Member Info for wyndrum

Just that it looks a bit bearish with falls more likely than gains coming. 311 first target, then maybe 293. (Above 343 to break bearish outlook). But if its long term then it matters not a jot

Hi D, are you still in SNOW?

HNY Jez, it was also in the DM today with some analyst predicting $100 oil price per barrel in 2023 due to 2021 being a very poor year for oil discoveries generally, causing demand to outstrip supply and if this carries on.. yada yada yada....

Morning Wolfie and HNY to you (and everyone else here)

You asked If I have studied efficient market hypothesis.

The answer is no but I am assuming it is the idea that all knowledge about a company is already in the SP?

In which case I do agree with that idea.

I completely get why the Fundamental research approach is popular with some investors and at the same time often aggravates them when TA is used as an alternative.

My experience has shown that the "company" in question and the SP are not that closely related so just looking at fundamentals is pretty limited in finding winners. (I actually think there is an argument to say using FA is a far riskier and more gamble -orientated way of picking stocks to buy then using TA, which is quite contrary to what most FA investors would believe in their actions).

Just as a a made up example: ADV could potentially be a very profitable company but say the SP today was 25p and rose 21p on Spuding. Would it still be a good buy now? The company is still the same with all the same prospects as it was when it was 4p. So the company and its fundamentals are the same but at 25p its overvalued.

So now in my example, the SP is very important to whether or not the stock should be bought or not and the crucial bit for me is that that decision has nothing to do with the ADV the company and its fundamentals.

Then it opens up the whole rabbit hole of how to value a company, but even then, who cares? The SP is 25p and its still over valued bit it does not mean it won't go to 30p the following day.

I offer no answers but simply highlight that my approach is based on people and their predictable reactions to fear and greed. Bu, and its always overlooked when an TA discussion gets going, is that money management is just as an important aspect of that system as any chart pattern.

(When you then overlay holding long term for greater returns then I think it gets a a bit hazier still, but thats another discussion for maybe another day.!)

Anyway, 25p would be lovely!

:0))

Me actually,

(as its it is going to be a slow and short day...)

I asked at the time (some weeks ago now) why was Spud such a big deal, as i was not expecting anything SP-wise from it, and hey ho, its predictably dull.

My approach to buying and selling stocks is to carefully watch the SP because it acknowledges the psychology of the crowd.

It is the crowd that moves the SP. The crowd are Buying (or selling) on expectation of future events coming to pass.

The SP always reflects the future, never the present.

That's why (imo) traditional "research" has very limited reach in determining when and what to buy.

We all buy on the expectation certain positive developments will come to pass. The more obviously likely that this will happen, then the perceived risk is deemed smaller, so more people buy, pushing the SP up.

ADV as a company, is no more or less risky than when it was the minute before it started to Spud. hence the small (to date) decrease in the SP on the news. That's why the expression "buy the rumour, sell on the news" is so often true.

The buying has all taken place well before "milestones" are completed. Therefore it is, to me at least, perfectly understandable why the SP sees this as a non-event.

in an age of instant news, RNS's have to be beyond market expectation to move the SP. The "crowd" are informed now in a way unimaginable just a few years ago, so the masses know what's going on as quickly as the fund managers and professionals and can buy much earlier in the news cycle than before.

The outcome of this is that to chase big(ger) gains then the PI has to buy ever earlier in the business/news cycle increasing their risk profile.

Anyway, just a brief musing and fingers crossed it will be a good year for all here whatever stocks we choose!

GLA

I am not going to post there any More D. Its like "one flew over the cuckoo's nest"

Its over run with several Nurse ratchet's wannabee's

There is nothing I can see that can be gained there. And their collective insight (judging by the SP over the last 9 months or so), is actually worse than worthless.

But to everyone here, whatever Stocks you choose, may they all be winners! (Esp EVE!)

Happy New Year All

Well, I hope you apply D!

You would be a shoo-in!

Everyone here would give you a reference too!!

ATB Everyone and may 2022 be THE year

Merry Xmas

Well done SD...
ATB

And yet somehow Rottnest, you did not succumb and still had enough will to try and score yet another petty point.

Well done you.

Live, it was an interesting post covering many points that I responded to in equal length.

Still, no need to stop being petty just because it Christmas.

Dave,

I don't quite see it as you do.

All SP's of all companies are driven by sentiment.

Regarding Big boy traders, this is over rated as a SP mover. SP moves are driven mostly by buys and sells, and it can be for a whole host of reasons why both those actions take place on any given day. Its not usually or typically driven by 1 cohort.

Its not just short term people who sell. One day you will probably sell your holding, it could be that although it could go up further you see a better opportunity elsewhere, or you simply need the money for other reasons.

The whole pint of buying a stock is to sell it no matter what your time frame is, as its the converted cash value that is useful, not the price quoted on any share holding you have.

There is no guarantee, on any stock, that it will rise in value in the future. This particular stock is high risk (Myles, discription)

"Fair" valuations are dependent on various milestones being successfully completed

The huge rewards you see here, are not "in store" but simply based on a number of expectations being realised.

The difference between many Pi's and professional Investors is that they have a different appreciation of risk and assumptions which I think your post accurately demonstrates.

Strangey,

TA, is always hit and miss, the key is to hit more than miss, which I have done.

I have stopped the TA stuff because we have been stuck in a trading range for several months, (the moves can be traded if desired but I have found this BB is not the place discuss it.)

By all means criticise TA but I would suggest basing investment decisions on your current "feeling" , is hardly a viable alternative.

CR, the only people who "suffer" from FOMO are inexperienced PI's and they don't buy enough to move the SP.

FOMO is (imo) very overrated as a SP mover

Macca, I was not saying it was the end of the world .

I was just giving my view on why the market has had a relatively quiet reaction to what many here thought 9 months ago might put us north of 500p per share.

Still plumb centre of the trading range (104p-140p)

My take on the so-so SP response was that this was expected (by the market) and the rise was a relief that it has actually happened rather than "wow, didn't see that coming" type of thing.

The question marks however still remain. What is capacity presently? Do MEDUSA have the TT of the test? (it must be a question because we still await ABDX confirmation that the trials have been completed (and there are only what, 3 trading days of the year left before that deadline expires). AS also stated that APAC capacity would be in place by year end and too looks more likely than not to be missed to, given the date today.

"Avacta is working with additional distributors in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, and in other territories, to obtain the additional local regulatory approvals to place an IVD product with a CE mark on the market in those territories. These approvals are expected to be received in Q4 2021 which would allow for sales in those additional territories."

(That statement was made in the RNS TU on 30 Sept so it was a 3 month forward forecast.)

So the news is great because now we have a product to sell to the public, but the market in my view is still waiting for some sort of sales/profit forecast to be delivered and orders placed and for the promised global reach AS forecasted quite recently.

Until then there does not look to be that much action on the SP.

The other big driver will bean AVA6000 update but thats again looks to be early next year.
Anyway, thats my take on the current SP

RD, Public health is completely and utterly dependent on the Economy.

well, the news broke yesterday not today, so the smart moneywas buying then.

Today, its the newbies (Pi's) turn and they won't be turned on much by a little piddley company that has just announced they are moving a rig to a well site. (its a bit of deal for us but not so much for them, and I get that.)

Spud will be maybe something and I am hoping to be pleasantly surprised but the SP movement comes on real progress on drill results. (imo)

Its been fun for us but the wider market tend to be a bit more "lets see the money please"

Having said all that, lets wait and see where we close by tomorrow.

Yes, that must be it... Phew, you had ne worried there....

:0))

Chunky, yes, FDA approval has not arrived and Q4 is 6 trading days away from finishing. As a result the market has no idea when it is likely to be granted in the absence of any formal notification from AGL, so the market is taking some money off the table to get better/quicker returns elsewhere.

Its what it does.

Don't listen to them SGF, all great artists are only appreciated after there dead. (Oh gawd, you are feeling alright aren't you?)