Member Info for wyndrum

There are paid rampers on this site and FTS is one of them along with a few others.

A post starts and differing views expressed and by virtue of the difference, some will be perceived as potentially unhelpful to the SP.

FTS jumps into action by doing nothing other than personally abusing the poster which , like a high line press in football , triggers the other usual suspects to put in their abuse as well. This leads to it being reported and as result, more often than not due to the amount of abusive posts, the whole thread is then deleted so no one can read the original views.

Why else would FTS et al post, just simply be abusive, knowing, absolutely knowing, it will get reported and removed and also sooner or later end up being banned. And yet they manage very easily to get back under a new post name just a few days later.

Sperenza, yes, you are completely wrong in your assumptions due to an inability to understand what you read

Speranza, ND and I are not the same person. (Why would we be, if we just parrot each others views. what would be the benefit to post the same thing twice?

(I know applying logic is going to be hard for you given you can't understand what you read either but I'll try and help)

I was not discrediting Poiroit, I was simply making the point that once Poiriot as done his digging others then speculate as to what it might mean. I laboured the point and used Poiriot as the example exactly because he shows lateral thinking in his approach to trying to discover new information which is admirable.

I get heavily criticised on my unpopular views and they are rebutted often simply because they are speculation. But this awful trait of "speculation" is accepted when the views are the ones the majority want to hear.

I have not attacked MM at all! Show me where you think I have? I simply reminded posters here that even MM suggests this is a "high risk" share. I was agreeing with him as is clear in my post, not attacking him!

Ophidian, has recently come back to this BB and has made 4 predictions over the last few weeks/months on the direction of the SP and has been wrong every time. I have re-iterated that I believe he has done it in good faith but his record is poor. and I think it is worth highlighting for the very reason he is a very well respected poster here.

Further I think it is also worth highlighting that to post that HUA has been granted to Medusa and that production has now started and sales will commence by this end of this month is either just his opinion or must be insider trading as no RNS has followed this revelation. I hope he is right but it seems odd to me that this has not been officially reported either by Medusa or indeed AVCT. But his post is completely unambiguous.

What are posters supposed to do with that info, and indeed his tweet last night that has been posted here? buy on it? why would you take the word of a stranger (and I am sure he does not react to others stranger's opinions/views), that can't be verified and he will not discuss?

If there is to be no reaction to it, ie don't act on it, then why post it?

If he is right however then we should basically put every last penny we own on the stock at this ludicrous low price, shouldn't we? What are you going to do with that info? Ignore it or act on it?

Me too Surfie, me too.

I have been in and out of this over the years and done just about ok but the time delay eventually made me use the modest holding I had elsewhere to get a better return. Its turned out to be a lucky move as the SP has fallen back quite away since.

But hopefully the next 6 months should be instructive. Fingers crossed anyway. :0))

Vegas, ok fair enough but are you telling me that TESLA are the norm? Or to put it another way, do you look out for companies who's SP has gone through the floor and buy them? As I say fair enough you have produced one that contradicts my belief. But on balance my experience is SP's don't fall by this amount on good news. Its always been a reliably good red flag for me . I might miss a TESLA (but by not buying I did not lose anything), but it has saved me a ton of money over the years.

Ok Neut, but I don't have a game, I just respond to posts and air my thoughts. Too many here obsess over perceived personalities and seem to miss the bigger picture.

Why do you think the SP collapsed? Why hasn't their been any major deals inked yet? why was their a delay straight away with Calibre sales? Why hasn't overseas manufacture been put in place yet (even though AS has mentioned this as a top priority for a year)? Why hasn't emergency home use been granted here or anywhere? Why hasn't the PR company been pushing the test? Why have there been delays with TT. What happened to ODX producing it? Are ABDX producing it now?

As I say filter away, but don't you think there just might be a problem with manufacture?

Neut, There was and still is, a short, Conifer sold off, the SP collapsed... all since we had a product to sell and you think its all gone ok behind the scenes?

My guess and its just that, just speculation, but I think there was no production when the test went on sale and when Calibre started to get some or even an order, then AVCT started to produce some, hence the delay and slow start.

Its very strange the tie-up with mologic for poor and middle income countries. You would want to get the test out yesterday wouldn't you? yet months on... not a peep. What are they waiting for?

I think there has been a problem with TT, something went wrong somewhere which is why we have heard nothing as again thats what AS does when things go wonky... no reports, just a throw away line that its no longer Saliva, or, Bams not really needed now, months after the event.

Like I say its just guesswork but those are the reasons for my guesses as the foundation for me is that the SP never lies. It does not in my estimation, fall 60 % on good news going on in the background......

I broadly agree CO,

the concern I guess I have currently is not the demand for tests per se, but whether or not it will be the AVCT test that will be chosen.

Because it is available throughout the UK and EU and has been for some months, I don't understand why there has been such little uptake. If now now, then why next week/next month next year? Professional use would allow every private hospital and Care Home in these countries to already have it. (let alone business, but i am assuming the care sector might be a bit more knowledgeable and discerning and therefore want the most accurate test.)

Do you really think China will take the AVCT test? Why hasn't NZ taken it already?

To be fair i have always said that should AVCT crack the global market then UK uptake is immaterial. I only cite the UK simply because I have a greater understanding of the environment that AVCT is trying to sell into. On that finger in the air basis, I extrapolate it out to- if the UK govt does not want it, why should I assume anyone else would?

Forget charting and TA and all that cobblers, all the delays, lack of "big" RNS orders, plus no LFT updates, coupled with a collapsing SP does suggest that there has been some sort of problem behind the scenes greater than maybe we realise?

Maybe not, but none of the above is conducive to presuming everything is or has, gone well over the last few months

The update should address these issues and the picture should then be a lot clearer. My expectations are low so hopefully I will be very pleasantly surprised.

Surfie, I have just seen your post: Are you still in?

CO, as i highlighted in an earlier post: How do you value AVCT? We have a test for sale for professional use. We have no idea what the take up has been nor what the profit margin is.
HUA is key i agree, but what if (and this is just a what if), what if when we get it , it coincides for a fair playing field if another 10 test being awarded home use as well?

(When I bought in the LFT (saliva) test was done and was just waiting for approval and manufacture (15 months ago) and would be out H3 or H4 at the latest, it didn't seem high risk then)

Its fine to put numbers on the various strands as you have done, but objectively you could double or halve them and so what? We simply don't have the information to make an informed judgement. That's high risk to me.

(High risk to me is that it has a decent chance losing 80% of my investment. Normally i stay away from them, but i got caught up in this one.)

As for long term ... I am personally wary of "long term" how long is that ? 12 months from here , 5 years, 10 years? That will vary for each individual. The only point i would make is that typically, the longer you look out time-wise, the less certain you can be of the result.

Infin, i said its binary in that the tech works or it doesn't and AVCT USP is that there is more than one tech to try out which increases the chances of success ( think).

All the positives come from one of the technologies being commercially successful. Myles himself now states that this is a high risk company....If all should fail (and many do at the final hurdle), then what?

I think the risk reward is worth it because if AVA600k works then the sky really is the limit. The fact the SP is at its placing price of 120p shows that the rest of the market accepts the risks involved here are high too.

hardly controversial or misleading.

Icecool, this is a binary pick. It either works or it doesn't. But AVCT had/have a number of strings to their bow which lifted it above many other similar small bio-techs trying to get their one clever tech approved and to market.

And due its nature it makes the valuation of the company via the SP, impossible to judge, its all or nothing.

Whats the company worth if LFT flops? 50p-100p? But what if AVA600k works and we should know in the next few months, 500p-1000p? But what if AVA fails as well?

I have no idea what ultimately the LFT bit will be but its late as in if testing has a shelf life of 3 years we have missed a third of it. And that assumes our test is as good as it seems and given all the competition now, sells in good enough numbers.

Based on missed timelines and misleading statements from AVCT I have personally written it off as an income stream and hope that sales will recoup the cost of development. Any more than that will be , for me a terrific bonus.

The AVA600k trial is the big one. That's what keeps me in, but its not a done deal, it never it is for any company, until its done.

Everybody will agree with the above, because there is nothing to disagree with. This is a highly speculative high risk stock that so far has failed to meet some or even most of its own objectives thus far. That is a red flag and people's investment sums in this stock hopefully reflect that.

Its a crap shoot

CO, the only bit that we don't know yet is if Vaccines improve, and also treatment improves. If both do, then testing will not be so necessary.

The bottom line is that is where the research will go because testing is a very expensive last resort. You keep having to test forever and where as a vaccine might last a year or so, in that time for the same money you might have a dozen or so tests.

Hurst, what makes you think they (broker report) know more than us when it comes to forecasting sales revenues?

They simply guessed, like the rest of us, and none of us guessed we would would be here, did we?

Its based on assumptions and thus far those assumptions have proved to be wide of the mark, and by some margin.

Templar, "It is extremely clear that Avacta are on the verge of announcing the completely transformational,game changing RNS that we were all expecting last summer."

Then why has the SP collapsed and a short taken out on it and still the SO is faling just days before this news will break? given Ophidian let the cat out of the bag 2 weeks ago saying HUA was already granted to Medusa and they were starting up production mid month to start selling at the end of this month?

It can't be a secret if we all know here, can it. And all those devious MM's keep pushing the price down against all the demand, (all the way from 280p)

GJ, you say this is a speculative stock .which it is. ( High risk actually, according to Myles, which it is)

Yet no discussion is permitted to discuss the (high) risks.

(I simply posted that yesterday would be an interesting day if the SP fell. Look at the general tone of the posts that followed but my post was immediately reported by BeInTheLead and the brief thread was removed about 30 minutes later due to the personal abuse that followed.)

This board always only accepts this is a "speculative stock" when its falling as though that's the time to remind people rather than when its going up.

I, like everyone else, do not know what the update will say but the salutary fact is, since approval for sale in May no govt in the world has deemed it necessary to use AVCT's test and grant it emergency home use. Not one. The best test in the world mind.
The fact the UK has not, when it has been in talks with AVCT for over a year should at least be a warning sign that UK use by the govt or govt bodies is unlikely, simply because if they were to use it why not sooner when they commandeered/supplied production from ODX and ABDX?

Who knows, maybe the rabbit will come out of the hat but based on previous RNS's and interviews where almost nothing has come to pass suggests that is unlikely (Personally I hope i am wrong because its always nice to see stocks rise, but my holding is based on AV600k and is at a level where can comfortably afford to lose the lot should the worst occur.)

But as I say, this BB does not permit any discussion of the risks involved which is why many have over committed and are are at varying degrees of anxiousness over their investment.

(Oh, and wait for Losta to say he has seen a load of green boxes...)

well I bought some today. The chart looks ok to me with a floor at 175p. ( I am "gambling" that there will be an upturn in the SP and it will come from here rather than testing 175p.)

Like all new tech, time forecasts always seem to go out the window, but it sounds like it is starting to come together now.

Fingers crossed....

Tony, I have not heard of a 5 hour chart before used for TA. Have you had much success with it? I ask because any intra day time interval used, tends to be applicable only for much shorter timeframes, ie a day or possibly a few days.

I also don't see there is any correlation between SP movements and an RNS.

All charts are, are a graphical representation of the buys and sells, of the 2 competing views. Timelines on future fundamental news being released via a chart is not possible? Yes price action might (behind the scenes), be influenced by expected imminent news, but its hardly forecastable to the day, is it?

one of my other stocks is looking green around the gills so released funds first thing and put moer into EVE just in time I think. Fingers crossed.

Yes well, I was hoping we could gloss over that ..... :0))

Perhaps I should have said "particularly Crap with..."