Member Info for wyndrum

Rads, Good, I should hope so.
However you do not know that Conifer still hold 2.99%. they could have carried on selling couldn't they?

Yes, Neut, I have read the brokers report. I would pay more attention to it if they offered to buy my shares at that price.

Why did Conifer sell then? Why has short been taken and not closed the day before the results then?

The thing is and we all know this, valuations right now are finger in the air jobs. If the any of the tie ups become commercial successes its not going to be 280p a share is it? Its going to be way north of there so what are they saying with their valuation?

If AVA is successful (and we will know in the next 12 months or so), what price then? What price if it fails.

No one knows, Neut, no one.

People here keep assuming its all a slam dunk certainty but surely the whole LFT saga has taught us here, nothing is certain.

Right now this is an unloved stock. It won't take too much good news to get it noticed again and hopefully it starts tomorrow.

Gj : Neut was simply asking on the back of the RNS why was the SP stagnant. I suggested that part of the SP represents expected income from the LFT that we have on sale.

Say 80p per share is everything bar LFT, it makes LFT worth 35p (115p) Say this LGC news adds 5p to the 80p, all it means is that the market has just marked down the LFT valuation by roughly the same today. so now the ratio is 85p/30p but still 115p

I wasn't diminishing anything on the business. What was the value of AVCT prior to the LFT news? 40p? yet it went to 200p (before the placing) so, at that time the LFT income was valued at 160p per share. There has been lots of water under the bridge since then, but its still very difficult to value AVCT in a sum-of-the-parts way.

How is any of that nonsense? You have non idea the value of the latest milestone payment do you, so how can you say its plugged the valuation? What is the current cash burn? How much is left in the bank?

We will find out tomorrow but in the meantime don't presume your baseless forecast is any sort of reliable guide to what will be reported tomorrow.

Like it or not, this is still (to some degree or other), a price related covid stock.

Or could it Apre... just be... a balanced post acknowledging the welcome LG Chem news with an explanation of the why the SP hasn't moved? Which was a reasonable response to the neut asking the question.

So no hijacking, no twisting of the thread at all, just your bizarre thought process at work yet again.

You are paranoid beyond parody

Except CJ, it did not stop you posting worthless remarks about it?
So filter people so you don't have to respond, and then respond anyway without knowing what you are responding to which starts off an utterly self defeating start off a thread....Brilliant....

Obviously it must give you quite the feeling of superiority to make this type of post in the first place..
What is it a "look at me how clever I am not getting sucked in to pointless posts" type of thing?

Surfie, when you're right, you're right.....

The only thing is if you (the individual) are going to invest in high risk shares then you have to expect the majority to fail, otherwise they would not fall into the "high risk" category.

So yes XSG and EVE (to name but just 2) are struggling SP wise currently, and there are obvious reasons why.

There are plenty and plenty of safer shares that over the long term will most likely do well with capital appreciation and divi's to boot.

There must be a reason why you are drawn to the high-risk type share?

Mossa, all shares are "trader shares". people buy and then people sell, the only thing difference is how long the individual holds the share.

This whole differentiation between "share holders" and "Traders" is vastly over done on these BB's in my estimation. It just seems a divisive device to create unnecessary tension.

Neut, I think the SP stasis is still all about the LFT income.

Todays RNS is obviously welcome and positive but the SP still reflects expected LFT income. Clearly expectation has been pared back form the ATH, but nevertheless, there is still an element of LFT income built into the SP.

The 64m dollar question is how much?

My best guess the market wants to see income of circa £20m per year over the next 12 months( about 1.5m tests per month at the apparent £1 profit per test) and that removes the pressure from a fund raise going forward for the foreseeable . Given that AS was previously citing capacity at a minimum of 5m test per month, I think that sounds reasonable.

Tomorrow is still, nowtwithstanding LG Chems vote of confidence today, key on LFT news.

DGU...(Though in reality we are all just human beings one no better nor worse than another! )

You don't frequent the AVCT BB, then?

Ophidian: " Statements like" Looking at the way the share price is moving, the market is obviously not expecting anything of significance." are ridiculous.

And yet you use charts to measure sentiment and to forecast price movements in front of official news don't you?

Why is it ridiculous therefore to take the current market indifference regarding the SP as an indicator?

Did you also not say that FOMO (some weeks ago) would be operating on the SP? Is that not sentiment based?

Mike:
imo
1: can't see what news would come out tomorrow but if it does, its co-incidence not planed.

2&3 are the same thing and will be seen as negative.

4: I can't see why Medusa would ever hold back news on HUA as the sooner they have it the sooner they sell the test and make some money. I can't see any reason on earth why that announcement would be delayed.
The rest TT etc, perfectly possible but again, I don't know why it would have been held back.

The SP has been through the ringer. AS has been badly bruised with false/missed deadlines. If actual targets, such as TT completion or extra capacity have already been achieved why would he not RNS them at the time? What benefit would there be to waiting for Thursday?

"Oh and by the way TT was completed last month along with HUA and we have had extra 30m test per month capacity approved and in place 6 weeks ago." likely? its possible but it does not make sense to me.

Don't start Lucy, its taken me this long to appease the "post format" police here

GJ,

For how long have i posted that I think testing income is over rated? How flip flop is that exactly?

And at the same time I buy and sell shares more frequently than some to make money and to try and take advantage of market sentiment...

I am clearly good at multi tasking... so what?

Why do you conflate the two things?

Gman, I don't Thrive on it doing badly, I have simply expressed a note of caution based on the complete absence on any news, leading many to think it "must" mean blockbuster news is coming out.

"and no matter what you say, you'll never have any influence over the SP."

OH FOR GODS SAKE!!!! ...
I have expressly, constantly, never endingly stated, I DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING POSTED HERE AFFECTS THE SP!!!!!!!!!!

How many times do I have to post that I am invested for the success of the current AVA trial!!!

My only concern is the LFT.
So I will spell it out again because clearly you either can't read or can't remember what I post.

Right or wrong this is my opinion.

I don't believe testing will be as wide spread or as long lasting as many here do due to vaccine roll out (globally) and up-coming anti viral treatments which are now imminent
Due to the now crowded market, I don't think AVCT will get the share of the LFT sales that i was expecting even 6 months ago and as a result it will end up being price driven. There fore I think less tests and less profit as margins are squeezed.

Got it?

If i am wrong and LFT income is substantial then I will be wrong! Whoopy Do! , it won't make any difference what i think or say to the SP. If income is good SP rockets , if income is poor SP goes down.
And you think i can influence that?

Ye Gods

Whats special about tomorrow G-Man?

Latorre, if you watch and listen to both interviews I think its clear that he highlights they are funded for the next phase of exploration which includes the BFD, but it sounds tight to me. If they don't get a discovery next time round then it will get
very sticky SP wise. But I think his confidence is genuine based on what they have found thus far, but I think that the day they discover helium there will follow a cash raise of some sort almost immediately. Just my opinion though.

I agree Aim, I think one RNS that says the latest seismic study has clearly identified a well (s) then even if drilling had to wait a couple of months to confirm, the SP in the meantime would go up to mid teens. He he saying he expects some sort of results before/around November.

i think as long as we close about 3.60p or higher all will be fine. Today would be nice

Dai, I m just speculating but do you think when tai-2 was going nowhere he simply stopped asap to save money?

I am not sure if I am reading too much into this, but I think he is so convinced tai-1 is the real deal that he will only shallow drill elsewhere but he clearly from the interview want's to have another go with a biger drill.

Again my read from 2 interviews is that he is reasonably positive about commercial shallow drilling elsewhere and highlighted how easy and profitable it could be once they find it, but I think, he thinks, the mother load is around tai-1?

(I hope he's not going all Captain Ahab on us.....)

Well, DM is doing his bit. Admitted it was the wrong drill for the conditions and a new correct one is on its way for next year.

In both interviews (I am trying to allow for confirmational bias here), he wants to shout that they have discovered Helium but he can't on a technicality. That's what came across to me. His over-confidence while on site that in hindsight has now aggravated a lot of investor's was I think, simply a recognition that he knew it was there and it was unfortunate in the extreme that his gamble on using a cheaper rig did not pay off.

And clearly these interviews don't happen by chance. He is very keen to keep HE1 in the spotlight. He slightly dodged the question of re-financing only saying that they have enough money to make a discovery. Which may or may not be true. I think it sounds as though HE1 are just about sufficiently funded but I am guessing there will be a fund raise immediately after a discovery is called. So it might be tight but i think he realises a dilution prior to discovery would be a very hard sell.

All in all when comparing the SP today to where it was back in March, then it looks very good value and somewhere between 10-11p looks more reasonable to me, for the amount of de-risking that has subsequently occurred.

just my opinion DYOR.