Member Info for wyndrum

yes ND, its still doing the rounds and I only refute it on principle that such idiocy and downright lies are routinely posted here.

And I said, only for brevity, that we "broadly " share the same views

Sperenza you have in fact no "proof" for your wild and false accusation. and because you keep peddling this rubbish you at the same time try and probably with some ,succeed in discrediting the points others you refer to make.

Your "analysis" seems to rely on 3 posters (Ray ND and me) being the same person simply because very broadly we share similar but not all, the same views on AVCT . So what are others meant to believe, 3 posters out of 100 plus here are a bit more objective on the info coming out of AVCT over the last months and that somehow therefore they must be one person and this one person has manufactured through "fear" (which none have admitted to acting on anything said here), the SP collapse and that even though their forecasts and concerns have proved largely correct, somehow they should be filtered and ultimately banned from the board.

Trouble is you are so focussed on the "messenger" you can't evaluate what has been in front of your eyes for some time.

Bonkers, completely bonkers.

Hi Ben,

Nice to hear from you.

Thanks for letting me know.

I hope it is a help!

GL

Ah SGF! how are you?

No Its not for me per se, but since you were kind enough to highlight it, I keep an eye on it and it so happens today the chart looks ok at this level so i bought a very modest amount purely on the chart and will jump ship just as quick if the SP falls to a level where it demonstrates my decision was wrong.

Thats the thing for me. one day i don't want to buy it, the next i do. It drives many mad but my reasoning is based on squiggilly lines and not the vagaries of the fundamentals of the business. ha ha :0))

No offense anyone and i am not here to kick off on TA, its just a quick reply to an ole mucka

GLA

Chart suggests the fall is over. just needs to say above 3.02p and it should be fine

Thanks

GJ : What test is your company using?

I thoght that the purchase of debs was to get an immediate leg up into the highly profitable make up and perfume market.

My guess is is if they do make a fist of the brand re clothing they will run with it (obviously) but I would more likely think that if clothes sales are flat due to the reputation of debs prior to collapse, that that side of it will be dropped.

With Xmas coming the timing is excellent for the cosmetic side. I think the results will highlight this aspect and future driver of profits and growth beyond clothes.

Looks a shrewd move to me. DYOR

"We are where we are SP wise because that's the way the markets work not because of anything Avacta have or have not done."

Thats not true Bella, the SP reflects the lack of reported order volume from the LFT test based on what the AVACTA BoD had been promising over the last 12 months.

The fall is exactly because of what Avacta to date, have failed to do.

My posts now are being routinely deleted due to presumably a concerted effort of a some here to get me off the BB

if any of you read them (2) this morning you will be aware I was not rude or abusive or defamatory, I was trying to discuss risk reward. (The last one had 9 recs i think.) There was nothing in the content that allowed it to be removed.

It seems some or many of you have been duped into this ridiculous narrative that I am either in a boiler room, paid to deramp or have multiple alliases here. All of which is untrue. (You can check my posting history over a number of shares I hold)

(i posted yesterday that I bought some more at 112p based on a TA perspective.)

I would also highlight as I may not be allowed to post further, that over the last 15 months based on events, that Vaccines would be the main driver of the govt at speed which implied mass testing was going to finish, that AVCT's test was going to be delayed and that the delay in test release would mean a much more crowded market which in turn will affect revenue and cause a price war. These were all months in front of the official confirmation.

I have pretty accurately picked SP movements both up and down.

So all in all my record has been passable both in analysis and SP prediction.

yet I am no longer able to post.

Sujood on the other hand ........... but thast ok, its just a bit of fun.. Thanks goodness money is not involved.

GLA

Good post tim,

Thats why these BB's (not just this one) are pretty limited in their help. Its just a way of killing time until new info surfaces.

CC's too cool a CEO to do that Yanis. The SP will react to the figures. If she bought, sucked in people to follow her lead and then the market is disappointed with the figures and the SP falls, then what would you think of our beloved Girl?

She's astraight shooter and more power to her elbow for it.

Thats my point Oaks, I don't know, i can't possibly, and I won't waste time guessing on an event that hasn't happened and may not ever.

And the whole point is, say we do secure our £2m per month for 24 months. great (I mean that would be GREAT!) but it won't happen in a vacuum, the market will price in potential increase in sales beyond the 2m per month, and then the market will also knock the SP every month as the 24 months gets ticked off in the calendar and the income will ever more shortly stop, but on the other hand the AVA trial will be nearer to completion and so the market expectation on that will affect the SP. There may be more tie ups, Deepverge might get some sales. etc etc

All or none of the above might happen
Its impossible ever, to value the company in question at any given time.

All I care about is trying to buy a stock and then sell it above what I paid for it

I am really not kidding when I say I don't care about Avacta the company because I don't know what's going on with it. I can't react to a bad RNS, because it will be too late.

I have to find another method at which to try and profit from companies that offer potentially good reward and the see if the risk is small enough to justify the risk.

Valuation is arbitrary. The SP isn't. it is what it is, every second of the trading day.

And for me therein lies the solution.

I think GJ the market "valued" AVCT at around 40p prior to the pandemic. So all things being equal the LFT income is valued today, at about 70p, but there have been developments since with the AVA600 trial starting, the cash raise and the the LFT for sale as well as more tie ups, so what's the balance now?

I would suggest that LFT income has been discounted heavily since, because of the previous delays and non-events.

I think when you start to have this type of discussion it becomes impossible to value the company. As you rightly say do the other strands of the business remain at zero value until completely de-risked. Well, yes I guess it does, because it could fail and if it does what is the SP worth then?

You take a coherent, different view, so which one of us is right? It becomes subjective and based on opinion rather than being objective.

The best we can say is Objectively if all goes well and certain milestones are achieved then the SP will rocket but if they don't, it wont.

Risk reward is a different conversation entirely but it is risk reward that influences and drives the SP and again is open to a wide set of opinions but theoretically the market, through supply & demand, will come to a conclusion. But that conclusion will vary from day to day depending on what the majority feel about risk & reward at any given time, and not just about AVCT. Other macro influences will affect the R/ R relationship

AVCT are still the same company doing the same thing that they were 3 months ago yet the SP has collapsed. So whats changed?

This is why its not only impossible to "value" a company at any given time but futile.

If you want to take a long term view then by all means give me a timeline and a share price and try and justify that objectively.

we actually have 4 pillows in total (two memory foam which for me are too firm and recently two much softer ones (I don't know what they are called because Mrs W did the ordering and spontaneously felt that the £700 mattress was not enough so just carried on...)

Anyway, these are meant to be some sort of pillows which are good for if you sleep on your side. I don't know... the upshot is these are fine and comfortable. I am falling asleep just typing this....zzzzzzz

I do GJ a bit yes, know how to value a company.

What evidence do you have that 2m sales per month LFT are is being achieved? What is the profit margin? What if (for whatever reason) HUA is not granted?

How do you know cash burn is still at £2m per month?

How long will testing last at the rate of selling a minimum of 2m tests per month? If it has a shelf life of say 2 further years that affects the valuation, does it not?

The programs AVCT are developing will be transformational if they are successful. What objective evidence do you have so far on the AVA600k trial?

It seems to me you are valuing AVCT based on assumptions that there is currently no objective way of calibrating.

You are hoping that it will all turn out ok in a market where small Bio-pharmas have a poor track record of success but the ones that do crack it can do extremely well. Lets hop that AVCT are one of the successful ones.

(The main point of course is that the SP never matches the "valuation" of the company, it measures something completely different and that's what I focus on.)

This is only 1 order but we got the premium hybrid delivered with plenty of updates on the way to let Mrs W know exactly what was going on. (it actually came forward a couple of days).

No damage and sprang into shape almost immediately with very little time needed for the mattress to assume its correct shape and dimensions (I mention this only because some reports say it takes a little while for that to happen.)

Plus whatever the figures are in this update, the Wyn household have done their little bit (she got 2 pillows as well....) :0))

ZZ, I expressed my alarm with how relaxed the board was with his posts written in such a way as to suggest inside knowledge and was told to shut up as its just a bit of fun.

I guess as long as everybody is just as happy now, no harm done.

Kallu, "This is basics of investment mate, past is no guarantee of the future."

And yet you site Buffet as the way to go. You are only basing your decision to use the Buffet system based on its HISTORICAL success.

Likewise it makes a mockery of you continually glossing over ABF's abject SP performance over the last 5 years.

sigh.....

Oh, I see, well yes, ok.

(I just bought some at 112p) I have left more dry powder for the end of day.