Member Info for wyndrum

Chris, do me a favour and ask jam if he has ever seen a placing actually increase the SP?

(we all have of course, plus the market knew it was coming and it already had p1a data released, but yeah every company is typical, never an exception even though this is exceptional data.)

Thank goodness we have jam on hand with his clairvoyant musings in responding to what he has not even read.

Fair enough chris, you could well be right. I hope you are.

The point is Chris, is that the market tries to get in ahead of news, not after it.

Clearly there is not the confidence yet that this is coming anytime soon. I don't think 6 months is enough time. has P1b even finished recruiting? I am not sure it has.

If Pia was so exceptional people would be clamouring to get on the trial. and yes, BP would be queing up to fast track this through license deals.

Its not doom and gloom but again the time element is critiocal, absolutely critical, and it seems to be moving very slowly.

there are about 8 weeks or so before it all goes quiet for the start of the new year.

Are you surprised we have not heard about P1b other than CC, being positively vague about it? Personally after 8 months I thought we would have had more results from the dosing regime, given the low toxicity and much improved dox going into the tumour would have been able to show much more how great the improvement has been.

I was hoping that these events would be the stimulant for the SP appreciation but its actually down today.

This has taken years and years to get to 64p

"There is no doubt this data is phenomenal .."

not according to the market...posters galore, interviews galore, better coms, exhibitions galore.....and yet...? Still, it has clearly exceeded most peoples expectations here, just a shame its not a bit more broader based...

NCF: "The rise from .15p has purely been speculation." Well, yes because every buy, in any company, by any buyer, is speculation.

You are not buying for what happened last week/month/year. Every buy is speculating what the future will bring.

(Past performance will no doubt influence the attempt to predict the future, but as every buy is exactly that, an opinion on what may or may not come to pass, so you have different views, with some thinking it will be a good outcome and others such as you perhaps, thinking the opposaite.

And that of course is what makes the market.

Chris its a huge fallacy to blame every fall in the SP on "traders". (ts lazy thinking).

You will have noted that on balance given the different outcomes that can be reasonably argued over this latest (but almost certainly not the last), I think there is more chance than not of the SP to continue to appreciate.

However it should not be ignored that several posters have in the past argued against me when discussing a RI, that the SP can (and indeed sometimes does), appreciate because the news that accompanies the dilution more than overcomes that feature.

Yet when AVCT falls by 5% then it is just Traders plaything and completely masks the fantastic news that every deal is on the table, that every takeover will now have to pay more and that AVCT are immeasurably strengthened by this.,,, really?

Also I would point out when you look at HEMO and IMM as recent examples, that when you do in fact get "exceptional" news, the SP rockets.

Therefore this RI satisfies the new deal terms and buys AVCT time. My view is that the market is ok with this and is patently waiting for the real exceptional news you think has already been delivered.

I used to be surprised at the reaction to limited news like this whereby its either black or white and never seems to be open to any interpretation, but sadly its simply par for the course here.

What, you didn't think that would be a natural effect from a tech that stopped the toxicity going into the blood stream?

What did you expect? to make no or little difference.

Anyway, it is what it is but clearly AVCT are much, much more excited about the next trial than this one.

"Beyond expectations? Without question. "

really, so the shares were 185p when the 4th round of dosing was near completion and two years on with all that extra data they are a third of that price.

What exactly were your expectations that have been exceptionally exceeded?

Given the length of time it takes there can be an advantage to not making the tech publicly available.

So I have to assume given the cost and the years it will take the tech must be hard to replicate from the patent itself.

Clearly it looks like just by buying a product with the patent tech in (new head phones for instance) it would be near impossible to copy.

otherwise the patent is not worth the cost of taking out.

You sure do see it only one way bella.

this new loan just replaces the old one. shares are issued to make the repayments. Nothing has changed. All that has happened is that 22m of new shares has bought cash flow.

Aas for "now a T/O deal would be very different and perhaps they were trying to put that chatter to bed." What? what difference has this made?

AVCT still don't have sufficient funds to finish the trial. Nothing has changed.

They needed a minimum of £13m to satisfy the changeover of lenders by January. They did with 3 months to spare and raised the minimum.

It may be in hindsight supreme confidence or... it might not. We simply don't know.

Anyone here still think P1a was exceptional and beyond expectations?

I guess my point was Chris, that you can read todays news how you want.

CC did say a deal in the not to distant future months ago, so that has not happened , or my idea of what she meant time-wise is not what she had in mind.

Only £16m means deals coming or that was the most they could raise as no deal is coming?

And this is not free cash, its likely this is just a form of the previous loan with the advantage hopefully of a more considered share sale than the previous dumps. Or they could be in it for the long haul.

as for tuning down cash? Do you mean it was over subscribed? Well, here's the cynic in me. you get one of the "investors" to ask for more stock having already told him hit won't be approved so don't worry, that way you get to say its been "over subscribed" which sounds really good.

P1a has been a disappointment. Its finished and all the results are in and made public and the SP is 65p. This therefore suggests to me P1b will also be disappointing. (Not bad or not working, just not as originally expected but gave insight for the next trial that, unsurprisingly, all at AVCT have high hopes for.)

Certainly if this raise was so great and clearly foretold the positive outcomes which some here seem to think, the SP would not have fallen 5% so far today.

In other words as I see it, the market knew a raise had to come, it has, the data has been as expected with no surprises, good or bad, and AVCT get another time extension to make their case.

Its as you were with no tangible new progress that we were or anyone else was, not already aware of.

The 2 design wins are good news and beyond our expectations at the time of their announcement. That has not changed.

The scale of this good news is dependent on the product and the company who awarded it to CPX, but that is what we are talking about... just the scales of the good news.

The only thing that could really hurt if the design win(s) did not lead to sales but that seems unlikely given the process gone through with others for CPX to be chosen in the first place.

The talk and company actions over the last few months has been exceptionally positive which suggets there is nothing bad about to land,

So right now imo, this is just normal, as the day approaches for a definitive answer, that fear is competing with greed.

I always ask myself 2 questions:

1: Why did I buy the stock in the first place?

2: Has anything changed to question those initial reasons to buy?

If the answer to 2 is no, then I sit on my hands.

(We have seen in the past that when demand kicks in the SP moves very quickly.)

The other key factor of course is to never hold more than you can comfortably afford to lose, and you know if you have got that right when you are either relaxed or worried in this type of situation.

(imo, dyor etc)

Churning this over and all i get at the moment is... on the one hand... but then on the other....

on the one hand, Small raise which is barely enough to cover the new loan agreement, so could not realistically been any smaller, which is not good. on the other hand it was over subscribed, (and the SP has held up reasonably well).

On the one hand that it is good, on the other, it does seem on the face of it a gift for the lenders to make quick profits at the cost of current shareholders dilution.

on the one hand Is the Ri simply to keep the lights for the next few months as thats all they could get away with or is that all the time that will be needed for some real share-moving/blockbusting news/results?

We may get a better insight after tomorrows investor chat with CC.

Certainly she has been, as has most of the BoD, very bullish in her expectations, on the other hand we have been here before with near future forecasts of breakthroughs and none have come to pass.

As always there is never any need for any of this because it can be dealt with with much clearer and exact language form AVCt themselves, therefore the interpretation on these RNS's and results almost always, typically lead to a longer time to anything definitive.

Overall, on balance, my best guess as i am sure CC will remain very confident tomorrow, is that the RI will be buy enough time for confirmation of P1b being very good and then a license deal will be announced which will then proceed to secure funding without further share-holder dilution

imo, dyor etc

Jack, what on earth makes you think I would want them bought out cheaply or either fail? (one, its contradictory and secondly as I hold stock then I want neither.)

When there was all the rage on in the not-so-distant deals and talks of licenses and all the rest of it here and by CC, the last on the list was a RI.

I commented then that just because it was last on the list did not meant it was the most unlikely and explained why, and I have posted a couple since then over the last weeks that i thought a RI was the most likely way of dealing with the funding shortfall.

Needless to say there wee a few that then ranted at me, and needless to say, it turns out i was riught.

Why you think, just because I can see whats likely more clearly than some here makes me a low life in investing is only something you can explain. Investment houses for instance, put quite the premium oh decent analysis.

Obviously i care less about your opinion but as its got 18 likes last time I looked, I thought it worth noting thatpeoples emotional bias potentially can stop them thinking.

So, it turned out to be dilution after all.... who knew.....

Sheppy, rather than spout insults and falsehoods, where is my thinking unreasonable?

I dare you for once just to give a thoughtful opinion about AVCT rather than your infantile abuse towards me.

Why do YOU THINK the SP fell for the duration of P1a AFTER the unexpected dose extension was announced?

If P1a has been exceptional why hasn't a license or some sort of deal already been done?

Do YOU THINK it was a coincidence that the shares rallied after the new funding, or DO YOU THINK it was new trial data?

I guarantee you will not attempt a coherent answer to these questions.

You seem very immature so i can only guess your IQ matches your age.

"We already know its exceptional " we really don't. And we know this because we have not had any licensing deals or bids for the company.

It looks to me AVA6k has not delivered in the way expected, that accounts for the unexpected extra dosing regimes and lack of deals and a falling SP while the trial continued, while at the same time throwing ever more data. All of that points to not working quite right as opposed to "exceptional" in my book.

The company has only rallied sp-wise on a new refinancing plan. Nothing to do with the trial.

As ever its always in the future.....

Saint, all a chart is, (every single chart, on every single stock and index), is the graphical representation of the buys and sells. Thats why its all sentiment. Its just a convenient way of showing where the current sentiment is between the 2 competing options. Its not smoke and mirrors and its not hocus pocus, its just exploring if the predictable science of crowd psychology can be transferred to stocks, and given its driven by 2 of the most powerful emotions, fear and greed, it turns out it is.

The reason you can't get it to work is because you are too emotional and cannot divorce your emotional responses from your rational ones, as can be seen by your stubborn headed approach to it.

Its also why so many fail at it. Its easy to read a chart, its much harder to have the unemotional mindset necessary to execute the principles.

"Anyone using charts on anything but FTSE100 or 250 needs to give their head a wobble. Absolutely pointless on AIM as it's mostly sentiment driven. We've had plenty here over the years and all are clueless chancers who flip flop to suit their narrative."

Its all sentiment driven, every single stock.....its not the index, its the amount of shares that are in issue.

The smaller the market cap so there is more chance of bigger moves that can then influence emotionally, the reaction of PI's. Also less II's get involved in trading these stocks which then exacerbates the predictable emotional response of the PI

Apart from the recent hiatus in the SP, over the recent past there has been a threefold increase in the stock. So I think the market has already priced in the expected improvement in sales from all the avenues.

As a result when the accounts appear probably later this month (my guess is Tuesday the 28th), then there will need to be a real surprise to the upside in sales to move the SP.

I think this is possible and this discounts any further news from the design wins being relayed, which again I expect to hear. I would also expect very bullish comments on the next 12 months going forward.

The chart it self is now in a trading range so is not offering much help (although it looks to me ready to break upwards, but I am reasonably sure I am biased. he only reason i mention the chart is because I think with the fundamentals it would support a likely break to the upside.)

The downside is obviously one of disappointing results but with the design wins, the LI posts, the distributors coming on Board, the stakes by shoot-em-up and other private individuals being taken, suggest that the odds are in favour of good news rather than not.

And just to show you how biased I really am, I would not be surprised at all if another rabbit is produced from this particular top hat come results day.

(Dyor etc etc.)