Member Info for wyndrum

I agree, Oake that AVCT are in your view, in a great position regarding the known competition, but what is avct's S&S? When will it be released? What will be the production rate of these tests? When has AS's predictions timewise, ever been correct for this test's release? What type it will be (saliva or nasal swab), Will it be a home test ? All of these issue affect the SP.
I don't disagree one jot with your view by the way, but until we have a test out to compare, it makes forecasts about the future wealth of the company seem somewhat premature and hubristic. Because in a sense nothing has changed over the last 6 months except there have been more tests, more infections, more deaths, and a reduction in the SP of AVCT. Something is out of kilter don't you think? Either we are missing something or everybody else is. I am just, in my roundabout way, asking which one it is.

fair enough. GLA

Well, I don't think asking when do we think herd immunity might occur is a stupid question when at the same time its "out of control" and its running pretty much unrestrained and its already been with us for about 12 months.
I don't see its a weak argument when the flu vaccine (which is only targeted at the vulnerable and is about 60% effective, is rolled out annually. They are not tested for flu are they, they just get given their annual jab.
So yes, at some time the missing boat analogy will be relevant, in fact its always been relevant but the supposition has always been we would be if not first, then in the first wave of tests available, and the market so huge as to, again be irrelevant. When will it not be relevant to discuss this? When do we think not having a test available will actually have an affect on the SP, or the amount of other tests and vaccines available? Or has it already? Is no test already built in, in which case the SP is a steal at this price. But apologies for trying to discuss the moving target of an investment case for AVCT

Don, assuming the vaccine does not stop the spread, the under 18's who are not eligible are irrelevant to the idea of herd immunity.
Looking at the graphs of the spread it was when the schools and uni's reopened that it took off again, suggesting that that was a large contributory factor to the autumn "2nd wave", or largely the age group you think would slow down herd immunity.
Does anyone actually object to the theory that given enough time, herd immunity would happen? If so, how long will it take? The only way to make a stab at that is to try and guess how many infections are taking place each day/week/month.
For instance, just to make the point, if AVCT does not produce a test by the spring will that have any effect on its market for tests? What if its the summer, or the autumn? Is there any acceptance that the test market is finite? If it is, what are the conditions to this finite market? That's what I am trying to get at. If you think covid has an infinite testing capacity then fine, but why do you think that?

I'm not sure so as always forgive if I am jumping to a wrong conclusion but here's something I am not sure the posters who are so sure of the longevity of tests required fully take into account:
The rate of infection is increasing, but we don't know how fast or how many are getting it due to asymptomatic cases and also cases that don't bother to get a test maybe due to mild symptoms or just not wanting to having to isolate for other reasons. But in any event I think a lot more people per week get covid than is being reported. If current testing is poor (in terms of reliability) and vaccination is going to be a while (you can all tell me when you think we will be vaccinated, or indeed if you think vaccination due to the unknowns is not at present the answer, to quell this virus then when do we get to herd immunity? Are we months or years away?
The catch 22 is while we all complain about the current testing not helping the situation as proof of more and more people get it, then the sooner we get to herd immunity and you don't need tests?
So if the argument is we need a better test (AVCT), all the time we don't have it allows the need for tests to diminish as herd immunity starts to kick in.
I still think we have time I just don't think the market is as big as some here do and I think its got a shorter life span as well. That's why I (personally) need some good news in the first 2 weeks of Jan, because this window isn't as big as it was in the summer when we thought we were ahead of the game. I think, now, nature, will probably come up with the solution (herd immunity), quicker than the scientists.

that's good, different points of view talked out. good argument always makes me think.

Doh, I don't know the answer to that, I could make a guess buts that all it would be, but my logic says that we should not underestimate, particularly the US, in producing the vaccine and by the vaccine I mean anything that will work. Pfizer seems to have a temperature problem, but, when was the last time you heard that mentioned? Oxford is easy to administer logistically but its efficacy is around 60-70%, I don't think Moderna have a "problem" logistically and there are others starting to queue up for release. And like I said, to begin with you do the at risk people and you protect the NHS. Once the NHS can cope then this will fall away very quickly I think. In all likelihood testing is going to be vital for a while maybe a couple of years, but it will be behind the scenes, not headlines and the focus will probably be commercial and not govt sponsored and will it be AVCT's?
Of course I could be wrong but I don't make my money by buying after the news has broken. I have to, for better or worse try and figure it out for myself. IMO, the risk reward is not what it was in June at 150p.
As for the WHO, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but at the same time I am not naïve either. As we have seen there are literally billions at stake here. It seems clear to me that AVCT is not part of the solution of the multi national companies that stand to and are profiting from this crisis.
Just as examples: How many people in China each day are dying of Covid, or even cases, likewise the middle east, likewise south America, likewise India? Its not reported on national media. We get the US, we get Italy France and Germany and sometimes Spain. See how the reporting is changing? Either the rest of the world is coping much better, or we have, as a press & media just decided to stop reporting on those counties? I don't know? I do know we managed to get all sorts reports out of China in feb march when it was just kicking off but now? Zilch.
When the vaccines are being produced in their millions as they are just starting to, I think we will be amazed at the organisation, all of a sudden to get people jabbed quickly. And Like I say once you have done the vulnerable, covid really is not that much of a problem for the rest of us.
AVCT are still in the game, but until and when a test is released its impossible to judge the commercial potential, but testing is not the solution, its a stop gap. Vaccination was always the answer. The clock's ticking as it always has.
test, test, test? Perception, perception, perception?

People will pretty much believe what they are told by authority. As best as I can ascertain, covid is particularly dangerous for over 75's and or others with already diagnosed serious health issues, everybody else not so much. If people are told repeatedly its under control and the vaccines work, hey presto. We, I would suggest on this board, are very well educated on this issue both with testing (all the types of tests) and the pro's and cons of vaccines, much, much better than the press are for instance, let alone the general public. This is not about "fact", this will be about perception. The govt, has to, from their POV, get on top of this and they at last have something to work with (the vaccines). They tried it with tests but the ones available were so bad even they could not spin it as a success. People are desperate for a way out of this and will believe what they want to hear. Don't underestimate that.
As for avct, testing will be necessary, I know that but I don't know when we will have one ready. Does anyone here know?
Personally, this has been (perversely really, given its potential), my worst investment of the year by a huge, huge margin. This share has to triple from here to simply put me back to where I would have been had I not invested and stayed with the stocks I liquidated to buy AVCT, and that's ok because it s my decision, but like Hants I am very close to simply putting my money elsewhere. I only bought this stock to make money and time really is money, I am sure most realise that but for the ones that don't, well I suggest you figure it out. In the meantime I' will stick to my plan of waiting into mid Jan and then re-assess. But if no new news comes out by then I will reduce my holding to a small amount because I have, over the time spent with the stock understood its cancer therapy potential and its worth the risk to see if that comes off.
So, 14-21 days to see if there is Bams news (there must be something within that time frame surely?), or maybe more news on our covid test. Time will tell.

Jd its a fair point about "less developed" economies, but I think what is true about their ability to vaccinate will be true about their ability or desire to test too. Testing is a not a particularly cost effective way to combat this, as you just keep having to test all the time. Once vaccinated, its done. So economies who don't have the luxury of printing money might try and save on testing and wait/save for a one off vaccination?

Assuming the Brexit bill passes the current Govt will want to capitalise on what they will see as a potential sea change for their poll ratings. Which is covid. I have said before that all that matters, all that has ever mattered to this govt, was that the NHS was not "over whelmed" and it did not matter how many people have to die for that to be true. (look at the decision to send old people back to their care homes with the disease at the start. (old people take longer to get well. They are not known as bed blockers for nothing.) Heartless? you bet, but that's what's been happening. Stroke, heart attacks, cancer , all of it, all of that loss and suffering so as to keep beds open for covid patients.
So politically, brexit done, covid next and its good timing (and no I don't believe in coincidence), Vaccinate the old and vulnerable, I don't know how many that it is? 10m 15m? and not 2 doses, just one for speed. The second one can be whenever. (again I don't know about the oxford one but Pfizer gives 91% efficacy with the first shot and it rises to 95% for the second dose. So why in the face of this fast spread would you not double the people you can give over 90% safety to?
The window is closing very fast, yes testing is going to be necessary in the background but the adds are all ready on tv, "have a jab and off you go on your hols", bio passports will be here by the summer. Vaccination is going to go ballistic right away literally from now.
My prediction is that within 4 weeks (end of jan) there will be enough old and infirm vaccinated for hospital admissions to be falling quickly. That leads to the govt "being in control", which leads to society returning to normal. That's the message that's coming.
Assuming AVCT get a test out in the next 2-4 weeks (which still seems an ask right now), then revenue could still be in the tens of millions annually (maybe?), which will be great and will underpin the SP for now, but millions of tests a day? I don't know., I don't think so. If you think I am underestimating testing (and maybe I am, I don't know), Wait till the US gets the bit between its teeth on vaccination.
Anyway, its all politics and testing is now yesterdays political solution

So you'd think we could break 123p then!!!!

I would take a much more modest 125p right now!

its a mugs game this predictive malarkey, but its Christmas....135p today

I had given up on this announcement coming this quarter because it is so late in the day. I was troubled because AVCT had trailed its release so often and that if it was delayed it would further undermine the veracity of AVCT informing the market of expected news releases in advance of their arrival.
So this great news in itself and what it may do for cancer sufferers in the future, is also important imo for the short term as it starts tp help restore AS's credibility within the city community.
Well done AVCT, this potential breakthrough is so much more important than the covid stuff as Tony so movingly put it.
And thank you Tony for telling us, If you want us to bombard AS with emails to get you on the trial just say the word.

Vegas, it might not matter, this might just be way of getting the lorries to their homes. The test accuracy is perhaps not the issue. We can say they have had a test, here is the result, on your way, and the French say ok.
I don't know, but it all seems a bit over the top seeing as the strain is in Europe already. Maybe there is a bit of "brexit" in this from the French, letting the UK know how they can mess it all up anytime they want? A warning shot of how difficult they can make life for the UK from Jan 1st?

Very true Afam, buts its inextricably linked to the other side of that particular coin.

Ok Phantom, I was just trying to make a different point clearer but failed. Forget the bridge between buyer and seller.

RD, exactly.

BB, Its just basic supply & demand. Yes there has to be demand ( obviously) but if there is demand to buy, it is the seller that controls the price. and likewise if there is demand to sell its the buyer that controls the price.
Its just what the broker does, matches buys to sells, that's what L2 is all about.
Nuet was all for buying at sub 100p last week, and fair play, so why as buyer, did he not get his deal done? It wasn't Neut that wanted to pay 110p, but that's what he had to pay as no seller would let him have it for less.
Sure it takes 2 to tango but if you have something valuable and people are clamouring to buy it, you decide at what price it goes for

I think the share swings show how nervous the market is right now. The fact that 2 profit updates have failed to move the SP means that the market will decide when they either ses the actuals, or maybe today, enough evidence of actuals from similar businesses to transpose over to EVE.
In any event long may it continue but we could see a doubling from here in results week!... (sorry, a bit rampy there...) Merry Xmas to all!