Member Info for wyndrum

WNW, the results will give you the info you want. However if the holder is in profit currently they have 2 options. Sell and bank the profit and wait to see what the results are. Or buy (more) on the expectation profits/news will be sufficient to lift the SP.

Its impossible to know what the results are for us lot. All we can do is look at the news available and the circumstantial evidence that either supports or contradicts the official news.

As far as I can see it has been a consistent cycle of good official news, supported by the positive circumstantial events of stakes, patents filed, design wins, all within a growing market.

So, without knowing what WILL happen, it does not seem unreasonable to expect good news rather than bad. Esp when the company has mkt cap of less than £10m

If Jan (sorry Jan if i have this wrong), is looking for a lower entry price there are problems with the psychology.

If you have sold in the way as an example Jan has, then to buy back in on a price fall on the conditions mentioned, means ultimately and short term, you would expect the SP to rise. The "problem" with that given spreads, is that the SP could rise dramatically with no notice ie RNS, and you miss out on the profit.

If however the SP has fallen enough for you to buy there is probably a reason, a RI would suggest that sales have been below expectation and overall profit is put back and in doubt. Who would buy then?

Or the price falls back because the sales news is not as good as expected and basically the result is the same as above, maybe not as dramatic but now a longer timeframe. again, who would buy then?

Its ok buying on the dips on a big, profitable company but much, much more risky on a small loss making co. like CPX

fwiw I am always happier to buy more as the SP appreciates rather than when its falling. (its far less riskier to over all profit margins).

As always when i read someone wants the SP to fall and is long, then they really want to be careful for what they wish for.

(imo, dyor etc)

The recent price action has caused a compression in the trading range.

we need a close above 12.6p but ideally 13p to confirm the upward move.

on the downside a close below 10.9p would be bearish. (imo, dyor etc)

Small retrace to the new support. I imagine MM's are looking to see how strong the underlying support is after this recent rise.

Not the worse place to top up/buy in (dyor etc)

I take it you are short Jan?

Chris all you say is fine, but there are too many assumptions in your statement for me.

This board is full of multi-,multi billion £ valuations. Given its less than £300m says very clearly is that the market does not think so.

It probably is like most here, inasmuch as progress does seem to being made, but with the company's history they are nit going to get burned twice, so its more cautious.

You may well turn out to be right in your forecast but please accept all of your assumptions have to come true.

You are forecasting the future with imperfect knowledge based on a company that has misled investors previously on data and timelines.

You seem to believe whatever the BoD tell you. Thas's a big risk.

Look at any company that has had a share price collapse and then read the previous RNS's. None of them give an inkling to what was to come, even though they would have known.

Chris,

"My guess at the moment due to the SP inaction following all the trial news is that its an RI. (i do feel a deal would have been done by now if the data was their to support it.)So unless something changes I think most likely good (but not earth -shattering) news comes through on P1b, will allow SP appreciation to ... 100p? ish?"

So I think the Sp will appreciate 50% and thats "ominous" is it?

My point is, if AVCt are already there with the tech and its all done bar the shouting then the SP would not be 66p, would it?

Therefore, there is something holding it back. I am guessing its not done bar the shouting (the market actually wants to see the data) and also there is insufficient money for AVCt to complete the trial. Where is this money to come from? Where did the last injection of funds come from? or the one before that, or the one before that?

it just seems odd to me that you employ no critical thinking whatsoever, or at least it seems that way when replying to my posts.

I don't think I did Chris, please show what I said

What harrowgate? You mean its all about the money? Wow... if only we realised that sooner.

Monday is an unusual time for an RNS as usually nothing happens over the weekend,

Tues, Wed and Thursday are the most popular for positive RNS's

Lovely!

I think its getting to look undervalued. The galatica project supports the mkt cap throwing in Rukwa for nothing. (imo)

Chris , it was not a cheap shot as I did not know your history under AS and now CC.

As for critical thinking: assuming any BoD that is " extremely confident " means anything is imo very risky.

They can never be anything other than " extremely confident " no matter what they know. To put any weight on what the BoD imply is in my experience counter productive. (I am surprised you tajke this view actually.)

(Thats why i trust the market (amongst other things) more than the BoD. It tends to be a more reliable indicator than the ambiguous statements of any director.)

Yeboa, shoe mw where I am saying they will be sold out on the cheap?

You are assuming they will have a not-cheap deal in a few months. Based on?

Chris, never mind what AS did, had you listened to him you would have backed him based on what he said. (I am just using your own logic).

Just as an exercise, rather than assuming the market is as thick as mince and we can all see it more clearly, why not assume the market is "right". If they are, then does that throw up different scenarios?

You say: "Would raising £50m this week at 63p be the safer option? Well, certainly. Would it have been the most positive signal as to what was to come over the next six months or so? Absolutely not."

So you are assuming a deal is coming in 6 months and there is no need for any extra money and that this minimal raise "proves" that? So you are dismissing the "safer" option for a riskier one as being the preferred route? What if there is a delay in the trial? then what? Is that a reasonable risk? have delays ever happened in trials?

Thats why i have asked the question: lots of variables and unknowns that could have a material effect. I don't see any certainty yet in this enterprise

Yes Chris, pretty much. That is of course not entirely possible but this is the only potential benefit these BB's have is to exchange downside scenarios.

The more problems that can be identified allows potential solutions to them. If between us all we see all the downsides and can see reasonable and practical remedy's to any and all of them then yes all of those steps can be addressed within the confines of what we can know and reasonably surmise.

The biggest problem is still the money. (i am not sure everyone understands that yet), The latest RI is a sticking plaster

"It’s very simple, you back management’s belief or not, it shouldn’t take so much head scratching."

So clearly you were not here before AS then?

I have articulated my inability to see what is likely to happen. I am not doubting the management, simply saying I can't see what the next step is but am leaning towards a RI.

This latest relatively small raise is confusing for me.

It is the minimum to satisfy the new loan conditions, but does not give much extra time to carry on with the increasingly expensive trials and pipeline(s).

So, does that mean a deal is coming or another RI is coming?

My guess at the moment due to the SP inaction following all the trial news is that its an RI. (i do feel a deal would have been done by now if the data was their to support it.)

So unless something changes I think most likely good (but not earth -shattering) news comes through on P1b, will allow SP appreciation to ... 100p? ish?

An then the RI will be done for about £100m, which would only increase the shares to about 500-600m, so still not too bad and gives more liquidity and solve the cash problem at least for a while.

The problem for me, still is, how good is this tech really? You see too many small bio techs explode SP wise on seemingly less breakthroughs than what AVCt has going and yet... 62p is where we are, or mkt cap is about right?

So many unknowns, so many variables.

I am always amazed at the confidence many show here through their posts without first idea or knowledge about whats actually going on.

Yes thats (very) true VR, but again it may be being left to an all-in announcement as we are so close to results and updates.

I would be more thoughtful if we don't here anything next week as we would be in November and then it really does look late.

(imo dyor etc)

Bushy, the positive spin would be is that the tech is sooo spectacular that the NDS's are essential to getting market share of whatevr product the manufacturer uses our twch for.

As we all know mass production hits profits margins, you make .001% profit but sell millions/billions of the thing. So, in the first blush when you have something no one else has you can charge for it! (well thats the theory)

Well, its creeping up and the next target is to close above .47p then its .6, .8 and then 1.0p

Likely to see a quick move if/when .47p goes at 1.p comes into play which is an excellent risk reward.

(imo dyor etc)