Member Info for wyndrum

Its just gambling whichever you look at it Blubay, imo. Just deciding when to leave the table doesn't magically change what went previously.

well, thats the retrace that had to come and hopefully we are back to moving up tomorrow. (4.15p was a target which was hit today hence my expectation that that will be it. )if it really feels the urge to fall further the 4.0p would be next.

I had an amount of money put by to buy on the dips and this was one at 4.15p however, although i think a pattern has formed confirming that the retrace is over it could easily confound me so i only committed half and then if it does fall further will commit the rest at 4p assuming again that there is a pattern confirming the fall is complete. (Its not enough just to go to a support, other things have to have to happen at the same time, for me at least.

The RSI is now at 65.41 so still vaguely toppy but certainly plenty of room to go up (and of course down... never wear the "only way is up" goggles).

DGU, Mrs W works in House Keeping at a hotel and i remember ta while ago talking to her about hotels as the obvious avenue for sales and she said that foam mattresses were hard to clean when stained or when spillages happen.

I don't know if that's been overcome but it always stuck with me (And I could give you a million horror stories of what happens in, on and to mattresses, on a regular basis.

Presumably that accounted for the spike and general good day yesterday?

(A retracement was always on the cards by the way)

G0-man, if you are referring to me then why do you assume I "hate" avct?

I can't tell you how strong the emotions seem to run on here on this stock. Its crazy and its not helpful when trying to make rational decisions or points.

It doesn't make any difference to you or the SP whatever anyone else thinks or does.

If the LFT is selling millions per month then the SP will move up very sharply when the market hears about it. Whether you believe it is, or I believe it isn't, won't affect the outcome, will it?

If you believe that posts that are not fulsome in assuming every positive spin on AVCT hurts the SP, it can't hurt it very much can it ? a penny or two?

We have just had a glowing report from Myles who has a tremendous following on social media and he has not moved the dial more than a penny, so really what difference do you think my view makes?

As far as I am aware we are not using ABDX yet to produce any test.

I have no handle on sales or profit margin per test yet. Therefore as this is absolutely key financial info, I will assume that its not ready to be divulged. I further conclude, given if it was a "positive story" then that info would be now in the public forum and as its not I assume sales/profit are still on the low side of expectations ie up to a million per month.

Ok, you seem a bit weird Ice, so if its alright with you I'll give you a miss from now on.

You seem a bit emotionally caught up with me and are more concerned on my financial acumen and gardening prowess than being able to look objectively at whether or not AVCT is selling more or less tests through bio-serve.

Thanks for your thoughts and well wishes Ice, Don't know quite what I have done to you but hey ho, long as you are happy.

"Obviously the relationship is going very well and they are selling loads of tests!! Actually checking the website they are promoting the test a lot"

What makes you assume they are selling loads of tests ? It could it also be that they are not selling very many and need to kick start sales?

For instance if they were selling loads they could have put on the website. Something like "due to high demand for this we have secured extra supply so order now .." That would potentially reassure new customers that this was a "good" or popular test.

To simply reiterate what has gone before ie they supply the test does not give me the same warm feeling as it clearly gives you.

I don't know which one it is but given that as far as we can tell capacity has not been increased otherwise we would have been told, I am not assuming it is as good as you think . (Is ABDX finished TT and is now making our tests? looking at their SP I would say not.)

Roundhowe, It was a genuine question as Poirot is pretty good at lateral links, but I can't see how this is different to when Bioserve was RNS'd as a supplier months ago and given people are reacting to his post saying good spot etc etc, it sounds like this is new and significant so I just wondered what it is i am missing.

if nothing has changed and they have just altered the wording or the position on their website, is it just the suggestion they are trying to generate more sales?

Poirot,

What am i missing?

What does this tell us that we did no know months ago? (Just enquiring as this is old news isn't it?)

Thanks in advance

ND, I think maybe we have different views on how to value a company?

in my view the SP has nothing to do really, with AVCT the company. The SP is determined by the price people are prepared to buy or sell the shares for at any given time.

In this specific example of AVCT, the SP is a mix primarily of, AVA6000K being successful, a potential of a buy out, of HUA being granted and LFT sales income and the resources the company has to bring some or all of these threads to a successful conclusion.

We all buy shares on the expectation that there will be good news coming BEYOND (emphasis), the market's expectation.

My view is that LFT income element has diminished substantially as part of the current SP valuation and is largely made up of the expectation that AVA6000k will work. But as you say, will it work?

Well, thats the point as you say precisely. We won't know for sure until we are told. So do you buy now taking the view the risk is worth it, or wait until the SP is multiples of where it is now if indeed the trial is successful?

We probably don't disagree too much on the above, my only point really was I don't see it at 50p. thats all

Oh and just before i go phantom, when I forecasted the 6-9 month wait for FDA news, it was you that gave me a serve for posting such a long timeframe based on not having any "facts" at my disposal.

Fortunately my analysis has proved pretty accurate based on the info provided in that march RNS, don't you think?

Again, kind of you to say gmcc

"I am humbled to be in the presence of a trader with 40 years experience " thats kind of you to say GMCC, you will be gad to know I sold SYN yesterday at 40% profit for a weeks holding. I am up over 30% in ADV for just a few weeks worth of time and I have bought ANG AVCT and got back into SYN this morning.

I'll let you know how I get on shall I, seeing as you have taken an interest? (Although i don't why as what I do has no affect on you or the stocks I buy).

ND, i think its hellishly difficult to put a value on where AVCT SP should be. There has been much water under the bridge and the all time low back then was reflecting the need for more funds to be raised, and at the time AVA600k was along way off.

Since then there have been several tie-ups with some undisclosed income and further support and initial proof of concept for AVCT's tech, AVA600k now actually in trial, looks to be working due mostly to the lack of anything contrary and we both know if successful what would most likely happen to the SP. It is supported by a slowly increasing number of hospitals and patients joining in.

We also know that many loss making Bio-Pharmas get bought out for very high sums, so my reasoning is that the main fall from the highs is due to lack of LFT visibility to around 100p (the recent low) probably has shown (through an overshoot), the markets acceptance to put LFT income on the back burner and to see how AVA pans out.

Given the SP never reflects the company's value at the time (its always forward looking), I struggle with 50p simply because if AVA works then the sky's the limit and we will know shortly (DYOR etc).

G-man, if you bothered to read the posts instead of posting your inane comment (commenting on something you have not read!), you would see its not pessimism.

Really, at least try to take some emotion out of stock picking, pessimism, optimism, negativity, positivity.... these words are absolutely irrelevant to deciding why you should hold buy or sell a stock.

And I am sure all be delighted to know I bought a load more this morning at 118p so....well, done me.

Do you want to discuss AVCT or not?

how about you tell me your expectations for AVCT and I'll tell you mine: I'll start:

For the last 9 months or more I have had reservations about the LFT test, its delivery to market and its potential income stream. I have always believed in the potential of the other sides of AVCT and now as time has passed we are weeks or maybe a few months away from potentially share transforming news regarding AVA600K

I have been generally consistent in that view. To be fair, There have been one or two (short-lived) times in that period when I thought maybe, the LFT was going to "happen" based on the posts here and research. However it has not yet come to pass.

What's your view on AVCT?

ok, we are back to this again.. GLA

Malachi as a final observation: If you looked at AGL now for the first time, did your DD and thought the chances of getting FDA were good, would you wait for the announcement or would you buy in front of the announcement to benefit from the rise that will ensue?

If your answer is you would buy now because you think the risk is worth the potential reward, then thats how charting "works"

And goodnight.

Malachi, yes that will be the support to the move , but the SP was 135p a month ago before dropping nearly 20%, so in hindsight it looks as though there was buying ahead of an expectation that news was about to drop (or at least a gamble that it was). In other words I think the chart will pre date the official release (it might not of course, who knows), but whether its a leak or FOMO, or whatever, but the old adage of "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" has quite a body of historical support to justify it.

So I expect on balance the SP to move prior to the news, if it does, based on the chart pattern expecting a break out, means it could generate even more momentum.

Anyway, time will tell, as it always does.

I agree ND with your conclusion, it does follow a pattern with AS when he is tight lipped/vague, it has previously meant things are not imminent. This one might be different but I don't see why.

On a more hopeful note I think the SP is coming to terms with that likely reality and its relative tight movement now (rather than dramatic falls), I think is reflecting the absence of any immediate transformational income in the forseeable future and the AVA600K trial is now where the focus and SP support is.

In other words I think we are getting to the stage where any LFT income is being discounted by the market.

If that's is the general market view then i think we will start to see a slowly strengthening SP over the next few weeks as the update to the trial gets closer. Just my opinion.

This is as calm a sea SP wise as we have had for a very long time. and fwiw, the chart is poised to break out one way or the other in a very tight range now. a close above 125p will do it or below 121p (At 124p currently there would be a bias to an upward breakout expectation as its closer but as its obvious to see, its tight.)