Member Info for wyndrum

Neut, basic supply and demand. If it were the other way around and buyers forced the price up you would be saying that buyers want to pay more for a product then they have to.
Buyers can generate demand but its the seller that dictates the price for SP to rise. Like wise its buyers that cause the SP to fall. Sellers may want to sell, at say 150p but if nobody wants to buy unless its at 100p, what do think will happen?
What happens is that a buyer, say, right now, wants to buy at 116p. If nobody sells at 116p then the buyer does not get his stock. So the buyer increases his bid until a seller says, "oh all right then I'll sell at 118p." and the SP rises. But as I say conversely, if a seller says, "look I'll sell at 118p" and nobody buys at 118p but the buyer says, "I'll buy at 116p," and the seller reluctantly even, agrees, then its the buyer that has pushed the price down.
So sellers force the price up and buyers force it down. So us holders need sticky fingers !

123p is still from a chart perspective a sticking point. if the SP gets above that then its a bit messy to the penny, anywhere between 133 and 137p is next so lets assume a break above 137p then leads onto 162p. But lets wait see if we can get above 123p. Remember its sellers that push the price up. At some stage they have to stop selling at around these levels for the SP to break upwards

It really isn't AP. Many will have lost (either on paper or actual) a great deal on this based on buying in and assuming AS's predictions would come to fruition in the times he himself indicated. Its far from mad, its actually sensible and logical.

Agent, I don't think Avacta are not "up against" anything. The requirement for a test (any test) is that it is reliably accurate, otherwise its pointless, or in this specific Innova case, dangerously pointless.
The press are (at long last), after 9 months starting to actually hold the govt to account and ask some basic questions.

Neut, you would think, but what tests are they (the hospitals) using? (Respiratory illness comes in many varieties apart from covid.)
(The death rate is "with a positive Covid test in the last 28 days". Death is not recorded "from" covid.
As I say I'm not attempting to deny covid at all, I am just wondering if Innova is the main test and it is hopelessly inaccurate then the stats that are deduced from it will also be hopelessly inaccurate. But I am just thinking out loud.
Flu deaths are (apparently) down for the time of year for instance.

Vegas, its really difficult to get up to date info. I have looked for a while now. 1600 people typically die per day in the UK of all causes. Winter is always higher than that. I am not denying Covid, all I am saying is that if the mass test is so inaccurate (which we have said on this board forever), then the figures that are reported of positive cases it produces cannot be relied upon either, can they?

Ignoring the specifics of AVCT: If the mass test is so inaccurate, (as per the WOW thread earlier today) then it genuinely is a crapshoot to know exactly where we are with this and its spread and particularly this new infectious strain: Is it as infectious as reported (in good faith)? Where is the data coming from? who is checking, how is it being checked? This is not a conversation to lead to Covid denial or any crap like that but just at a much more fundamental level. If we don't know the accuracy of the tests then we can't begin to guess at the spread and rate of infection. (Even now some Dr's are saying the new strain might not be any more infectious but the result of super spreaders, and that basically the data is too new and too raw to come to any conclusion yet.)
However, lives are livelihoods are being lost on the assumptions behind the mass testing results..
It would be ironic, but just for the sake of argument, (wrong choice of words on this board..) if the AVCT test is so accurate and it turns out the virus is nowhere near as rampant as first thought it would explain why it took so long to get live samples done (condor) because patients who were tested kept coming back not infected. I dunno, but this govt has been so inept in everything it has done so far it is no longer for me, beyond the realms of possibility, that they could have got this part so awfully wrong as well. I accept this idea is out there but something doesn't add up .I am just trying, however absurd, to figure out why something that was identified to work within 4 weeks of trials and test at AVCT Labs
still can't finish clinically evaluation nearly some 6 or 7 months later. I wonder if we will ever know?

SP, That's a lot of assumptions and the only point I'd make given, that your every assumption turns a query of the RNS into a positive outcome, is...wait for it..... why didn't the RNS just say what you think (or in truth hope), it meant?
What positive, what help, does obscuring a good positive message have for share holders on an RNS?
Unfortunately it makes more sense, to assume that an obfuscating RNS is trying to gloss over expected good news rather than hint at great things around the corner, Apart from the new collaboration this was yet another report of a time delay to what was previously announced. And that's it for the year I reckon. the wait continues...defo missed on human dosing which I think is more of a concern because there seems less reasons to invent why this particular milestone has been missed.

Sure Cheng, I agree, the safety net is imo, a 40-50p SP. Otherwise without the long term, non covid potential, the company would be worthless (if a covid test did not materialise)
And not directed at you Cheng but I think the view that the placing at 120p was not influenced by AVCT's potential for a covid solution is unlikely. To think it would not have been part of the conversation to the companies involved in the placing would be unthinkable. It was a factor imo.
But I can only re-iterate, I think AVCT will deliver a positive RNS of merit within 4 weeks and still see this as a good buy in level particularly based on the chart pattern which to me is just a graphical representation of what the majority of buyers and sellers currently believe. As far as I can see, the risk reward ratio has not materially changed today from Friday

Remember I am coming at it from a market view point (or to be more accurate, my interpretation of the market view).
(All approx.)
SP before covid 25p: After covid, peaks at 202p: vaccine news sp at 180p. falls to 100-120p when market sees testing as less valuable due to much quicker roll out of vaccine(s) than previously thought.AVCT SP always jumps on positive covid news. (June etc etc) When covid test delayed then SP falls. now stuck for weeks around this price. The news today that was good, was non covid, SP has fallen.
If I am wrong and obviously I could be, then where do you think the SP would be if an RNS said covid testing stopped as it didn't work?
Maybe I am being a bit too harsh to say it would go back to 35p ish but I think it would at least halve from here, hence why I say, that right now, today, this stock is seen as a covid play. The (always short term) market is not presently interested in the next 12-36 months of AVCT. Its all about the covid test. I am not saying this is "right" or makes sense to discount the other part of the business, but this is how I think the market "values" avct presently.
I still think fwiw it will come good and I can't remember when I first, either late November or earlier this month, thought January now was the time AVCT would actually be issuing a substantive Covid update. But this is where I think we are and personally, right or wrong, don't think the market cares right now for anything other than the COVID tests in AVCT's portfolio

JD, I might be reading the wrong tone in your post, but it seems as though you think the covid aspect is almost a distraction from what AVCT are about and while acknowledging the opportunity it gave for the pacing, otherwise you are very happy at where things stand. I would point out, if there had not been the covid distraction, the SP would about 25-35p and the company pretty much skint.
Whether we like it or not, right now this is a pure covid play stock.

Maltby, I am not sure, when you say "covid going nowhere" I know what you mean? For all the daily tests that prove positive there are a significant amount of asymptomatic cases that go untested. 35000 a day another 15000 asymptomatic? 50, 000 a day catching it is 350k per week = 171 weeks for 60m to catch it, or just over 3 years. Given herd immunity is meant to work around 70% of the population our 60m population falls to 42m, which when divided by our weekly infection of 350k/week translates to 120 weeks or 2 years and we are just coming up to the first year, so 12-15 month left? (and its accelerating at present.)
I accept there are unknowns such as the new strains and how long the body's natural immunity lasts and I also accept it is a pretty simplified bunch of number up top nut nevertheless my point is still, this won't last forever.
Which forgetting AVCT's role in all of this, this is something we should perhaps keep in mind, because at this rate I don't know what sort of society we are going to have left at the on the other side of this if we keep going down this road. Even Mrs W, now we cant see her Mum and family over Xmas, and who you could not wish to meet a more cheerful soul, was terribly upset at the news and is asking "will we ever go back to normal?" and admitted to being worn down by this never ending solitude that most are having to endure. Can't see friends, can't mooch about, can't even have a coffee out.
It won't last forever, it is not as deadly as it is portrayed and we don't have to be scared witless just because this strain is more infectious.
These are all challenges but we must keep a sense of perspective.

Well, the update arrived as forecast (in leiu of any actual news on the various development fronts), but not terribly helpful. still vague timelines, although significant commercial progress is stated. So no "bad " news of failures thus far. For me the worst part is now having to decide whether to hang on for yet more time before actual test are released and a forecast of cost/profit can be made. Nothing again on Human dosing and that's starting to concern me now. That seemed to be the one area, being divorced from covid, that the timelines given should have been met.
so very much a curates egg. The SP over the next 48 hours should make it clear what the majority think. Overall and on balance I am disappointed. I thought an update if no actual news was forth coming, had to be released in Q4 but I thought if it did come, it would be (much) more upbeat than this. Tricky.

Vegas, firstly just read my recent history of posts before you start saying its all gloom and doom. You will find you are wrong.
But to your substantive point that the price was manufactured down. It does not really matter how many wanted to sell, it is more how many wanted to buy and at what level. If someone wants to sell at any price but nobody wanted to buy until it went to say, 100p then that's where it will go. Volume is not important.
The fact that the same type of stocks went down shows that whoever did buy understood better than you what these companies are worth in this current environment.
What is AVCT worth if it produces no test? No waste water detection tech? if there is a delay unspecified on human dosing its cancer therapy? (remind me again what the current position is?)
Ultimately vaccination is the solution to this pandemic. It will take probably 12-36 months before it becomes yesterdays news. I would suggest the general market did not believe a vaccine could come out so quickly but it has and now there are 2 more and soon there will be several more. As a result testing companies are seen now not to be quite so valuable as they were. (particularly if they don't actually even have a test to sell)
If the fall was manufactured the shares would have risen long ago but sellers keep selling at these levels. Look at this way, if the SP opened on Monday at 180p on no news and no leaks of news, would you sell? or if you would not, would you at least have the honesty to admit probably lots of current shareholders would?
If somebody wants to sell but nobody wants to buy then the SP will fall.
The only way this stock rises is if sellers stop selling. Its basic supply and demand. This share has potential to multi bag but up to now it has been woeful on meeting its own forecasts. Forecasts that only the company can make with its intimate knowledge of what it is doing. If it can't be trusted to be accurate, then its hardly news that buyers are even more wary.
Again, ask yourself this question: if you knew, back in the summer and then the subsequent updates and presentations all around late Sept and early Oct, that none of it would come to pass, would you have bought the shares at any price let alone 160-190p?
The market does not care about this stock, its just people buying and selling, just basic supply and demand. The AVCT story right now, is one of serial disappointment to its shareholders. That may all change on Monday and if it does, buyers will want to have some because the risk has gone. Then you will find sellers don't want to let go of their stock and the price will rise. If you can't grasp the basic concept of supply and demand then this is not the place for you?

Really Vegas? then why hasn't it gone back up? Explain that please before you just criticise me.
Do you understand basic supply and demand?

Tim, we didn't get robbed on vaccine news. Buyers force the SP down. When the news broke some wanted to sell but none wanted to buy until the SP fell to 100p and below. It has been weeks now since the news and buyers currently don't want to buy above 115p There is no demand to take the SP up to even the placing price right now. Its sellers that force the price up and they are all to ready to off load anywhere between about 103p and 120p.
There is no conspiracy, no theft, no MM manipulation. The price is where it is because sellers are eager to get out at every spike and buyers are not willing to pay any more than they have to and at the moment it is a buyers market.
News will change that, but until it arrives it is unlikely the SP will move much unless the sellers decide to get sticky fingers and hold on to their stock.

I think posters here do actually realise there is a global market but the problem is .....we don't have a marketable test. And everyone expected it to be here a long time ago, so its not a fixation on the UK market but simply we expect the UK govt to announce it available here first before any other country excepts or orders it.
no one even with vaccines increasingly available does not think testing will still be needed, but we actually do need a test to sell. That's the issue. And that's been the issue since the summer.

Whoa there Khanmy! "something is better than nothing..."? be very, very careful what you wish for......

Given the high (and justified) frustration levels here leads me to assume we can't be the only ones. The "big" shareholders would have had the same updates as we have been given. There will have seen the same presentations and it is inconceivable that AS would be telling them something different to us, the general public and market.
And I am sure that they have contacted AVCT for an update and received more than a 3 line non-response reply.
As the SP is actually very stable around this level which as every no-news day ratchets up more tension for the PI, suggests that they too are sufficiently confident that good news is coming.
The SP also underlines that. Every time it drops it just (presently) sucks in more buyers. At some stage the sellers will all be gone so the rises will stick as buyers now are not looking I would think, to get out at 117 or 120p.
So although I am as frustrated and ticked off as everyone else, I still think that this is going to fly based on my thought process above. (And fwiw a short term support at 110p has developed and I think we may have a better end to today then where we are now.)

DTW, "Unless you need money for Christmas presents, hold tight as it is almost inconceivable that your shares will be worth £1.10 or less come spring."
Is a fair point but I think it would have been just as fair to have said that in June/July and have the end of September as a date of expected (dramatic) SP increase. And that's the problem that I have faced and I am sure may others have.
Just as an example, I bought quite a lot of DC. in the summer expecting a big bounce after lockdown, but it really did not happen so I sold at about a small 5% profit and put it into Avacta. I had no intention at any stage of holding DC. for 6 months or so but if I had I would be up 40% now, as it is I am down with AVCT about 18% and I have hung around for 6 months because the news is "imminent" and the longer it goes on, the sooner the news has to drop. And I am sure many here have a similar tale to tell.
I had decided a few weeks ago now to give it to Jan some time, maybe 2 weeks in, and if no news by then I think I will have to exit because I can't keep not earning from this stock. I am still confident that we will get positive news (otherwise I would have sold out already), but we can't stay suspended in this news blackout for that much longer and certainly not another 3 months into the spring.