Member Info for wyndrum

the Chart looks no better for ABF I'm afraid.

Its pretty important it bounces back tomorrow otherwise further falls look likely because the next support is down at 1728p

Hi D, I don't "follow" Zak, but do look at the links when posted on shares I am in. I have never been able to confidently (for my own personal use), predict timelines for increases (or falls), I think the reason is that the SP moves most days (all stocks) and every day its making changes to the forecast and as a result throws predictive timings out, so i don't worry too much about exactly when as long as I am correct in my own (general) forecast.

To me a chart is a chart and its as clear as day what it says and that normally is the SP could go up or down...... but there are usually clear signs as to what is more likely which is why Zak can just knock out half a dozen charts every 5 minutes... its really not that complicated.

As for SNG, somebody had the temerity to highlight it on Friday on the AVCT board before the nutjobs there had the thread deleted. I went across to look at it as it co-incidentally broke a resistance and had to make a quick decision, so bought in on that basis. Bought more today as it fell very kindly back to that support. (In my experience its normally a good sign when the market gives you a second bite at the cherry. (Not all MM's are bastards....)

Also added more to EVE today once 3.65p was hit.

Good day today I think for further gains.

The slight fall from Friday close just takes a little pressure off the RSI. The SP can always go one of two ways but I think it more likely that 175p will be brushed aside pretty soon with 190p the " real" target. (I am crap with timings....... that's not all I am crap with obviously, but just on TA... ...I am crap with timings)

as the price moves up (in this case) so it forces the hands of those who were waiting. As they start to quickly buy for fear of having to buy even higher, so it snowballs. 175p back in the frame I think. (the "fear" is 175p could get taken out quickly as it did on Friday when it moved to 182p in a blink. No guarantee it will come back down if it does pop.....

I'm hurt D, I'm not gonna lie......... :O))

GJ, "What is causing this 170p resistance?"

Nothing, I don't think... Its just noise while it is in the 163p-175p trading range. This is pretty much bang centre in the middle of no-mans land so a lot are sitting on their hands waiting for a more decisive move before committing.

dummy sell at 3.80p..........

SYN, its a small point but traders don't have to be just "Day Traders" Day trading on stocks is very very difficult for various reason, but the criteria to trade a stock is volatility, large market cap and tight spreads. Almost no aim stock (or even FTS100 stock) meets all the criteria. The other pre-requisite is that you ideally need a market that you can get out of at any time so that stops can play a part. Again, no stock can do that. Day trading is really only for very large indices.

To trade stocks a much higher degree of risk is therefore involved and that risk can be offset a little in broader timeline's.

Most "day traders" fail not necessarily because of TA per se as a system, but mostly their ineptitude and picking the wrong product in the first place.

I have (fwiw) bought more today on the 163p support.

As I am new here I am somewhat behind the curve in all the previous postings so apologies in advance if i ask questions that have already been done to death

well, its 3.8p to buy, so thats interesting. we need a just a bit more and some buying at 3.85/3.9p to really get the TA gods juices flowing....

fwiw Keith News and charts go hand in hand. The Sp was trading between 7.15p and 8.3p until developments started to move the SP in mid March. This gave 8.3p as the support. After the disappointing drill results the SP bottomed out (so far) at 8.39p thus leaving the 8.3p support intact. As i said earlier last week I think, I would be a buyer here on the chart rather than a seller and that still holds. (in fact its be reinforced a little by the slight up-tic in the price.

So although we have had RNS's the chart still gives indications as to what is most likely (imo), if it does fall through 8.3p then I see 7p as the next support.

But from a news POV, then it looks like HE1 are in a better place now than they were when the SP was 8p (ish) back in march. They have a lot more data from the drill and in hindsight, I think DM hoped to get lucky using a drill at the very limit of its capability, but although not successful it has "proved" that its worth going on and therefore with all the new added data and still plenty of cash in the bank then why wouldn't the SP be ahead of where it was in march when the drill contractors were named?

Anyway, if you like TA, you don't "need" all this background, the chart tells you all you need to know to make a risk assessment. But that tends to be a bit controversial, but the 2 strands of research always match up eventually. Just my 2 cents.

Well, well.... Chart-wise it closed at 3.60p. next week should be interesting (we have had a few falters at 3.5p so this is positive but a close above 3.6p will be encouraging for further advances.)

In an only upward SP world, the next TA targets would be 3.80 then followed by 4.2p. if we bypass some in one go which is perfectly possible then, 4.9p hoves into view and if EVE is on a real tear then its 5.35p.... but first things first....3.8p.....

of course you can trade this (traders just don't sell you know) :0)

Well thats 175p hit. will be very good news if it holds/ closes above that tonight.

Don't know what you guys are like with TA. If its not your thing i will butt out

But.. once 163p went today then the break out was on . As long it holds and closes today above it then the next stop will be to test the recent highs of 175p and then all being well, on to 190p

Ophidian: Really? you posted 2 days ago when the SP was 141p that the pattern was completed and next stop was 150 plus.
(no caveat about it falling), then it was not about the next 5 minutes suggesting you are taking a longer time frame (but not saying what that time frame)is) and now with the SP between 5-7% lower you hope a bottom has formed and expect FOMO to lift the price.

Maybe it will , but I wait for end of day close as i take a longer term approach, you clearly look at intra day but then reckon its not about the next 5 minutes but to conclude future price movement on intraday prices indicates a much more short term play doesn't it?

I'm not reading that much into it either DJ, just that its not a coincidence.

Inchy.... how are you feeling today? (Seriously)

well done D, another little nuggett you have unearthed.

So here's some conformational bias:

EVE are obviously doing the rounds in newspaper articles and interviews prior to the results etc. I think CC is only doing this to highlight EVE to the wider community because at the same time the results are going to be good. (No point in pushing a company that's going down the tubes...). I considered the argument that the results could be bad and this round of PR could be desperation, but I don't think so, because she is too relaxed, the product is good and I think when the good business press arrives on the back of the TU then it will join up with the PR push now...

Like I said Conformational bias...... GLA

no Tim, that's how you interpret it with your bias.

You work on the false premise that I am trying to influence people on this board to either buy or sell because I believe that will make a difference to the SP.

If you read my posts without that false assumption, your view of them would change,

The interesting bit is you probably won't change your mind, even though when you look at AVCT's history (RNS's and interviews), you will see its quite reasonable to have been vey positive, and then with the missed timelines, less positive.

Its just as easy to be very positive now on all the posts here doing the normal 2+2, joining dots, looking up the employment records of board members, jobs available etc etc. Accept we have all been on this merry-go-round for 15 months and hardly (SP wise) any further forward, so its it subtly negative to say that or simply just stating a fact?

It's the readers bias that makes the assumptions, not necessarily the facts.

As it is right now, I do think the SP has further to climb, but what do i know? if the the TU is disappointing I might well say, that's it I'm out... all in the space of a few weeks but so what? as the picture changes, so does my view. Others will stay here through thick and thin in the hope sooner or later it all comes good. Great, no skin off my nose and good luck.

Rd, "if all the information is already in the SP then it should only move if the information changes. I can see it would settle in a range but if it breaks out of that it would be because info has changed. Resistance to me just reflects simple supply and demand - the market has decided SP= £X - as SP falls more buyers appears, as it rises more people sell. That point will change with info that influences valuation."

yes, that's broadly it and the reason why humans can still make money out of this is that the SP does not reflect the value of the company, just the perception put on it by other people. It might sound semantic but its not. The SP was 275p, now its 138p, but how has AVACTA the company , changed in these last few weeks? The SP rises on the expectation of further rises to come as people buy-in in front of news. If that news disappoints then people sell and the SP goes down. It all revolves around the "predictability of Crowds". If you believe that under stimulation you can forecast peoples likely reaction, then in this area of money, fear and greed are 2 very powerful emotions that are relatively easily manipulated, to engender forecastable reactions.

That's the theory anyway. (All charts are, are a graphical representation of people buying and selling.)

Because AVCT by its business nature could be so volatile, it is ripe for extreme emotional trading.

I could not bear to be out in the early days, expecting the mother of all RNS's to drop at any time. (fear and greed).
Then by November as the info was developing,I did not want to keep so much money tied up in it, so started to trade it on support and resistance lines, and remarkably, it has proved to be quite predictable, which has genuinely surprised me, and there have been a few RNS's in and along the way.

And that's the other thing people who don't use or like TA don't fully appreciate: The pattern changes every day as new price action plays out. So what might have been a prediction last week might not be relevant this week. This seemingly constant Flip Flopping to LTH's particularly, drives some of them mad. But to a TA person, its just what it is. "last week it was a sell, this week its a buy"

It does take quite an emotional detachment to trade successfully and the reason i think most fail at it, is not the practise of TA itself, but simply the "Traders" don't have that emotional detachment to execute their strategy's.