Member Info for wyndrum

The various posts on where any individual here might sell is interesting I think. Lots here are saying "why would you sell now (today) when much a much higher SP will be avail in the next 12 months.
Firstly none of us know what the SP will be that far in the future , so that's one thing.
Secondly, the only reason an individual might be able to sell in 12 months time at say, 400p per share is because, the buyer at 400p, thinks the share price is going higher still, so why would you sell at 400p if its going to increase?
The argument might be "I bought when it was 70p and I want to bank the money now" (nothing wrong with that).
So what's the diff in someone selling today having bought at 45p 2 months ago?
(I get there are different levels of gain in my example, but hopefully you get my point.)

I understand your argument Res and am not disagreeing with your analysis, I just don't accept the premise that it invalidates TA principles.
Also just for complete clarity. I simply invented the figures I used in the previous post just as a fictitious example to explain my point. These are not predictions based on whats happened thus far.
I am not arguing that TA can forecast takeover offers or any out of the blue news by the way, but in our discussion the news is already out there that AGL is waiting for FDA approval, so whatever that is worth is being translated into the SP. The nearer to the date the news arrives will probably see more people getting on board gambling on a short term reward (Greed) and the SP may well increase. At some prior stage, just like Dan did, some people will see a profit in their account and will sell, just in case FDA approval is not granted (Fear).
These 2 emotions are very powerful and predictable and sometimes the MM's will move the SP a bit (if they can) to trigger these predictable responses to certain stimuli.
Most chart patterns are used with indicators for further clarification. There is one called the RSI (relative strength Indicator) which has a range from 0-100 and broadly speaking if it falls below 20 than a share is over sold and likely to rebound and if over 80 suggests that the stock is overbought and likely to pull back. Its not cast in stone, but an odds game if you like. I find this indicator to be pretty reliable, fwiw.
Yesterdays close at 94p is showing an RSI of 80.03, so it is just entering overbought territory and is starting to shape up to having a down day fairly soon so as to let the RSI unwind so as to allow further rises to take place. (That fall however might only be a couple of pence). Now, I get all of this from the SP, not from any knowledge about potential FDA approval and any other co. info.
The best analogy I know of is that of a professional Poker Player. He can deduce from what he has in his hand and what cards are displayed on the table, the odds of him winning and bets accordingly. It does not mean he wins every hand but assuming he is good at what he does, he will win more than he loses.
Bit of a ramble but what else have we got to do today.... (and apologies if this irritates in which case I will be happy not to post anything about TA in future)
Cheers

I understand the point Res, but there is a disconnect between the SP and the Company. The SP does not directly reflect the company's value. Lets just say that with FDA approval the SP has a value of 300p (we don't know this yet) so while waiting for the announcement the SP climbs to 400p in expectation. The FDA approval is granted and the shares fall to 300p. Buy on the rumour sell on the news. (not saying that will happen) but its very common in many instances and it does not matter what the "news" is. So I accept that the SP will be driven by news but that is the case of all stocks.
The difference I think can be summed up best by this:
Fundamental analysis (and I have no beef with this approach), looks at everything the company is doing with cash/forecasts/sales/assets etc, and attempts to translate that into a valuation.
I get all that information without looking at the figures by simply looking at the SP. TA (to me), has already distilled all that info into the current SP. As its people that buy and sell shares it is therefore their actions & reactions that determine the SP. Which is why shares can be undervalued and over valued. As crowds, under the right conditions, tend to be predictable, it allows the opportunity to recognise previous actions being repeated in the future. And that is irrespective of what the company does and its particular set of circumstances. (well, that's my angle on Angle (see what I did there? ;0))

Jelenko, you make a fair point. I would only say that (and actually as it turns out AGL is a good example) that "timing" your entry point can make a big difference to your overall returns. If (for arguments sake people just buy in in now at a 100p but a week later could have bought in at 90p than that's a 10% improvement on their eventual return.
of course predicting the future is … well impossible... but there are methods out there through TA, that highlight probabilities of future prices. So right now it has not topped out so any pullback in price prediction is premature, however all shares at some stage retreat back from previous highs, so we would all like to pay less than we have to I guess so you will always find a few that pore over the minute ups and downs to try and get an edge.
Each to his own as always, but the passage of time is often ignored when looking at returns on investments and yet it is one of the fundamental pillars of judging whether such an investment is deemed a success or not.

80p is a stretch I think as a pull back. There is an argument that fall from here could revisit 82p as a floor or resistance point but the scale of that from here would suggest a reversal of the upward trend rather than a pull back.
So far the fall back on a daily basis has not started yet as today closed higher than yesterday so chart-wise looking for a likely place for the SP to unwind to is premature. On a daily chart you can see 92p as a mild pullback point but as I say it has to fall first so we can see where the most recent high stopped at, and as I said there is no confirmation we are there yet.

well fwiw I would try and kick that feeling out. Its emotion that drives prices, not rational thought. What you are experiencing is greed and that will cloud your judgement in the future. So don't indulge it.

By all means look back on the reasons why you sold and see if realistically you could have done it differently, so in future based on ...whatever...you don't make the same mistake again.

Darren< I would not beat yourself up at all over your decision. You bought, you made good profits and you sold. That trade is now completed.
The next trade you will decide when its the right time to buy based on your criteria. if it so happens to be AGL at 110p for instance, it does not matter, its a brand new trade based on your normal plan. It's just another trade. No need to look back.

Sparticus, careful what you say because it might bounce back to you. What exactly don't you understand?
I think from a chart perspective the action warrants further buying on my behalf. So i have bought some stock at a fraction over 140p.
However, at the same time the larger market, with such a relatively small increase in the SP does not, clearly at this time, conclude that the forthcoming test announcement is nailed on as AVCT,as opposed to the vast majority on this board who say the opposite.
Ok? so hopefully that explains it better and perhaps it does not make me an idiot. However if choose to believe that anyway, that's fine.
Timing the market (which is a hit and miss game), is however a very important art to learn (I am not inferring that I have it, I am just stating the obvious), as it can have a dramatic affect on returns over a long period.
If you get it right more often than wrong, returns tend to exceed LTB&H. But each to his own.

Tim, I actually don't know what that means, but (although it matters not a jot) I have never been out, always had a minimum of £50k in this stock and have traded anywhere between £40k and £60k since around November.
Just in case for any doubt, the SP action (which is the sum total of buyers and sellers) is presently not agreeing with the consensus here that it is us.
I have no idea either, but have decided that the 3rd break of 140p was "significant".
We'll see.

spread is very tight. added some at just over 140p so lets see if we hold on the break out.
You never know, maybe the Yanks will pile in....

Hi Bojo, always interests me what motivates buys & sells (the ole fear & greed push & pull) and at what level. As we are approaching all time highs it gets into much more unchartered territory as to when & where the top forms. You may well be correct at a symbolic figure of 100p. As always, time will tell.

Interesting tussle right now on the price action.
Its close to being (technically) overbought so there are sellers out there that seem to be holding out for a 94p selling price (and getting it.) On the other hand there is clearly a nervousness about getting out now because the upward trend is so strong.
Its finely balanced (and although I am quite happy to let this ride as is), any pullback looks likely to be only a couple of pence to around 92p before allowing a bit more spacer for further gains beyond where we are now. (just my opinion)

Thanks Pl, knew you could not help yourself.
I am not a genius and have never pretended to infer that I was but I do have a lot of experience of doing this and having made every trading mistake in the book over the years have had at least the smarts to learn from my own errors, which I am always willing to pass on those experiences just in case it helps someone, which is what most BB's are for. you know, exchange ideas and experiences to help. (Damn: ES, you are going to need to twist that to make sure everyone realises I am that ruthless trader you referred to.)
The reason I work: because I can and as I spend less than a couple of hours a week buying and selling it leaves me a lot of free time, and that free time often leads to over trading. ( I did use to do this full time some years ago but lost nearly everything, so learnt from my errors, restarted and now have a comfortable trading pot (about £150k). So, I have a nice job, with nice people that leaves me time in this particular environment to do both. lucky me.
And I like to spend it: Saving is only deferred spending so I tend not to worry too much about the future and try and get on with the present. it works for me. But who cares? most of you don't and why should you, and I would not have bothered with this post but you want to chime in with your imagined views on my personality, my social skills, my job, so I just, for the record have told you the truth but I dare say you won't believe me because you (having not met me), have already decided every facet it seems, of my life. Good for you lot.
(It reminds me how much length Wolves went to, to prove he had shares in AVCT and eventually having to post the share certificates it was grudgingly acknowledged that he was not a deramper after all. But it seems no lessons learned there either.)
Anyway. as much fun as this is for me I'll leave it here (cue PL75...)
I tell you this board is hilarious to outsiders. (Talk about take it too seriously!)

ES old pal, you simply don't know what you are talking about, so why say it? You and Pl always chime in to get the last word (which is actually the only reason I am posting this, as you two are so, so predictable. My last dozen posts have been expecting and knowing your responses, and therefore have just amused me from start to finish, so thanks both of you for that, really, I mean it. I have a couple of pals at work and I tell them what's coming and you and PL never disappoint).
You don't know when I sell or when or at what price I buy, so how can you possibly say what you do? You will be delighted , positively glowing inside to know, I have in fact, sold at higher levels and bought back in lower down and made over £15k for the smallest amount of work and effort. I know you care because you want to comment on my trading all the time, so rejoice with me. And don't worry about my "ruthlessness" because I don't think, and correct me If I am wrong, it affects you when I make a turn. It doesn't coincide with my posts because I am not as deluded as some here who think any post affects the SP and I always divorce my postings from my actions and only offer the occasional opinion on where I see the SP going, ( which funnily enough I have been pretty much spot on hence the profit), but I don't like to say too much because it just starts you off, and life is too short. Which, in a different environment we could have shared different ways of skinning the same cat. But you have decided, for the rest of this BB, for me not to go down that route.
(Please respond because my pals will be reading this I have told them what you will say)

I would be more reasonable Spartacus if you had not referred to me as "plumb" when you gave such a broad brush comment as to why the SP is at or below the release of such a great RNS. To suggest traders get out of a stock within minutes of a great RNS and then continue to sell it down when any day now the TU will come out with probably more good news is not a typical traders MO.
And in truth I don't know what you meant. You claimed the fall was attributable to traders who think (presumably) the stock was over bought once it went over 130p. There was neither chart nor indicator factors that suggested the SP would fall. it is in a gentle upward trend presently.
I don't find trading stressful by the way and if you are doubling your pot every year you are doing extremely well and clearly LTB&H works for you. and good luck to you as well (I have held AVCT longer than you which I find slightly ironic) but it gets tiresome that somehow traders decisions make them less worthwhile than "well researched" investors but whatever prejudices float your various boats, then feel free.
From my POV its like LTB&H saying "I still go by horse everywhere, more reliable than those new fangled cars you use".
It never ceases to surprise me the lack of respect for others views on this (and others boards), The world is an ugly enough place most of the time, quite why it has to spill over onto to something as genteel as exchanging views on an investment board stock is sad, really, very sad.

Also and just because I only came across this share from another board (and I do have a holding in it): is XSG.
Chartwise it looks ready on balance to break new highs and is due an update in March where it is expected manufacture will be confirmed installing their tech in washing machines.
There is no timeline on this, it will just pop if and when the good news is released. it is overdue already due to delays from Covid. so its been a bit of a buy and forget type share but like AGL, its time seems now, to be very near. Sorry its a bit of post but might be worth some research?

Thanks Guys because I am aware you do not need to divulge this type of thing.

And fingers crossed, that your patience pays off (If there is any justice it will do!) GLA

Blimey.... 7 years.... if you don't mind me asking, what did you buy at?

Sparticus, Glad you have access to every profile of every person who is buying and selling. And that every one is a trader.
Which I guess means, no investor is buying... that's odd isn't it?

Believe me ES when I say, I could care less about your Faux sympathy for me. You simply come across to me as deranged
I am not the most prolific poster here by any stretch but have been singled out by a select few to be constantly abused. You being far and away the most vile. (PL is just tedious and transparent)
And its not me by the way that is questioning this investment, (show me a post where I disparage AVCT), it is the market. The SP is now at the same level it was prior to the Mologic RNS. Why is that do you think? Opps, Sorry, we are not allowed to speculate according to the Mother Superior.