Member Info for wyndrum

The "red flag" for me Van, is the paltry 20% sales growth in the first 4 months of the year. It indicates the design wins are small beer, as no explosive sales, or even a remark of we expect due to design wins, further substantial sales growth etc etc.

What happened to SA and the battery sale? has that just died?

Given the rhetoric in the LI posts, it seems at odds with the remarks at the update. I have not given up hope by any means but the tech advantage seems very slow to gather pace given its potential to change the world we live in. Something doesn't quite add up.

Ultimately it will be defined by value.

If its deemed a way of getting technology on the cheap then maybe they will bid (now-ish) and spin the company off again later or whatever works best.

It may be better value to develop the company as it is, as everything is in place, ie staff structure and all the rest of it which by taking the company private would cause a lot of cost and duplication and upset, so a couple of steps back to go forward longer time may not be seen as best value.

This is the double edged sword of having a few big shareholders, the small investor has no control over the destiny of the company.

For me its just another reason to look at holdings in these small companies as short term as the chance of great returns from long term patience rarely nowadays pays off.

Anyway, here we are approaching December and we have no idea who the design wins were for, all those months ago, which i find extremely frustrating given its coincided with a very sharp deterioration in the SP since then.

It feels that there has been deliberate misleading announcements from the BoD to create a false impression of new sales and customers, which is wholly typical and I can only blame myself for falling for it, esp. as I am pretty cynical when it comes to this aspect of investing. Oh well.

Patience is a virtue, possibly the greatest one, and unsurprisingly the one I struggle with the most to attain.

I agree with all that Chris, everything rests on certain assumptions coming to pass. My point was the SP has been much higher (185p) based on future results being "confirmed" by the rhetoric.

All I am saying is we have been here before, being promised of fantastic things that will soon come to pass, and yet.... (Where is the deals "in the not too distant future", for instance? that was CC remember, She is not averse to spinning the wheel either.)

Anyway, I would just like some harder data from P1b on the efficacy but I am now expecting to be ultimately disappointed. My best guess now is that it will be heavily caveated by some patients reacting better than others etc etc etc, SGC is only being highlighted because there was no previous treatment for any comparison. That, as I recall was not the golden ticket we were promised,

Chris, my SP "predictions" are based on the charts. I imagine the rise is being generated (as its the only thing being discussed by AVCT), by the progress and potential of the next generation of AVCT tech, not this trial. This trial is slipping it seems to me, quietly by.

You too agree that you have been disappointed/surprised by the lack of info on P1b.

As I have said for a little while now, AVA6k, it seems to me, has turned out to be very much a trial and error approach that has proved to be a stepping stone to where we are now. And thats fine, but thats not the story we were sold at the time or all through P1a and into the start of P1b.

So while I am enthused at what comes next I surely, surely, can't be the only one here that is just a tad suspicious of the CC rhetoric based on whats gone before?

One day the penny might drop its not the PR company's fault for a lack of updated info.

Pedro, his style is humorous but the points he raises on timings and info have typically been what many here have thought.

as he says 14 working days to December. two thirds of Q4 with the final third being shortened. Not a bad point to raise, i thought.

AVCT are really pushing the NEXT trial VERY hard, it feels to me as though this present trial has already served its purpose and that the actual benefit in of itself to patients will be much more limited than we were led to believe.

I don't know about you, perhaps you could tell me, but I thought P1b was meant to be about very carefully selected patients to showcase the efficacy after the protracted safety/dosage part.

Yet here we 9-10 months after the first dosing which can be every 3 weeks and what info have we had? I would have thought there would be ample results for an initial "this is fantastic" type of release?

What you were expecting by when? (And I am referring to the communication at the end of P1a and the run up to P1b starting.)

Again, am not holding my breath you will reply. Its seems not to be your style.

CJ, LDA's posting style is for deliberate humour. Once you get that, they are very funny, (well i think so)

But (he?) has a point. I too have been wondering where the P1b updates are because the clock is ticking for this info and things slow down real quick going into december.

I don't think it needs a rabbit, (although that would be very nice), but at least some rubbish plastic flowers need to be produced....

The very fact MM has form and is known about here, does not stop many here thinking that "he knows" something or he has realised the time is now, etc etc. Why, given his history? Because its what you want to hear, and why is that? because of your greed (and fear).

Alderbaron, given MM previous form i would not "trust" anything he says.

I was advised a long time ago, to think and reason for myself, and by all means take on the wisdom of others but at the same time realise, no one, absolutely no one is infallible and no one can predict the future.

In regards to investing, you need (imo), whatever strategy you follow, to have a specific plan, ideally suited to the individuals strengths that is not the "norm", otherwise you will be at the mercy of the unemotional adversary.

This is not a fair playing field, there are reasons why PI's are deliberately kept in the dark, misinformed, etc etc. It is our ego's that the "market" laughingly exploits at every available turn.

I always remember, all a salesman does is tell you what you want to hear. Its a happy coincidense if it matches what you originally wanted.

Thanks for the update, No8.

I still am of the opinion it was due to MM's not being able to potentially keep an orderly market in case it went beserk and therefore restriced activity.

But as you say, who knows.

ATB & Good luck

I am simply not accepting that the market was rigged only to allow short positions to be closed, which is what you said.

More likely given that MM's have to make an orderly market they were not sure of what stock would be needed and that is what caused the restrictions.

Can these platforms now buy/sell normally?

So, it was impossible to buy except for the shorters?

The platforms/brokers that would allow everyone to buy were clearly not overwhelmed to get stock.

And those platforms that would allow shorters to buy but nobody else? how would they know if it was a shorter buying?

If it was a main house shorting they have access to their own brokers/platforms to buy stock.

And do we know if the shorts have been closed?

Just seems a lot of assumptions based on very little to me

"I think and hope we are about to see a surge of buying activity now that they have allowed all the shorters to exit. "

where on earth do you get the belief that shorters are "allowed" out? They take a bet that either works or it doesn't. there is no evidence of the MM's rigging the market so that they lose money by keeping the price artificially low.

The lack of SP apreceation suggests to me there is no institutional buying and that the small movement is based on PI's hoping the 30p bid materialises.

No LDA, Without overly blowing my own trumpet I had seen this rise coming some time ago.

I understand charting pretty well and most of the popular indicators and tested them over the years to destruction. for me there is just one "reliable indicator and that is the RSI for this stock.

It has broken into recent ATH territory and the support at this level suggests further moves up.

(The problem using multiple indicators is that they can contradict themselves. To get them all to say the same thing will likely only happen AFTER the event.)

The trend (which is your friend) is up, there is no appetite as I post, of selling in any great force, ath broken, RSI with room for further upward moves.

mid 90's to maybe 104p looks next unless new news comes in.

I bought on the intraday dip earlier this week and that (objectively) has strengthend my view that today was ok to increase my holding.

I added this morning (for whats that worth)

Van, I think the presentation next week will be key for next 6 months (ie up to the end of this financial year)

Friday RNS's are almost always never herald "good" news and this one keeps the stats up.

he needs to be bullish (with good reasons), and to flesh out the potential due to patents, design wins and anything else in the near term pipe work.

I don't see a collapse or anything that dramatic but I want my 22p to remain realistic and not the stupid forecast it was/is when I made it :0))

Well, we are not going backwards, so thats something. mkt cap is only £18m so given we look close to profitability that seems ok too.

personally I was hoping for a bit more growth, also I wanted more info on the design wins. Has that led to extra sales?

Either the NDA is needed because the tech is so good still, or apart from the kudos of the win, sales are slow of the actual product.

Overall, a bit no nothing, but tempered with its kind of ok.

"Why pay 30 pence when you can pick up shares at this level? haha"

Hmm, that does seem to be quite the question.

I don't know whats going to happen but if this deal was going ahead then it would open at 30p, if it wasn't then you would expect more than 30p if fair value in the intervening months is now seen to be greater.

Or, the deal isn't going ahead and there is a raise coming?

I guess the latter makes the most sense at this stage?

(I might be over-egging it a bit when I said "more sense"......)

It will be very confusing if the Sid offer is turned down on the back of a RI offer...

" Quote from Tempus" we are thrilled to partner with Avacta in support of their efforts to bring game-changing new therapies to patients in need" ."

What exactly did you think they would say?

still never sure if you are just always taking the micky or just have no ability to think for yourself with any insight at all.