Member Info for wyndrum

Don't know if you top sliced or sold up or what D, but I looked at ABDX today at the chart looks good here for a top up/buy in?

The logic of charts RD, is that all the info out there is already reflected in the current SP. So in AVCT's case the "big" RNS that might drop, is already in the SP. The reason the SP is so low is that the market no longer trusts AVCT's forecasted timelines and also that the market for testing (at least in the UK) is both diminishing and crowded, reducing previous forecasts of potential income.

So yes, if a better than expected RNS does drop then the SP's reaction could and is likely to be, more dramatic than if the SP was still around 275p. The SP reflects the risk reward and if you "believe in charts, then its no coincidence that the SP is hovering at this level as it is proving to be a very strong resistance to further SP progress.

I think you are right, if/when HUA is granted the SP will go beyond 155p , my guess is nearer to 200p or just under. If actual sales figures of the test are reported at the same time and demand is reasonable, then we should be well into 200p plus probably around 235p.

These figures are not as arbitrary as they might appear. Previously on expectation of the same news some months ago, this is where the market valued AVCT, so its reasonable to assume they will do so again. To go above our All Time High, then a big order is necessary (govt or major airline type of thing) which again, was the expectation at the time.

The Dark Horse is AV6000k but there is no expectation of any reports on progress until at least year end. If some positive comment was made in the TU, then that would I imagine, re-calibrate the charts!

PAHOO, I said mass testing was over when we were vaccinated back in january i think .... Guess what....I said we would not get a test out while there was free stock available back in march predicting July for our test.....I have raised the question on how much would home users be prepared to pay to take a test, suggesting prices would have to fall as its now a free for all. (Since then AS himself has walked back profit margins on the test due to competitive pressures.)

As for TA, Its an odds game ,what is more likely than not. I have always stated that in my "5000 word essays" so people like you don't have to mis represent what i say or have said.

As for Ophidian specifically this is the third time is has used TA to make a prediction that has not materialised in the last few months since he has returned to this BB and i struggle to see his reasoning when looking at the chart whether its on fib retrace, elliot wave or this reversed H&S pattern.

I hope Ophidian is better at FA than TA. (I couldn't see the reverse H&S on various time intervals and time charts.)

So far his record has been poor on info that he has posted here.

The only figure for those that care is a close of day of at least 141p to indicate further gains more likely than not.

PR, I had over £200k (78000 shares) tied up in AVCT at the time and started selling off from the high 250p's. I have made decent profit from AVCT thus far and have made good profit on the recent rally when i traded from 102p.

I get we have different timelines on this stock. I am not content to sit on my hands when my methodology suggests falls are more likely than gains. However due to the potential Avacta pipeline of tie-ups and possible govt intervention re: LFT, and even a bid coming in, has made me always keep a core holding so as not to miss out completely if such an unexpected event occurred.

I think the current trials offer great potential for a SP re-rating and I have long ago written off LFT income, so if it does arrive to me, that will be a very pleasant bonus that will be translated into a higher SP.

All I would say is that I think the market generally shares the same view which is why the SP is currently where it is and not 275p plus.

Yes Tim, good point, and what if when saying the SP was likely to fall if it broke down below 255p, wasn't a paid troll, but just someone who expressed their opinion too?

Oh God.... you mean we could actually debate both sides of the coin in the way that 5EP tried this morning?

Yes I have PR, at 129p average price plus further tops from 102p upwards. So what?

EGTP, Its not a moan, I was just highlighting the imbalance of this BB. The SP has fallen by over 60% from nearly 300p to 100p in a matter of a few weeks. The recent rally now is obviously welcome.

However it has been impossible to debate in any rational sense as to why this happened. It is fair to say that at this price, its a much better buy in, however the same posters were saying how 250p and more was a give away bargain at the time

When a SP falls so far so quickly its not "negative" to discuss why and where it might fall further to, and to highlight what risks still apply, given that the previous "well researched" info have thus far for some, provided high loses either actual or on paper.

This is an investment and timing of purchase is very important to maximise gains, irrespective of the individual's time frame.

Thanks for sharing D. It does sound positive on the supply front, and if that can be maintained going forward then that must be good news, especially if other mattress makers are suffering from supply issues.

The next thing to test my marbles is that previously CC has issued profit increase updates and this time she hasn't.

Now... does that mean it will be steady as she goes... (please God, not another non-event), or has she realised that her "better-than-expected-profit" updates do more harm than good for the SP and therefore this time, is keeping her powder dry and wants to do a "Dunelm" and genuinely surprise the market?

So many questions, so few answers....

BITL, I'm not sure what you don't understand. This "news" was hailed as fantastic by many posters. 5EP tried to put it into a less emotional and balanced context and was derided for it, and yet the SP has not moved at all. So I am highlighting the fact that it seems strange that nobody is now talking about it and even, heaven forfend, acknowledging that maybe 5EP's view was correct.

Hopefully nobody was taken in and bought first thing this morning based on the previous estactic posts

D: SXS, well at least its decent size! ha ha! If its going to retrace and I think it more likely than not, then 380p ish would be the target I would think (imo)

CI: Meanwhile EVE to me, is just in a range so this is just noise to ignore presently, (3.6p close indicates a move to 5p so fingers crossed that's the direction it goes in)

GLA

I can buy 135.96

Pedro: "Boo has gone from 386 to 270 and the ftse100 gone from 5750 to 7200 in the year time frame.Tells a story!"

Tells me that my pet peeve about Boo NOT following the indices is right...... :0))

Thanks for the reminder CI. The £.7m extra in stock holding could well be an astute move.

PR, if short term price moves don't bother than no, tomorrow is no big day. Personally the longer this saga goes on the more attention I pay to this particular company chart. Jam tomorrow does not pay the bills today. But each to his own.

Agent B, its finished on the resistance line. Needs to break through as this is the third time it has closed at this price. (we need to close above here tomorrow to transfer the 140p celling to a floor.)
Big day tomorrow.

Its clearer to me now that the stock shortages that car manufacturers are suffering from in particular as an example, are much, much, much more widespread. On reflection I think this is now the biggest concern the market probably has.

I am sure this potential supply problem will loom large in the TU and the market will be paying very close attention to what EVE have to say and may well explain the lack of SP progress in the run-up to the TU itself

If its not one thing ........

or perhaps AVCT never had remotely the manufacturing capacity?

you can keep banging on about 137p if you want but there have been 2 closes at 140p recently before the SP fell back.

Close and hold of at least 141p or above to show a new (recent) high and potential breakout.

D, I am sure you are right, plus as Inch and Surfie, will attest to, it gets pretty soul destroying seeing your investment go down. Many will simply bail to cut losses.

I believe you are still in profit but how would you feel if you had bought at 7-8p?

I know i bang on and on and on, about it, but the psychological pressure on looking at losses every day/week will do collective heads in! Selling is the only way then to relieve that genuine misery.