profit. if it goes on to 10p or more, I don't care. There would no emotional remorse. I bought in with the intention of making a profit, If I think the share has become over bought I would be happy to take the money and wait for it to drop back. And if it doesn't, cest la vie, (at some stage it will and If I was keen to stick with EVE there will be other opportunities to get back in.)
That's where LTB&H can win out over the likes of me. I only win by taking that good, quick profit and winning again on another stock and so on, so that by the time I come back into EVE at say, 12p (now wouldn't that be nice!) I have made more money than leaving it in the stock.

then I would be looking to sell on new highs based on the RSI indicator showing the stock was oversold,

Meant to say overbought , not oversold.... Yikes,...

My bet is it will be stellar. The US would not be continually buying unless the news was going to very good... well that's my take anyway.

it will depend on the update.
There is plenty of room in the SP to go to, to match the all time high. if the results are stellar I am not sure there would be quite the sell off this time around as the forward look will be the worst is behind us now and there will be an explosion oy pretty young things going out to make up for lost time.
Or
If sales are only very good but not stellar, it may relegate this to a 6 month wait and see approach and the SP could well stall.
Place your bets

Thanks for that Bouncer. A bit of rambling response below.
My opinion would be that those time frames are a bit too long for charting to be of too much help.
Typically charting is used to predict movements over smaller timescales, from intraday to maybe a few weeks.
Fundamental news will effect the chart pattern and as a s result charts are better on intraday very volatile stocks or better still, indices and futures.
I use charts these days to try and time entry and exit point on most stocks that I trade in. On that limited basis I would (re-iterate) that I see 6.45p as the next resistance level with currently a support level at 4.8p.
If the SP brakes and closes above 6.45p then we have to go back quite a way (July '18!) to see a big fall to 29p and then a slow and gradual fall to about 1.25p over the next 2 years before it picked up last July. Because the timeline is so long it makes it very hard to "predict" where the SP is likely to go. I guess if you just look at the chart then 30p would be the absolute critical resistance point but 3 years is to long imo to give any weight to. Even now to forecast where the next resistance point would be after 6.45p is a stretch because 10p (which is where I see it) is jan 2019 ( 2years ago)! So really if 6.45p is broken upwards then its really new territory and if was trading this stock, then I would be looking to sell on new highs based on the RSI indicator showing the stock was oversold, waiting for it to come down and then buying back in, then, over a period of (recent, up to date) time, new patterns will have formed and then the charts can maybe help out. But this stock with its high spread makes trading a bigger gamble then I usually take on.
(Having said all of that, EVE has worked out very well for me, much to my surprise, but I would not recommend trading this stock, because it is only recently, this last 9 months or so, that it has been volatile enough to make it worthwhile. (who knew?) I think there will come a time when it will revert back to a sleepy stock that just sparks into life in and around results time)
Don't know if this helps much