Member Info for wyndrum

Hi Rum! if i'm the only one who takes stick then I think its pretty clear the problem is with me and the way i post rather than anything else! Ha ha.

Good luck on your intuition, which is shorthand for a lot of experience I imagine.

For me I will wait for close of play figures to try and discern if the market is trying to tell me something of if its just noise.

A lot of TA is just sitting on your hands and waiting.

Anyway, good luck.

Tim, do we? ( think it will to, so its just a bit of devils advocate, but if it was that easy there would be no need for approval, so it could fail by definition as failure is an option, in that it will be approved or it wont.

But as i say, i agree it will, but then the next question more importantly is, when?

Do you think it makes a difference to AVCT if it is approved tomorrow or in say, March? (I am not suggesting it will be March simply trying to understand why after all this time, such positive assumptions are constantly made.)

(BTW, You can still buy into a stock for its potential but have longer timeframes for results).

I think the flaw in your argument PL, is that you seem to advocate reacting to the news once its in and THEN base the decision to buy/sell from there. Although this seems to make sense its not actually true in reality:

The SP does not reflect the current value of the company at that specific time. Its always looking ahead.

When you originally bought AVCT it was for its potential, so you decided that the SP, if some or any of the potential was realised in the undefined future, it made the then SP look good value at the price you paid. You did not buy expecting the SP to have topped out .

Currently there is an expectation that if LFT comes good and the trials come good the SP will rocket. If neither happens the SP would be just a few pence, but its 123p, so there are many expecting some good news to arrive, but if they wait until the news is released the SP might be 300p and even then people will still buy on the ASSUMPTION there is even more good news to follow which will project the SP higher still.

None of this is rocket science but I think it does contradict your criticism of recent "news predictions". Whether these predictions turn out to be true or false is largely irrelevant, all share buys and sells are people making judgements on what they think FUTURE news will be. The only difference is most don't bother explaining the reasons for their action on investment BB's

Not a fan of TA then, ST?

CO, its just my experience of DT formations, They tend to work more often then they fail but for me, not enough to base a decision on in terms of risk reward..

The whole game buying and selling is psychological and if proof were needed it is the old adage of "buy on the rumour, sell on the news", which is so often the case.

There will always be examples of an RNS that is so good, so out of the blue, that it takes the market completely by surprise, but generally the criticism that TA can't "deal" with RNS's is actually not true.

And this could be an example: Say, we get good (RNS) news tomorrow and the SP jumps to 140p (or even more) (10 % plus), TA would have flagged that yesterday with the DT and previous breakout.

We will have to wait and see, but obviously the news of the company and the expectation is all reflected in the current SP and most buyers want to get in before the rise rather than after it, hence the buying can sometimes and often does in my experience, "predict" whats likely to come next.

Rum,

Its a bit too early to say I think, because the rise is not potentially done yet. but right now the resistance of 3.62p becomes the support but it does not mean it will go necessarily go back there to test it.

However there was slow down in the rise of the last few sessions at 3.80-3.85p, so that might be the place it comes down to..

But as I say i only post this as you asked. At this stage, as of the close last night imo, there is still enough room for further modest increases (say 4.3-4.5p before a likely fall back.

And the caveat to that is, from a TA pov, we take one trading session at a time depending on what the trader uses, whether its 1minute , 5minute, or close of play time intervals, We wait for the market to tell us what is most likely rather than predict what we think the market will do. (its a subtle but vital difference.)

Jez was quite right i think in his recent post when he said consistency in the use of the individuals system (Time intervals, indictors etc), is also vital when using charts to make decisions.

Don't know if this helps much?

I don't know why some of you get so excised about AVCT LFT's? At the time last year most posters were crowing that it was all about the cancer therapy and this was just a huge golden bonus that was in for free. All i am saying is that it has proved much harder so far for AVCT to profit from Covid and that the cancer therapy is now centre stage as trails have begun.

Just calm yourselves and look at the facts rather than the positive (false) assumptions you continually make month after month that don't materialise.

Ha ha! yes, Jez, I am the same as you, I keep it very simple on indicators and maybe even more so just relying on the RSI to give the likely areas where the SP will fall or rise in conjunction with very obvious support and resistance lines. But it seems to work much more often than not, why look to complicate things.....
atb

Watching ,
I think it was right back last year somewhere maybe in june or before, and as with unfortunately so many covid related AVCT "products seems to have withered on the vine.

This has gone from a company with so many shots at goal to just a few left.

Maybe it is just a time thing and all of these techs will still come good and it has been an unreasonable timescale to expect anything sooner, but when you consider the 5m saliva test, Bams, Waste water detection, EUA ,HUA, Govt emergency contracts and indeed the neutralising avenue, etc etc. then it does unfortunately paint a less than glowing picture right now on the covid response front from AVCT.

Still, we live in hope.

But.... we must expect a retrace soonish as we are likely getting into overbought territory if we finish up today.

So, its going to be volatile I think in and around here for a few sessions.

The way i see it playing out is the "greedy" will be buying now after the last few days of rises so they don't miss out further , and the traders will be selling off into the rise because they expect a retrace, and this will unnerve some of the "greedy "who will sell and that retrace will being back in the traders and wiser owls waiting to get in on a dip.

(Its quite the world I invent to justify my confirmation bias!) :0))

ITV, hopefully your patience and trust will be rewarded. I'll be looking in from time to time and all being well start building (again) sometime in Q1/Q2. Keep well. atb

Double top formation was triggered yesterday close indicating a move to at least 138p which coincides neatly with the the next 140p resistance level.

Iimo its not super reliable but is one of the more recognised and obvious patterns and as a result its often a trigger fore new and more experienced traders alike to act upon.

So while I am pleased it is in play I would personally on its own would put a 60% ish likely hood of it "working" but, with the other indicators it re-enforces the break out (imo)

So to my mind its another confirming piece in a more likely upward move,

yep, any increases is a good one. Still enough room in the RSI for a bit more before a retrace. (4p might get a bit sticky just because its a round number and as we know people can get funny about stuff like that.)

Onwards and upwards.... :0))

Jez, wasn't the resistance broken when it went through 3.62p?

ATB

That's alright woody, i have no beef with any views, My modus operandi is from a chart perspective so I tend to look at short term price points as indicators of the next likely move.

And its never done until its done, whatever anyone says.

You are probably right Woody but it looks as though the sellers are drying up, so if supply/demand swings further as it looks to be doing then future sellers are going to demand more from the buyers out there, pushing the price up and its not much of a stretch now to 176p.

We will know at the close.

"There’s a clear risk that the market will not exist once the pandemic is dealt with but there are plenty of indicators that point to the idea that the market will exist for the foreseeable 5 years+."

So a "clear risk that the market will not exist once the pandemic is dealt ".

"it’s wildly competitive, the consumer market will likely be entirely price-driven and, if they’re not included in approved government lists, they won’t have access to a key distribution channel that others will."

Hmmm, so HUA will result in lower profit per test.... Still at least we have the govt to fall back on....

I largely agree with her views as it paints both sides of the opportunity, but I would also point out that while you have gone all gooey over her thoughts some here were just as happy to vilify me for highlighting the exact same risks months ago.

GJE no off loading for me. All my stocks are currently blue incl my biggest holding AGL, so all good today thus far.

Who knows mowzer, but as you know i think the way covid will be handled in the longer term is through improving Vaccines (if poss) and good anti-virals. SNG look a good bet for the global anti-viral path to me)

But with all stocks its a crap shoot.

Er... really....? SNG is taking off, this would be a odd point to sell that stock imo. The next 3-4 months look very promising as does AVCT here.