Member Info for wyndrum

Chris, I DON'T KNOW AND CAN'T PREDICT THE FUTURE.

ok?

There are always 2 options. When we had the back and forth it was not clear to me how the market would react to the placing.

I always say that its just odds based. Do you want to bet you will roll 6 x sixes in a row? perfectly possible but the odds are against it. So, would you take the bet?

I know you think i want it both ways, but given I can't know whats going to happen I am always aware that the long(er) shot might happen and I have a plan to react accordingly.

I do try to be both honest and unbiased and open minded. Not everyone can say that.

My post last night saying I expect further gains got a lot of recs. thats not because all of a sudden these posters "like" me, it was just what they wanted to hear.

I often rec your posts even though I disagree with them because I can acknowledge your thought process and reasoning.

Chris, I have been broadly bullish since 32p was broken.

Charting works on a shorter timescale and the odds are influenced by the daily closing prices.

I stand by my interpretation that the market did not think a deal was imminent then as if it was the the SP would not be in the 60's as it was then.

And here we are, weeks later and there has been no deal and the SP is still in the 60's. What's your point?

I actually predict nothing, I suggest what i think is most likely on my view of the SP movement. and that will obviously on my timeframes change more frequently then someone who will wait and see how it all unfolds, win or lose.

I am acutely aware in these stocks that one false step by them can eradicate the majority of the individuals invested capital. That is where the risk lies and its huge, so i spend a lot, a lot of time looking at ways to minimis this risk.

Short(er) term trading has proved for me over the years to help bank profit against the invariable set backs that we all endure.

AVCT has been a free ride for me for a couple of years now and it has turned out to a very profitable stock by being able to trade further with the profits made during the LFT era.

There are always 2 outcomes, win or lose. If you eradicate losing then there is only 1 outcome left available.

I do this from charts, plenty won't have a bar of it and say it's stupid. I have tried to explain how it can work with the correct decision making applied with the correct mental approach. Its an alternative to LTH. if its not for you, then fine.

Chris, if you go back a few weeks you will have seen I already said the odds were in favour of a move in to 70's.

A move from 65p to 72p is about 10% (much less with the spread so its irrelevant from a trading perspective on a stock like this, if the aim is to make a small profit as the risk reward would be 50/50 at best).

Morning D, re: the RSI you and me both! useless, they asked for feedback so I pointed out the only indicator i use they have done away with.... great!.

Same as you... no response. so yes i too am using LSE

As usual Chris you don't read my post dispassionately. (And by the way the ATH was broken which suggests it will move up further, ie the trend up is not under threat.... ) I did not say that the break yesterday signified a support that could not be challenged and that 72p was now the all time low from yesterday going forwards.

Thats what made the small drop thus morning an opportunity to scalp a better profit margin for traders that may have noticed the 72p break yesterday.

For all I know the SP might finish above 72p? What i do know is that there was an opportunity to get in at 68.5p rather than 74p last afternoon

Its fallen this morning to a previous support at 68p. in the great scheme of things a few p might not seem much but its around 5%.

For the disciplined this is what you wait for to potentially wring out the most profit/gain you can.

Given the mood music at AVCT and expected news flow I don't expect this to last for long. (imo etc etc)

Just closed at the ath for the last 12 months so that bodes well now for the next move to the mid 90's plenty of room in the RSI presently. (Be nice if it went to 104p before liklely falling back

Market liked the latest presentation. (or at least did not dislike it!) which for AVCT is not nothing :0)

I am increasingly thinking that Rukwa is (from a market perspective) has been written off, or at the very least substantially written down. Currently Mkt Cap is £40m, which given the resource in the US and the imminent income looks to me where the current valuation lies. Given the constant draining cost of Rukwa without any idea or reasonable forecast of either resource valuation or timeline when the first commercial income will ever fall into HE1 coffers, I would not be surprised if HE1 would take any sort of offer now to get out of Tanzania. Just my thoughts

I imagine the MM's will need to raise the price to get the stock....

Flip, I admit to not knowing whats going on because it is a fact. None of us know about the science except in broad terms, how could we, it's cutting edge, so we don't know what problems get thrown up and how they are resolved until well after the event, (if ever)..

Likewise the finances. All the info is retrospective and the forecasts are vague.

I said a bigger RI was the most likely way of financing the burgeoning cost of more and more trials.

Because I have turned into the bogeyman here very few actually want to debate the merits or not of what i post, but reading the posts here since the review, the feeling here is that a near term deal is not likely as inferred by CC previously and that a RI is now starting to gain ground here as next.

At some stage many here need to understand that what CEO's say are deliberately vague and overly optimistic on money sales timelines and in this case research. They have no choice but to over-egg the pudding. As a result that fact of plc life should influence us PI's understanding of what they are more likely to mean.

So, here we are back with a CEO promising deals in the not to distant future not materialising leaving only shareholder dilution as an avenue for continuing the trial with great things promised in an undefined future, just like the LFT, just like P1a and now P1b and now new trials in the pipeline

Thats ok, its the nature of the beast but I am thinking that the sooner AVCT take a buy out the better for all concerned for maybe a £1-2b? (or relatively low figure as to what may be ultimately possible with this tech.)

Shareholders would get a return and big pharma would have the pockets to get to this market far sooner than AVCT and actually start saving lives. Otherwise this is a never ending Jam tomorrow scenario whereby investors pay out is forever put back and reduced dur to constant dilution.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts over the next few sessions as it might given an indication as to what it thinks is next.

Its not a risk but the time line suggests more cash will be needed....Plus ca change.

Ok Safe, if thats what you think.

(You do realise AVCt have nothing to do with my holding? As do all PI's, you buy the issued stock from a third party of which AVCT get nothing when you bought or when you sell/sold. So you perhaps you could get off your high horse there and make contact with reality.

As for making a few pence.... that always sounds so small, doesn't it, so inconsequential, grubby almost?

I have been in for over 5 years (so probably as long as ,most or maybe even longer than some here)

I rode it up from 100p to 256p with numerous trades on the way and made tens of thousands (at one stage i had 77000 shares which was a lump of money when they hit 285p)

Anyway, I guess it all is relative. I might put in £10k and take it out after a quick (if I am lucky), 10% profit but it sounds like a few pence say 5p, even though its a £1000 is not worth having?

Having traded I don't know how many times, it soon adds up and my latest holding even with the top ups is just approaching doubling, and I have a lot more than £10k in it now. and thats in just a few months.

If you had been a long term holder here since it floated (taking your argument to a logical conclusion you would have held for over a decade still be at a loss and huge dilution over the years to boot. Every RI it has been possible to buy below the asking price so there has been no advantage to having first dibs on this stock.

And I would remind you it was only 4 months ago when AVCT were in a very bad way with disposals wasting several £m and a death loop of finance repayments and I would guess you never saw the solution coming (although funnily enough i did moot that RH might fund the CLN loan to buy some time.)

So again, although i have managed to read this company's ups and downs pretty well, and backed my analysis with my own money, you won't have read any of it because you filtered me.

Well done you. It must encourage that smug feeling you have enveloped yourself in.

Sorry Parky, typo. mkt cap less than £20m

Paul? What? I simply re-iterated what I have been posting for some weeks. My posts always try to reflect the balance I see in SP appreciation or not. That has to be forward looking.

What I most often do is comment on one-sided thinking to show a reasonable, different scenario based on the same info so as to highlight potential bias.

As this is and always has been, a mixture of largely misplaced optimism and bile for any opposing view, my posts showing a less positive outcome have been taken to mean thats always my view. Thats not the case. it simply tries to highlight the other side of the coin and that we have nowhere near enough info to draw any firm conclusions. I genuinely believe that mindset increases the chance of success when betting on these high risk stocks.

1: Catastrophic to the SP so lower amounts have been tried as alternative not to spook the market.

2: goes back to point one, so this was "all" they could raise without causing a doom loop.

3: CC.. hmm...she would have to say that given P1a did not do the trick....but at the time p1a was going to be the precursor to all those deals and buy-outs.. remember?

4:agree -ish

I have no idea what terms are being discussed with whom or on what timescales, or whats going with the trial or when p1b will actually complete.

All of your assumptions may be correct but they are based on partial knowledge on a company that has been notorious for misinformation all the way through its history.

The belief and hope is CC is different. Hopefully it will prove to be, but hope is not a strategy.

"Anyone that’s following the developments since Hughes took on the director role and is still sat here scratching their head as to the reason Avacta raised £16m and not £46m is a bit dense."

Really? what evidence do you have that they could have raised £46m? Its just one baseless assumption after another to constantly reinforce an already set-in-stone expectation. Its a dangerous game to be so closed-minded.

Could it have been prior to Hughes, that AVCT would have struggled to raise this amount of money even at a very much lower SP? AVCT were imo desperate to break the negative funding spiral they were in. maybe Hughes said what he could do, on the proviso the investors would get a good quick return as £16m was tops? I don't know, but none of this altruistic. To assume its all one happy series of events, one after the other, is imo, highly unlikely.

B2H: " .....is indicative of the company expecting fund repayments to be effortless in the newly agreed schedule."

Effortless? That's some assumption. Based on the fact they raised the minimum they needed to, which can be read at least 2 ways.

Wow, Sales people must love you....

Thorn over subscribed is a very easy thing to obtain. The investors used previously made a good very quick profit. I believe this to be carefully orchestrated for them by AVCT. (i have no problem with this.)

I do find your 180 degree turnabout somewhat weird. (I have no argument with you changing your opinion from doubtful to expectant of profit, however I do find your utterly complete blanket approach to any news as to only one possible outcome strange, as it superficially looks like you have abandoned any form of critical thinking.)

Chris I am not tying any knots.

I have been buying since 32p all the way up. I think 100p ish is coming relatively soon and have made that known for quite a few weeks when the SP was much lower than where it is now.

The problem you seem to have with me is that I have been negative for many on this stock and the SP fell all over that period. In other words I called it right with my analysis. But that has left a false impression that i am only negative on AVCT. All i do is try to find stocks that will appreciate quickly. AVCT have fallen (at last) into that category.

What I don't do, just because i see it going up, is give up on looking at what might be next.

I think and have stated many time recently that i think 100p is coming soon,. You have interpreted that as negative.

That should alert you to your bias.

As is typical here, posters own individual emotions and bias are transferred in this case, to my posts.

I, for the millionth time, don't "care" about AVCT. I am not emotionally attached to the stock or the company. (I wish them well on their endeavours for all the reasons we all do, but that has nothing to do with my reasons for investing, or not, in them.)

Paul, I did not and have not assumed anything. Your bias has inferred that i have.

This is what we know. AVCT do not have sufficient funds to complete the trialsin motion and planned. Therefor money has to come from somewhere.

Its either a RI or some sort of deal. (or buy out)

The very recent raise was as low as it could be. Either because that's all they could get or they expect a deal soonish or, the results in the next few months will push the SP higher making another raise more efficient and less dilutive to shareholders.

My best guess (and that is all it is), is that a RI will come for a £100m plus and that sign of confidence will provoke a bid. (as opposed to a deal)

The money trumps the science right up until there is enough.

This was the smallest raise they could do to satisfy the loan arrangements. Why, is the the question. Until that is resolved it will hamper the potential valuation of the science.

I thought that was pretty obvious quite some time ago.